Your Hometown Weather: March 29th-30th: Storm chances Friday

March 29th-30th - 2012
Thursday night and Friday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Thursday night: Partly cloudy - a small chance for a shower or thunderstorm - mainly northern counties.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 50s to lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" if an isolated thunderstorm forms - most of us will remain dry
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms - a few storms could be on the heavy side.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 78-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - 0.50" in areas that receive thunderstorm activity
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for showers and thunderstorms before midnight.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 41 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% early | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - locally heavier if caught under a thunderstorm
Confidence in this forecast is high

Saturday: Mostly sunny and mild.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high

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Thunderstorms will be possible on Friday as a cold front approaches the area. There will be some instability - a few storms could become severe with gusty winds and hail. Lightning is always a concern when thunderstorms form. Weather Radars - click here

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If you have outdoor events then monitor radars - thunderstorms will be possible on Friday into Friday evening. Lightning will of course be a concern for outdoor events. Weather Radars - click here
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Updated temps and winds. Also wording on Friday's storm threat.

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a small chance for a thunderstorm in the area - most likely southern Illinois into Indiana. Chances are small

Friday: A few storms could become severe weather hail and high winds. Monitor for updates on Friday into Friday evening.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Friday night : A few storms could become severe weather hail and high winds. Monitor updates on Friday into Friday evening.

Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No

To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here

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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?

Tonight - No
Friday - There will be a small chance for a severe weather watch - monitor for updates

Friday night - There will be a small chance for a severe weather watch - monitor for updates

Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - Possible

To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here

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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here

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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Good Thursday afternoon everyone - another warm day - just one more for the books. This has been a long duration warm spell. Quite amazing.

A storm system will develop over the Missouri Valley tonight and move eastward on Friday. This storm system will push a cold front into our local counties on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the cold front. A few of the storms could produce high winds, hail, lightning, and heavy rain.

The Storm Prediction Center has not placed us in a risk - at least not yet. They are monitoring our region. They will update again later tonight (Thursday night/Friday morning). Check my Facebook weather page for the latest information tomorrow morning (I will post an updated video)

Here is the latest severe weather outlook for tonight (Thursday night) and then the second image is for Friday. Remember the yellow area means general thunderstorms are possible (most likely not severe) - the orange area is the SLIGHT risk area. Remember a slight risk means severe thunderstorms are likely to occur - scattered in nature.

Rainfall amounts will be scattered and will vary - any thunderstorms that form can produce locally heavy rain. Some areas will not pick up any rain at all. This should be a scattered type event on Friday.

Temperatures on Friday into Sunday will continue to be well above normal - here are the temperature forecasts for Friday - Saturday - Sunday. Mostly in the 70s and even some 80s. This is more like May than late March and early April.

Here are a couple of more maps for the Friday thunderstorm potential - these first couple of images are from a high resolution model - WRF - these are showing thunderstorms forming over our counties on Friday afternoon. I like this particular model - it does well with convection. Click images for real size view.

The green - blue - yellow - red colors - those are the thunderstorms forming along the cold front. These maps are for the late afternoon hours on Friday. Just to give you an idea of what the future-cast radar may look like on Friday afternoon (scattered storms in a broken line). Again - this is one models opinion.

Another high resolution model - another version of the WRF - these images below are from www.wright-weather.com - my favorite web-site for model data

Click images for the full size view - again this is for the 3 pm through 8 pm time frame. You can get the general idea of where storms MAY form on Friday afternoon.

Also for you weather buffs - here is what BUFKIT is showing for the atmospheric profile on Friday afternoon. This is a slice image of what the atmosphere is forecast to look like. I have circled the hail cape area in purple. There is quite a bit of CAPE (energy) available if thunderstorms were to form. That means they could produce large hail. Click the image for the real size view.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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The 48 hour rainfall forecast - scattered - not everyone will pick up rain and some areas could pick up locally heavy rain (under thunderstorm cells)

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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 2nd - 4th
Event: Thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A strong cold front with thunderstorms. Colder air behind the front is possible.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Saturday and Sunday should be nice days - a few clouds - MAYBE an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Mostly dry - WARM for this time of the year.

The focus on the extended forecast continues to be the chances for a thunderstorm event on Monday and Tuesday. Right now the models do not agree on the placement of the most intense weather. If you believe the EC model then we will all have a threat for severe storms - if you believe the GFS model then areas to our south may be under the biggest threat.

Right now I think we have a threat for thunderstorms right on into the Ohio Valley. This will need to be monitored closely. If the southern storm track verifies then areas to our south will have the best chance for severe thunderstorms.

Bottom line - watch for updates this weekend concerning the potential for thunderstorms on Monday into Tuesday over our region. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast.

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Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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