Monday night and Tuesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: Partly cloudy. Above normal temperatures will continue. A few patches of fog possible. Don't forget the videos are now being updated each morning - view them here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 40s and lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: A few clouds - otherwise sun and very warm.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 76-80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: East/southeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a thunderstorm - late - mainly over the northern counties - closer to Mt Vernon and St Louis - Farmington, MO.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 38 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Partly sunny with a slight chance for a morning thunderstorm - northern counties. Then a chance for showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours. Windy at times.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 76-82 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 59 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns in our immediate local area for the next 24 hours.
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No major concerns through Tuesday evening in our immediate area. Some storms may approach our northern counties late on Tuesday night and early Wednesday AM.
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The wild card in this forecast will be precipitation coverage on Wednesday. The latest data is a bit more bullish on activity forming on Wednesday late morning and afternoon. A few of the storms could be fairly robust with gusty winds, brief heavy rain, lightning, and perhaps some hail. Monitor for updates.
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - far northern counties
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Wednesday: Can't rule out a couple of severe thunderstorms - marginal risk/low risk.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday night - Low risk the far far northern counties
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Tuesday night - Low risk the far far northern counties
Wednesday - Low risk of a watch
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Wow - the warm weather just keeps on going. This is the Energizer Bunny of warm spells. Temperatures remain anywhere from 10-30 degrees above normal over a wide part of nation. There is little doubt that March will be one of the warmer ones on record for this region. We will see where the final numbers end up.
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A storm system will approach from the north on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will push a cold front southward - along and ahead of the front there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday night across parts of Missouri into Illinois - this is mostly north and northwest of our immediate local counties.
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Here is that graphic
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The orange area is the slight risk zone - the yellow is the general thunderstorm risk outline. Again this is the TUESDAY and TUESDAY NIGHT outlook. We will have to wait and see about Wednesday. Instability is definitely there on Wednesday but wind fields are weak - risk appears low.
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There will be a chance for instability to gain some momentum on Wednesday in our area. CAPE values of anywhere from 500-2000 appear likely. That is quite a bit of energy. Wind fields are, however, weak. This will help keep the severe weather risk fairly low. I would not be surprised to see some reports of gusty winds and hail. Monitor for updates. Right now the SPC does not have us in a risk. We will see if that holds - either way the risk appears low. They will post an update later tonight concerning Wednesday.
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Here is what the NAM Model is showing for CAPE values over our region - decent instability. This image is from www.wright-weather.com
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Thursday should be dry as the front pushes further south.
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High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday over our region - WARM will be the word!
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It isn't warm everywhere - at least tonight (Tuesday night) won't be - check out the frost and freeze advisories to our east - northeast. The light blue and blue areas are the advisory areas. This does include parts of eastern Kentucky. You can read the text's here
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There isn't much snow left in the nation - much of Canada's snow has also melted. This could cause significant problems for river flow later this summer. Meaning - lack of flow.
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An unsettled weekend may be on tap for our region - into next week. See the extended for details.
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HEADLINES: Wow - the warm weather just keeps on going. This is the Energizer Bunny of warm spells. Temperatures remain anywhere from 10-30 degrees above normal over a wide part of nation. There is little doubt that March will be one of the warmer ones on record for this region. We will see where the final numbers end up.
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A storm system will approach from the north on Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will push a cold front southward - along and ahead of the front there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for severe weather on Tuesday night across parts of Missouri into Illinois - this is mostly north and northwest of our immediate local counties.
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Here is that graphic
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The orange area is the slight risk zone - the yellow is the general thunderstorm risk outline. Again this is the TUESDAY and TUESDAY NIGHT outlook. We will have to wait and see about Wednesday. Instability is definitely there on Wednesday but wind fields are weak - risk appears low.
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There will be a chance for instability to gain some momentum on Wednesday in our area. CAPE values of anywhere from 500-2000 appear likely. That is quite a bit of energy. Wind fields are, however, weak. This will help keep the severe weather risk fairly low. I would not be surprised to see some reports of gusty winds and hail. Monitor for updates. Right now the SPC does not have us in a risk. We will see if that holds - either way the risk appears low. They will post an update later tonight concerning Wednesday.
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Here is what the NAM Model is showing for CAPE values over our region - decent instability. This image is from www.wright-weather.com
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Thursday should be dry as the front pushes further south.
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High temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday over our region - WARM will be the word!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 and 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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First the next 24 hours - the second map is the total including Wednesday's rain chances
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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First the next 24 hours - the second map is the total including Wednesday's rain chances
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: March 24th-31st
Event: Several systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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. Date Range: April 2nd - 4th
Event: Thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A strong cold front with thunderstorms.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States - not sure about moisture return (whether it will be sufficient for severe storms - the GFS model is very bullish on storms - other models are not as bullish)
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Rain chances will once again increase Friday into Saturday - a strong system will produce a more widespread rain event in our region - especially on Saturday. Right now the severe weather risk appears low. I will monitor and update.
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Sunday - at least right now - appears dry.
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A stronger storm may impact the region early next week - strong cold front with thunderstorms. Cooler air behind it, as well. Long way off - plenty of time to update on that event. Models do not agree on the outcome.
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Sunday - at least right now - appears dry.
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A stronger storm may impact the region early next week - strong cold front with thunderstorms. Cooler air behind it, as well. Long way off - plenty of time to update on that event. Models do not agree on the outcome.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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