Your Hometown Weather: March 16th-17th: Continued warm and unsettled

March 16th-17th - 2012

Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Friday night: Partly cloudy a slight chance for a thunderstorm after midnight.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 75-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavier amounts possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 37 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier in thunderstorm cells
Confidence in this forecast is high

Sunday: Partly sunny and warm. A stray shower or thunderstorm possible.

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 77-84 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 58 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"

Confidence in this forecast is high
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A few thunderstorms over the next few days. Any thunderstorm that forms could produce locally heavy rain and lightning. A few reports of hail and gusty winds can't be ruled out. A small chance for a few severe thunderstorm warnings. This does not appear to be a setup where we would see tornadoes.
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Be aware of lightning if you have outdoor events scheduled.

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: Can't rule out a few reports of hail and gusty winds. Small chance for a few severe thunderstorm warnings.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes

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Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?Yes

Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - Less than 5% chance for a severe weather watch

Sunday - No

Monday - No

Tuesday - No

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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here

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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here

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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A warm air mass remains over much of the United States. Temperatures continue to be WELL above normal over many areas. This is a rare and unusual warm spell for March.
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Check out all of the records from the last few days - amazing!
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The red dots are the record highs - the orange dots are record high minimum temperatures - dates are at the top of the images
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There will be a continued chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. A more organized rain event appears likely towards the middle of the new work week.
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Thunderstorms that form in this humid air mass could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds, and even a few more reports of hail.
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It appears there will be less of a chance for precipitation on Sunday vs Saturday.
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Here is the Storm Prediction Center's severe weather outlook for Saturday - remember that this is updated several times a day and may change - visit their site for the latest outlook (see links below)
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The yellow area represents where general thunderstorms are forecast to occur - isolated severe weather will be possible.
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Here are some of the hail reports from the last 24 hours - widespread hail events were reported over the Ohio Valley on Thursday. We had several reports of dime to half dollar size hail in our region. All of the blue dots represent hail reports.
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Let's take a look at the high temperature forecasts for the next few days - WARM will be the word!
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How about the departures from normal? Just how much ABOVE normal will temperatures be? Quite a bit! Anywhere from 10 to 40 degrees above normal over the eastern half of the nation.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Remember that thunderstorms can drop heavier rainfall totals - this is a broad-brushed view of what is expected over our region. Individual thunderstorm cells can produce well over an inch of rain.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.

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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: March 14th-31st
Event: 3-5 systems to monitor.
Severe Risk: Can't rule out some heavier weather the last half of the month.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Warm to very warm conditions will continue.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium .
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Warm weather will continue into early next week - temperatures should remain above normal most of next week. It will be a bit cooler on Wednesday into Friday due to a closed upper level low moving over our region. This will bring a chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms - most likely Wednesday into Friday. Rainfall amounts may exceed 1" from this event.
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The severe weather risk appears low with this next system - however, this will need to be monitored in the coming days.
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Here is what that system looks like - these maps are from www.wright-weather.com
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The surface map for Tuesday night and then Wednesday night - click images to view full size
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Here is the upper level 500 mb maps - you can see the big trough in the west - see how it dips southward - that is the jet stream diving into the southwest - we are on the ridge side - thus the warm temperatures across our region. This big dip in the jet stream will cut off over our region towards the middle of next week - you can see that happening in the maps below.
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What does all of that mean to you? It means an unsettled pattern from Wednesday into Friday - we will have to see how fast the system departs.
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The latest six to ten and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks - above normal temperatures are forecast to continue!
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Also the latest seasonal temperature outlook - through June - odds favor above normal temperatures - long range forecasting is not an exact science. We will see how it goes.
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Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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