Your Hometown Weather: March 6th-7th: Rain chances will be on the increase

March 6th-7th - 2012
Tuesday evening into Wednesday afternoon update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Tuesday night: Partly cloudy
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle to upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 32 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild. Windy.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 68-73 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 52 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-20 mph - gusting into the 30-40 mph range at times
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with an increasing chance for showers and a few rumbles of thunder. Severe weather is NOT forecast.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: South winds at 10-15 mph - gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms likely - severe thunderstorms are NOT forecast.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 64-68 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.
Wind: Westerly at 5-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" locally heavier amounts - by Friday morning some counties may have picked up 1-2" of rain.

Confidence in this forecast is high
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Conditions are favorable for brush and field fires. This will last into tonight and perhaps part of Wednesday. Rain will help alleviate this problem on Wednesday night into Thursday.
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Also windy conditions - boaters use care.

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Some lightning will be possible on Wednesday night into Thursday night. Anyone with outdoor activities should keep that in mind. Severe weather is NOT expected.
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Boaters use care with the gusty winds.

The wild card in this forecast will be rainfall totals from Wednesday night into Friday morning. Appears most of our region will see at least 0.40" of rain on the low end and perhaps over 1" on the high end. Some questions remain on Thursday night - for rainfall totals. The good news is that I am not forecasting any severe weather for the next few days. Some rumbles of thunder will be possible.
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No significant snow in this short range forecast...
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No major changes in this update!

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

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Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.

Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No

Friday - No

Saturday - No

Sunday - No

Monday - No

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Many areas continue to clean up from recent tornadoes. The good news is that additional tornadoes and severe thunderstorms are not in our forecast. However, we do have rain in the forecast.
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A slow moving storm system will approach our region on Wednesday night and linger into Friday morning. Showers and periods of thunderstorms will overspread our region on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Some of the rain could be heavy at times.
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Conditions will not be favorable for severe thunderstorms.
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Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.40-1.00 range over our region - pockets of 1-2" of rain will be possible where training of precipitation occurs.
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Right now it appears we should dry out on Friday afternoon and evening - more rain may move back in by the weekend. Again - right now - it does not appear that severe weather will be a concern. Some good news.
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Here are the broad brushed precipitation maps for the next few days - keep in mind that most of Friday may end up dry (will see how quick we can get the system to move out). Time stamps are at the top of the page.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

I have also added a few new interactive city radars - including the Memphis, Tennessee area and the rest of the State of Kentucky.
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 5 days. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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This is the FIVE day precipitation outlook
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: March 4th-March 14th
Event: A few shots at precipitation - severe weather risk appears low (not zero but low).
Severe Risk: low
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details: A few systems to monitor - right now it appears the severe weather risk is low.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Uncertain - most likely some rain events
Details:
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. The extended forecast looks a bit unsettled. The good news is that I am not seeing a strong signal for severe weather - at least through the next seven days. I will be watching the weekend system - but right not it appears the severe weather risk will be to our south and west.
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Sunday into Monday look WET. Some of the data is more progressive - but I am thinking we see quite a bit of rain on Sunday and Monday.
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We will have several rain chances over the next 2-3 weeks. Fairly active flow.
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Check out the NOAA temperature forecasts for the next six to ten and eight to fourteen days. Above normal temperatures - shocking? Not hardly. That has been the rule for the last few months.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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