Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Mostly clear and cool
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Increasing clouds - a sprinkle or light shower possible. Can't rule out a rain/snow mix over northern counties towards evening - this will be conditional on temperatures.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 52-55 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45-50 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Cloudy with a chance of rain - rain may be mixed with snow over portions of southern Illinois into southern Indiana and northwest Kentucky.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: Mostly sunny and seasonable temperatures.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Can not rule out some snow over parts of our region on Sunday evening - no accumulation is expected and this is conditional on temperatures actually falling enough to have a mix or change over...
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Chance of some light snow over some of our northern and northeastern counties
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - Low chance
Friday - Low chance
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Short update - it has been a very long and destructive week of severe weather and tornadoes. So sad to see the death and destruction. Thoughts and prayers go out to all that have been impacted by these storms.
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The National Weather Service continues to conduct storm surveys in the region. It will take some time to piece together all of the information on storm tracks.
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Here are a couple of images show you the extent of the severe weather.
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This is the data from Friday - Storm Prediction Center imagery - the first image is from Friday - the last two images are from the Leap Year Outbreak - February 29th.
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Here are a couple of other images I found online on this outbreak - yesterdays.
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The SPC did a great job in forecasting the event. Click image for the full view size
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There will be a chance for some light rain or even snow on Sunday evening and Sunday night - the snow would be conditional on temperatures. Mainly over northern parts of southern Illinois into southern Indiana and perhaps northern Kentucky - this is highly conditional on temps being cold enough to support snow - data is mixed on this.
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For the upcoming work-week there will be some rain chances and maybe a rumble of thunder. I am carefully watching the track of an area of low pressure on Thursday and Friday. Watch for updates in case this system is stronger than forecast.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Short update - it has been a very long and destructive week of severe weather and tornadoes. So sad to see the death and destruction. Thoughts and prayers go out to all that have been impacted by these storms.
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The National Weather Service continues to conduct storm surveys in the region. It will take some time to piece together all of the information on storm tracks.
.
Here are a couple of images show you the extent of the severe weather.
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This is the data from Friday - Storm Prediction Center imagery - the first image is from Friday - the last two images are from the Leap Year Outbreak - February 29th.
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The SPC did a great job in forecasting the event. Click image for the full view size
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There will be a chance for some light rain or even snow on Sunday evening and Sunday night - the snow would be conditional on temperatures. Mainly over northern parts of southern Illinois into southern Indiana and perhaps northern Kentucky - this is highly conditional on temps being cold enough to support snow - data is mixed on this.
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For the upcoming work-week there will be some rain chances and maybe a rumble of thunder. I am carefully watching the track of an area of low pressure on Thursday and Friday. Watch for updates in case this system is stronger than forecast.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Significant rain is not forecast - no graphic.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Significant rain is not forecast - no graphic.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Chance for some light snow or rain/snow mix on Sunday night...
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Chance for some light snow or rain/snow mix on Sunday night...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. I am watching a system for the middle/end of this week that could produce some rain. Hints of a cut-off low pressure area. If that is the case then rain may linger and it may be more on the cool side vs warm weather. Right now any threat of severe weather appears very low. But - will monitor for changes.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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