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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms developing - becoming more widespread through the overnight hours. Locally heavy downpours possible in some areas. Radars - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy downpours possible. Not as warm. There may be a lull in the rain as a dry slot moves into the area - late morning or afternoon hours. Radars - click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 65-70 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Mostly cloudy with some showers and rumbles of thunder possible.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Partly cloudy - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce hail.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 68-74 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts possible in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is moderate
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Lightning is a concern for any outdoor sporting events - monitor radars. I can't rule out some small hail on Friday as the upper level low passes. Right now the severe weather risk appears low. Monitor for updates. Radars - click here
Lightning is a concern for outdoor activities. Also remember to avoid flooded roadways - this may be a concern over parts of southeast Missouri.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Tweaked the rainfall chances - temperatures, as well.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: A few storms could produce hail.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Thursday - No
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Thursday - No
Friday - Low chance - mainly for hail - right now the risk appears very small
Saturday - Low chance eastern counties could have some hail reports -
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
Tuesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Here comes the rain! A slow moving system has been pushing out of the central United States over the last few days. This storm system has produced copious amounts of rain to our south and southwest. Thankfully we will avoid the flash flooding and flooding threat.
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Check out the rainfall totals from the last few days - heavy heavy rains. Click image for real view size.
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Rain will increase tonight over our region - spreading in from the west and southwest. Precipitation will rotate in - slowly. By Thursday we should all be experiencing rain and some thunderstorms. There will be a dry slot move through the area towards late morning or afternoon - this should provide for a lull in the precipitation.
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You can see the dry slot here - the purple area - the blue area is higher moisture (rain areas) - the purple area is what we call a dry slot. Dry air punching into the storm - this helps shut the rain down. Click image for full view size.
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Here is the satellite view on Wednesday afternoon - the bright colors are cold cloud tops. Thunderstorms and rain.
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Right now the severe weather threat with this system appears very low. The main concern would be on Friday with hail. This is not for certain and confidence is low. I will monitor and update accordingly.
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The threat for tornadoes appears to be near zero with this storm system. Some good news.
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Rain chances will continue - scattered in nature - into Friday night and Saturday. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible during that time period.
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Temperatures will be a bit cooler over the coming days. This is because of the clouds and precipitation. We will still, however, remain above normal! This has been one heck of a warm month.
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HEADLINES: Here comes the rain! A slow moving system has been pushing out of the central United States over the last few days. This storm system has produced copious amounts of rain to our south and southwest. Thankfully we will avoid the flash flooding and flooding threat.
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Check out the rainfall totals from the last few days - heavy heavy rains. Click image for real view size.
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Rain will increase tonight over our region - spreading in from the west and southwest. Precipitation will rotate in - slowly. By Thursday we should all be experiencing rain and some thunderstorms. There will be a dry slot move through the area towards late morning or afternoon - this should provide for a lull in the precipitation.
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You can see the dry slot here - the purple area - the blue area is higher moisture (rain areas) - the purple area is what we call a dry slot. Dry air punching into the storm - this helps shut the rain down. Click image for full view size.
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Here is the satellite view on Wednesday afternoon - the bright colors are cold cloud tops. Thunderstorms and rain.
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Right now the severe weather threat with this system appears very low. The main concern would be on Friday with hail. This is not for certain and confidence is low. I will monitor and update accordingly.
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The threat for tornadoes appears to be near zero with this storm system. Some good news.
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Rain chances will continue - scattered in nature - into Friday night and Saturday. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible during that time period.
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Temperatures will be a bit cooler over the coming days. This is because of the clouds and precipitation. We will still, however, remain above normal! This has been one heck of a warm month.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU .
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Severe chances appear low for the next week or so.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Rain chances should end by Sunday - Sunday may be the PICK day of the weekend. Saturday may bring some clouds and a few showers left around.
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I don't see any significant outbreaks of severe weather in the near term or medium range.
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I don't see any significant outbreaks of severe weather in the near term or medium range.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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