Sunday night into Monday update
.
For more frequent updates check out our weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds. Very warm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Monday night: Partly cloudy skies. Warm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 40s and lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 39 degrees.
Wind: East at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: East at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Tuesday: A few clouds - very warm for March. A chance for thunderstorms during the late afternoon over our far northern counties.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Wind: South at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
.
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather
.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
.
For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
.
Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Tuesday: We will monitor Tuesday night for stronger storms.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Perhaps over the FAR northern counties - but more likely Tuesday night (just beyond this range)
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Perhaps over the FAR northern counties - but more likely Tuesday night (just beyond this range)
.
To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
.
.
Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
.
Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday night - low chance
Tuesday night - low chance
Wednesday - possible
Wednesday night - possible
Wednesday night - possible
Thursday - No
.
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
.
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
To view the interactive warning map - click here.
.
.
You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
.
.
The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
.
.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
.
HEADLINES: Stubborn clouds hung on today - thought perhaps they would break up a bit more - but they have not (at least in most areas). The clouds may linger into Monday and Monday night, as well.
.
Both Monday and Tuesday will bring above normal to well above normal temperatures - once again! No surprise there. We have been above normal for weeks on end. For that matter - months on end.
.
Check out these INCREDIBLE departure maps - this is for the month to date so far - this is how much above normal temperatures have been. Folks - this is historic.
.
.
.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Monday and Tuesday
.
Departures for Monday - WAY above normal temperatures
.
.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk for severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night across portions of the Missouri Valley - this the graphical outline below. Keep in mind that this will likely shift around some before now and that time period. These storms will be along a cold front that will be moving southward.
.
.
Here is their discussion on the storms threat -
.
This storm system will arrive into our area on Tuesday night into Wednesday night. See the extended discussion.
.
A few of the storms could be severe on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night - there is some uncertainty as to how much lift will exist.
.
I have also started the videos back up! You can view them here - each day <--click the link
.
You can also subscribe to my YouTube Channel - click here
.
HEADLINES: Stubborn clouds hung on today - thought perhaps they would break up a bit more - but they have not (at least in most areas). The clouds may linger into Monday and Monday night, as well.
.
Both Monday and Tuesday will bring above normal to well above normal temperatures - once again! No surprise there. We have been above normal for weeks on end. For that matter - months on end.
.
Check out these INCREDIBLE departure maps - this is for the month to date so far - this is how much above normal temperatures have been. Folks - this is historic.
.
.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Monday and Tuesday
.
.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk for severe storms on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night across portions of the Missouri Valley - this the graphical outline below. Keep in mind that this will likely shift around some before now and that time period. These storms will be along a cold front that will be moving southward.
.
Here is their discussion on the storms threat -
.
This storm system will arrive into our area on Tuesday night into Wednesday night. See the extended discussion.
.
A few of the storms could be severe on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night - there is some uncertainty as to how much lift will exist.
.
I have also started the videos back up! You can view them here - each day <--click the link
.
You can also subscribe to my YouTube Channel - click here
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
---
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
-----------------------------
.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.
Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.
To view recent records that have been broken - click here
.
.
---
.
Date Range: March 24th-31st
Event: Several systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
.Date Range: April 2nd - 4th
Event: Thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A strong cold front with thunderstorms.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
.
Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
.
. Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
.
-----------------------------
.
1. The next storm system will approach from the north on Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold front will push into our area and through our area - there will be a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.
.
Right now precipitation amounts don't look particularly heavy - probably in the 0.10-0.50" range - locally heavier if some storms form. Lightning will be the primary concern with thunderstorms.
.
A few of the storms on Wednesday could be severe. I will monitor and update over the next couple of days. Note that the SPC does have a risk area outlined for Tuesday afternoon and evening just a tad to our north.
.
CAPE values of 1500-2500 in our region on Wednesday - hail CAPE of 600. Lift index of -5. These parameters mean that some storms could be severe. We will have to monitor Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night - storms should be scattered in nature.
.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a warm front on Friday into Sunday. Again precipitation amounts appear light - precipitation will likely be scattered in nature.
.
Right now precipitation amounts don't look particularly heavy - probably in the 0.10-0.50" range - locally heavier if some storms form. Lightning will be the primary concern with thunderstorms.
.
A few of the storms on Wednesday could be severe. I will monitor and update over the next couple of days. Note that the SPC does have a risk area outlined for Tuesday afternoon and evening just a tad to our north.
.
CAPE values of 1500-2500 in our region on Wednesday - hail CAPE of 600. Lift index of -5. These parameters mean that some storms could be severe. We will have to monitor Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night - storms should be scattered in nature.
.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms will accompany a warm front on Friday into Sunday. Again precipitation amounts appear light - precipitation will likely be scattered in nature.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.
.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.
All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
.
.
No comments:
Post a Comment