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March 1st-2nd - 2012
Thursday evening into Friday afternoon update
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy - a few thunderstorms may develop late tonight. If storms do develop then they could produce a few reports of hail and high winds. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local media for updates.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Windy at times. A mix of sun and clouds. Thunderstorms possible early in the day and then another chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. A few storms will likely be severe with hail, high winds, and possible tornadoes. Monitor radars and listen for updates on NOAA Weather Radio and local media. Click here for local NWS Offices - for watches and warnings:
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 70-75 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-25 mph - winds could be gusty at times (gusts over 40 mph) - turning more west towards evening
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" - locally heavier amounts possible in heavier storms. Better chance of heavier amounts over our eastern counties
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. Whatever thunderstorms form during Friday afternoon will come to an end before 10 pm. Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 30 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: A few clouds - otherwise sunny and breezy at times. Boaters use care.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Wind: Northwest winds at 15-30 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Main concerns will be a few thunderstorms that may form later tonight or early Friday morning. If storms form then they could produce large hail and a report or two of high winds. Monitor radars and keep the weather radios on.
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Friday - another round of storms will be possible late morning into Friday afternoon. There is low confidence in where the storms actually form. It is possible that the most severe weather stays over our eastern counties and further east. Severe storms will be possible and/or likely on Friday - stay alert - watch for updates on local media.
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A volatile weather set-up and could produce significant severe weather in some of our counties. This will depend on whether the cold front can force storms to form. Stay alert and stay tuned for updates. I will update the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page - frequently.
Yes - there could be some severe storms over the next 24-36 hours. Best advice - monitor for updates and respond to any watches and/or warnings.
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BIG BIG wild card in this forecast! The wild card is whether we have to be concerned about severe thunderstorms on Friday. There are many different opinions - the consensus opinion is that the greatest risk may be a bit further east of our region. It will be CLOSE. A horse race between the drier air aloft and the moist air moving northward - then a cold front. Can the cold front trigger storms over Illinois and Missouri and then move them east into all of our region. OR - will the storms hold off until they get a bit further east in Indiana and Kentucky. Right now we do not have the answer.
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Bottom line - stay alert and monitor local media for updates. Be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions. Tomorrow's event is not for certain in all of our region. It is more certain as you go east - see the graphics below.
Local NWS Offices for watches and warnings:
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: A few storms may form later tonight along a warm front and produce severe weather - main concern is hail and strong winds. Isolated tornado - risk is low.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday night: A few storms may form later tonight along a warm front and produce severe weather - main concern is hail and strong winds. Isolated tornado - risk is low.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday: Severe weather is likely in the Ohio and Tennessee Valley - monitor for updates. I am uncertain just how far west the threat will be placed.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday night : Whatever severe weather occurs will move east early in the evening.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - very early in the evening
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible
Friday - Yes - severe thunderstorms or tornado watches could be issued.
Saturday - No
Friday - Yes - severe thunderstorms or tornado watches could be issued.
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Well - our region is still cleaning up from a deadly tornado outbreak that crushed some of our towns and cities on Tuesday night. The late winter Leap Year Outbreak will forever be remembered by many. Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted by these storms. It is heartbreaking to watch. I encourage everyone to find a way to give - there is information on where to give on the KFVS - WPSD - and WSIL web pages - Facebook pages. Please check those out.
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Our next weather concern arrives tonight. A warm front will push through the area. A few thunderstorms may form along and ahead of this warm front as it moves north through our counties. The SPC has placed some of our counties in a slight risk for severe weather later tonight. I believe the main concern will be hail. Although some reports of wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible. The risk is low - but I would encourage you to keep the weather radios on.
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Then the big elephant on the table. That is Friday. What will happen along a strong cold front as it moves through our region. Opinions can be found all over the internet on this subject. Some believe the most intense weather will hold off until it is through most of Illinois and Missouri - keeping the threat further east in Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Others believe it could be further west and encompass all of our region.
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Where thunderstorms do form they could produce large hail, high winds, and tornadoes. A few of the tornadoes could be on the strong side.
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I have a lower than normal confidence in where to place the line of storms tomorrow afternoon. My advice is to be aware that some counties in our region may experience severe weather on Friday into Friday evening. Listen for watches and warnings. Watch for updates tomorrow morning. I will update the Facebook page frequently - so will other local media (I encourage you to friend - on Facebook - some of these other local meteorologists - I have a high amount of trust in them and so should you).
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Right now I am thinking areas further east in Indiana, parts of Kentucky and Tennessee will see the greatest potential for severe weather. Friday is a "monitor for updates on local media and NOAA Weather Radio" type of day. If warnings are issued then take action.
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Here is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for tonight - the orange area is their SLIGHT risk zone - that means a few severe thunderstorms could occur. Don't focus on the exact placement because they will shift this around a little bit - they have already pushed it a little further south - but you get the general risk idea.
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Then here is the outlook for Friday at 8 am through Saturday morning at 8 am - our concern will be during the day on Friday - ending towards evening from west to east. The red zone is the moderate risk - this is where the SPC thinks the greatest risk will occur - again this could shift around a bit. Don't get too hung up on the "exact" placement of the risk outline. Just be aware a few storms could be severe on Friday. This will be a day to monitor current radars and updates.
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The SPC also does a probability product - this gives you an even better idea of the placement of severe weather - you can see they, like me, are more bullish as you go east in our region. Again - this could shift around - watch for updates on the Facebook pages - NOAA Weather Radio and local media.
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The first one is for hail - second for tornadoes - third for wind damage - all are quite significant.
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Click here for local NWS Offices - for watches and warnings:
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Saturday and Sunday will be dry and cooler. It will feel a bit more like March.
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Let's take a look at temperatures on Friday - Saturday - Sunday. Warm Friday! Then cooler - more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Nobody will complain about that.
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Here are some images from the tornado outbreak on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. You can see this storms that moved through Pulaski County, IL into Ballard County, KY then into McCracken County, KY then into Massac County, IL. It was on the ground over 26 miles and was rafted an EF2. Here is that information.
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Here are the radar images - http://www.usawx.com/feb292012tornado.htm
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Well - our region is still cleaning up from a deadly tornado outbreak that crushed some of our towns and cities on Tuesday night. The late winter Leap Year Outbreak will forever be remembered by many. Our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone impacted by these storms. It is heartbreaking to watch. I encourage everyone to find a way to give - there is information on where to give on the KFVS - WPSD - and WSIL web pages - Facebook pages. Please check those out.
.
Our next weather concern arrives tonight. A warm front will push through the area. A few thunderstorms may form along and ahead of this warm front as it moves north through our counties. The SPC has placed some of our counties in a slight risk for severe weather later tonight. I believe the main concern will be hail. Although some reports of wind damage and an isolated tornado will be possible. The risk is low - but I would encourage you to keep the weather radios on.
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Then the big elephant on the table. That is Friday. What will happen along a strong cold front as it moves through our region. Opinions can be found all over the internet on this subject. Some believe the most intense weather will hold off until it is through most of Illinois and Missouri - keeping the threat further east in Indiana, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Others believe it could be further west and encompass all of our region.
.
Where thunderstorms do form they could produce large hail, high winds, and tornadoes. A few of the tornadoes could be on the strong side.
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I have a lower than normal confidence in where to place the line of storms tomorrow afternoon. My advice is to be aware that some counties in our region may experience severe weather on Friday into Friday evening. Listen for watches and warnings. Watch for updates tomorrow morning. I will update the Facebook page frequently - so will other local media (I encourage you to friend - on Facebook - some of these other local meteorologists - I have a high amount of trust in them and so should you).
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Right now I am thinking areas further east in Indiana, parts of Kentucky and Tennessee will see the greatest potential for severe weather. Friday is a "monitor for updates on local media and NOAA Weather Radio" type of day. If warnings are issued then take action.
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Here is the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center for tonight - the orange area is their SLIGHT risk zone - that means a few severe thunderstorms could occur. Don't focus on the exact placement because they will shift this around a little bit - they have already pushed it a little further south - but you get the general risk idea.
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The SPC also does a probability product - this gives you an even better idea of the placement of severe weather - you can see they, like me, are more bullish as you go east in our region. Again - this could shift around - watch for updates on the Facebook pages - NOAA Weather Radio and local media.
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The first one is for hail - second for tornadoes - third for wind damage - all are quite significant.
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Click here for local NWS Offices - for watches and warnings:
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Saturday and Sunday will be dry and cooler. It will feel a bit more like March.
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Let's take a look at temperatures on Friday - Saturday - Sunday. Warm Friday! Then cooler - more seasonable temperatures for the weekend. Nobody will complain about that.
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Here are the radar images - http://www.usawx.com/feb292012tornado.htm
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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No time for this right now
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No time for this right now
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. No time for the extended - too busy with media and other weather items that are more pertinent right now.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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