Your Hometown Weather: March 14th-15th: Scattered storms

March 14th-15th - 2012
Wednesday evening into Thursday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy thunderstorms possible.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts likely in some spots - not everyone will experience rain.
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a popup shower or thunderstorm. A few hailstorms possible in the region.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 75-80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" locally heavier if a thunderstorm forms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" locally heavier in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is high

Friday: A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms

Confidence in this forecast is high
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A few thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and even a few reports of hail. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible.

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Monitor for some isolated severe storms.

No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: An isolated severe storm is possible.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: A chance for a severe thunderstorm with gusty winds and hail
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

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Thursday night : A very small chance for a severe thunderstorm..

Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Unlikely - but an isolated severe storm will be possible - slow moving cells
Thursday - Less than 5% chance

Friday - No

Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - No

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Warm weather will continue into the foreseeable future. Temperatures will be WELL above normal - near or exceeding record levels on some days.

This strange weather pattern will continue into next week.

There will be on and off chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Right now I can't find a strong signal for widespread severe weather. There will, however, be a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms that could produce high winds and brief periods of hail.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight (Wednesday).

The visible satellite imagery shows a few of the thunderstorms forming in our region (time sensitive image - taken around 3 pm on Wednesday afternoon)

Here are the expected high temperature maps for the next few days - this is highly unusual to see such a long stretch of warm weather in March. I am not sure I have ever witnessed anything quite like this - in March.

These next few maps are the temperature anomaly maps from the GFS model for the next few days - this is just incredible. The red and orange/pink colors indicate temperatures WELL above normal - anywhere from 10 to 30 degrees above normal. Day after day after day - again this is extremely unusual.

Click images for the full size view.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature maps tell the story. An incredible stretch of warm weather. This is what I would consider an extremely rare event for the region. Almost unheard of to see weather like this in March - for such a long stretch.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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