Saturday evening into Sunday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: SPRING FORWARD - move your clock ahead one hour and change the batteries in your weather radios. Mostly cloudy with a few light rain showers
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s to lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours (earlier in the day over Missouri and Arkansas).
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 64-66 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% early in the afternoon and 70% later in the day | Rainfall totals: 0.25" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. No severe weather is anticipated at this time - will monitor southern and southeastern counties for any changes.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 35 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: South winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers or a thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 72-76 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 56 degrees.Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - 0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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There is a small risk for a few severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight - mainly over southeast Missouri into Arkansas - more uncertain as you go a tad east of there. Monitor NOAA Weather Radio and local media for any changes.
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There will be quite a bit of instability on Monday morning and afternoon - but I am a bit more uncertain as to whether storms will pop during the time of best instability. I am going to keep an eye on that time frame, as well.
Most likely no - but monitor for any changes later today - monitor for some lightning on Sunday late in the day into Monday.
Will monitor the chance for a few strong/severe thunderstorms over our southern counties on Sunday night late into Monday morning. Then again on Monday afternoon.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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Added the updated severe weather forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Sunday night : A few thunderstorms could be severe - esp over southeast Missouri. A small chance just east and northeast of there into far southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday: Monitoring the risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Monday, as well
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - Small chance
Sunday night - small chance
Monday - small chance early in the morning - will monitor the rest of the day, as well
Sunday - Small chance
Sunday night - small chance
Monday - small chance early in the morning - will monitor the rest of the day, as well
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - Low chance
Thursday - No
Friday - No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: SPRING FORWARD tonight - move your clocks ahead one hour and change the batteries in your weather radios!
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A nice Saturday across our region - quite a bit of sun and temperatures were not too bad. They did start out a bit on the cold side during the morning hours. But - with the March sun we saw temperatures rise into the 60s during the afternoon. Can't complain about that.
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Our next storm system is already on the weather map - it will push into our region on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This storm system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms back into the region.
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Here is the water vapor image - you can see the system developing to our southwest
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Chances for rain will begin by Sunday afternoon over our western counties and then spread east during the mid and late afternoon hours. Showers and rumbles of thunder will be likely across our region by Sunday night.
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area for parts of the region on Sunday evening into Sunday night. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern - although an isolated tornado can't be 100% ruled out. Monitor for any updates - this does not look like an organized outbreak of severe weather - more of a scattered type event - especially over Missouri and Arkansas.
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There is a lot of instability on Monday, as well - but more uncertain on lift. I will need to monitor Monday for a few severe storms, as well - CAPE values are over 1000-2000 in the region. That is sufficient for instability.
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Right now rainfall amounts are not forecast to be particularly heavy. It appears the atmosphere will be stable enough for thunderstorms to remain below severe levels.
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Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.25-0.75" range from Sunday afternoon into Monday. Of course there could be some locally heavier totals - especially where thunderstorms occur.
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The atmosphere will be a bit more unstable next week. I can't 100% out a few severe storms around Wednesday or Thursday - however, this is a bit beyond the range where we like to zero in on the potential. Monitor for updates.
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See the extended discussion for a bit more detail on the week ahead.
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Monday will bring 70s across our region! Warm temperatures. Warm weather will likely continue into all of next week.
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Here are the temperature departures for the upcoming week - these maps show you how much ABOVE normal temperatures are expected to be. Quite warm this week! Normal highs for this time of the year are typically in the middle 50s. We will be in the 70s during the upcoming week.
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The first image is for Sunday - then Monday - Tuesday......
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: SPRING FORWARD tonight - move your clocks ahead one hour and change the batteries in your weather radios!
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A nice Saturday across our region - quite a bit of sun and temperatures were not too bad. They did start out a bit on the cold side during the morning hours. But - with the March sun we saw temperatures rise into the 60s during the afternoon. Can't complain about that.
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Our next storm system is already on the weather map - it will push into our region on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. This storm system will bring a chance for showers and thunderstorms back into the region.
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Here is the water vapor image - you can see the system developing to our southwest
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Chances for rain will begin by Sunday afternoon over our western counties and then spread east during the mid and late afternoon hours. Showers and rumbles of thunder will be likely across our region by Sunday night.
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk area for parts of the region on Sunday evening into Sunday night. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main concern - although an isolated tornado can't be 100% ruled out. Monitor for any updates - this does not look like an organized outbreak of severe weather - more of a scattered type event - especially over Missouri and Arkansas.
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There is a lot of instability on Monday, as well - but more uncertain on lift. I will need to monitor Monday for a few severe storms, as well - CAPE values are over 1000-2000 in the region. That is sufficient for instability.
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Right now rainfall amounts are not forecast to be particularly heavy. It appears the atmosphere will be stable enough for thunderstorms to remain below severe levels.
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Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.25-0.75" range from Sunday afternoon into Monday. Of course there could be some locally heavier totals - especially where thunderstorms occur.
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The atmosphere will be a bit more unstable next week. I can't 100% out a few severe storms around Wednesday or Thursday - however, this is a bit beyond the range where we like to zero in on the potential. Monitor for updates.
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See the extended discussion for a bit more detail on the week ahead.
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Monday will bring 70s across our region! Warm temperatures. Warm weather will likely continue into all of next week.
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Here are the temperature departures for the upcoming week - these maps show you how much ABOVE normal temperatures are expected to be. Quite warm this week! Normal highs for this time of the year are typically in the middle 50s. We will be in the 70s during the upcoming week.
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The first image is for Sunday - then Monday - Tuesday......
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The long range forecast will be made up of above normal temperatures (surprise surprise). Seems to be the norm over the last few months. The majority of days have been above normal in the temperature department.
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There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms next week, as well. On and off chances. A few heavy thunderstorms can't be ruled out. Will monitor - the atmosphere will be warm and a bit unstable. The chance for an organized severe weather outbreak appears very very small (Monday through Friday)
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A stronger storm system may impact the region around March 18th-21st. Long way off - plenty of time to monitor and update the forecast.
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Here is the latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks. WARM WARM WARM!
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There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms next week, as well. On and off chances. A few heavy thunderstorms can't be ruled out. Will monitor - the atmosphere will be warm and a bit unstable. The chance for an organized severe weather outbreak appears very very small (Monday through Friday)
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A stronger storm system may impact the region around March 18th-21st. Long way off - plenty of time to monitor and update the forecast.
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Here is the latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks. WARM WARM WARM!
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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