Thursday evening into Friday update
.
For more frequent updates check out our weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.
Thursday night: Showers and heavy thunderstorms - locally heavy rain. Hail possible in some cells.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-1.00" but locally heavier amounts likely in heavier thunderstorm cells
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Cells that do form could produce heavy rain and a few reports of hail.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - locally heavier in thunderstorm cells
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Saturday: A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - locally heavier amounts in slow moving thunderstorm cells.
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Scattered thunderstorms over the coming days - a few of the storms could produce heavy rain, lightning, and hail. The risk for severe weather is small - but not zero. Main concern would be hail. Wind fields aloft are weak.
.
Monitor for lightning if you are planning outdoor activities and/or boating.
.
The wild card in the forecast will be rainfall amounts. Some areas will remain dry and some areas will pick up locally heavy rain (we saw on Thursday that some spots picked up over an inch of rain)
.
.
.
No major changes in this update!
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Thursday night: An isolated severe weather threat - mainly concerned about hail.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes widespread thunderstorms
.
.
Thursday night: An isolated severe weather threat - mainly concerned about hail.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes widespread thunderstorms
.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.
Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - Unlikely
Friday - No
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - Unlikely
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
.
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
.
HEADLINES: A warm weather pattern is going to continue for our region over the coming 7-10 day period. Mixed in with the warm temperatures will be spotty showers and thunderstorms. Where those storms do form you can expect lightning, heavy rain, hail, and some gusty winds. The severe weather risk appears low - but not zero.
,
Storms will be widespread tonight (Thursday night) across the region - a complex of storms will push out of Missouri into Illinois and Kentucky. This complex will produce heavy rain in some counties along with some hail reports.
.
Here is the satellite view from Thursday afternoon - you can see the bright clouds over our region - those are the thunderstorms that are dropping rain and lightning across our region.
.
Another shot from GREarth software - large complex of storms over Missouri and the Ohio/Tennessee Valley (Thursday afternoon)
.
.
And radar is showing the storms
.
.
The main severe weather threat will likely be hail. There is quite a bit of CAPE (energy in the atmosphere) in the hail level - that means that popup thunderstorms have the potential to produce pea size hail up to quarter size hail (possibly even larger in a few spots).
.
Again - not everyone will see rain. This is more of a summer time pattern than March. Quite unusual to say the least.
.
Here is what the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for thunderstorms risks. The yellow area is the general thunderstorm outlook - where storms are likely but mainly below severe levels.
.
The orange area is a slight risk for severe storms - remember that a slight risk means that a few storms will likely produce severe weather but it should not be widespread in nature. The second map is for Friday.
.
Check the SPC web-site for the most up to date maps - they move the risk zones around a bit during their updates.
.
.
The widespread nature of the warm temperatures and the long duration of this warm spell is what is most unusual. Many records have fallen over the last few days. Many more will fall in the coming days.
.
Here are a few of the record high and record high minimum temperatures from the past week - the red dots are the record high temperatures (the orange dots are the record high low temperatures - meaning it is the warmest low temperature recorded at that reporting station).
.
And this map is for the past week - ton of records broken
.
Temperatures will continue to be WELL above normal over the coming seven day period. Here are the high temperature forecasts
.
Amazing!!!
.
HEADLINES: A warm weather pattern is going to continue for our region over the coming 7-10 day period. Mixed in with the warm temperatures will be spotty showers and thunderstorms. Where those storms do form you can expect lightning, heavy rain, hail, and some gusty winds. The severe weather risk appears low - but not zero.
,
Storms will be widespread tonight (Thursday night) across the region - a complex of storms will push out of Missouri into Illinois and Kentucky. This complex will produce heavy rain in some counties along with some hail reports.
.
Here is the satellite view from Thursday afternoon - you can see the bright clouds over our region - those are the thunderstorms that are dropping rain and lightning across our region.
.
.
.
And radar is showing the storms
.
.
The main severe weather threat will likely be hail. There is quite a bit of CAPE (energy in the atmosphere) in the hail level - that means that popup thunderstorms have the potential to produce pea size hail up to quarter size hail (possibly even larger in a few spots).
.
Again - not everyone will see rain. This is more of a summer time pattern than March. Quite unusual to say the least.
.
Here is what the Storm Prediction Center has outlined for thunderstorms risks. The yellow area is the general thunderstorm outlook - where storms are likely but mainly below severe levels.
.
The orange area is a slight risk for severe storms - remember that a slight risk means that a few storms will likely produce severe weather but it should not be widespread in nature. The second map is for Friday.
.
Check the SPC web-site for the most up to date maps - they move the risk zones around a bit during their updates.
.
The widespread nature of the warm temperatures and the long duration of this warm spell is what is most unusual. Many records have fallen over the last few days. Many more will fall in the coming days.
.
Here are a few of the record high and record high minimum temperatures from the past week - the red dots are the record high temperatures (the orange dots are the record high low temperatures - meaning it is the warmest low temperature recorded at that reporting station).
.
.
.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
Keep in mind that some areas will see MUCH more rain than this - pockets of 1-3" of rain will likely occur in some of our counties over the next 48 hours.
.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
Keep in mind that some areas will see MUCH more rain than this - pockets of 1-3" of rain will likely occur in some of our counties over the next 48 hours.
.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
.
Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
.
1. Warm weather will continue into next week. The models are showing a significant outbreak of severe storms over Kansas down into Oklahoma and Texas on Sunday and Monday. This will stay to our west - for now.
.
We will then watch the jet stream close off a low over Texas and Oklahoma on Wednesday. This system will be slow to move into and out of our region. It may even drift north and west for a bit of time. These closed lows are extremely difficult to forecast.
.
For real world weather - this means a chance for showers and thunderstorms next week, as well. Perhaps a bit more organized towards the middle and end of next week - depending on the storms track.
.
Check out the 500mb wind fields for this weekend and next week - a powerful/strong trough in the west and ridge in the east (thus our warm temperatures)
.
This jet stream configuration will cause severe storms to our west this weekend and early next week.
.
Then watch as it closes off the low to our west - cut off lows are tricky to forecast because they are removed from the main jet. They can move slowly.
.
These images are from www.wright-weather.com - click for full size
.
.
We will then watch the jet stream close off a low over Texas and Oklahoma on Wednesday. This system will be slow to move into and out of our region. It may even drift north and west for a bit of time. These closed lows are extremely difficult to forecast.
.
For real world weather - this means a chance for showers and thunderstorms next week, as well. Perhaps a bit more organized towards the middle and end of next week - depending on the storms track.
.
Check out the 500mb wind fields for this weekend and next week - a powerful/strong trough in the west and ridge in the east (thus our warm temperatures)
.
This jet stream configuration will cause severe storms to our west this weekend and early next week.
.
Then watch as it closes off the low to our west - cut off lows are tricky to forecast because they are removed from the main jet. They can move slowly.
.
These images are from www.wright-weather.com - click for full size
.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment