Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Partly cloudy with showers and a few thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms may produce large hail and gusty winds. Lightning and brief heavy rain, as well. Not everyone will get wet. Breezy at times. Monitor radars - click here for the radar page Also the latest NWS warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph turning more to the west overnight.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" the heaviest amounts will be in slow moving thunderstorms.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Morning fog will lift. Quite a bit of sun - a few thunderstorms may pop up in the heat of the day - very scattered in nature (mostly our southern counties in far southeast MO and western KY/TN) - I would not cancel any outdoor plans. Just monitor radars if you have any concerns. Warm with well above normal temperatures.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 76-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% - mainly southern counties of the region (Missouri and Kentucky/Tennessee)| Rainfall totals: 0.25" if a thunderstorm forms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: A few clouds - otherwise a night evening/night. Patchy fog possible.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Partly sunny and very warm
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 78-85 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 64 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph64
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (Friday) could be severe. Large hail and gusty winds - brief heavy rain and lightning is the main concern. There is a very slight chance for a tornado. The wind fields are weak. Bigger concern would be hail - with the most intense cells. Monitor radars - click here for the radar page
Also the latest NWS warnings - click here
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Monitor the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (Friday) - Saturday will bring just a small chance for a few thunderstorms - mostly dry across the region.
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The wild card in this forecast is whether or not a few thunderstorms pop up again on Saturday - right now it appears a small chance should be included in the forecast. I think 90% of the area will be dry on Saturday and Sunday. If you have any outdoor plans then have fun and enjoy the warm temperatures - if you sense a thunderstorm has formed then check radar.
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Yes - a few thunderstorms could become severe with large hail and gusty winds. A very small chance for a tornado..
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Friday night: Yes - a few thunderstorms could become severe with large hail and gusty winds. A very small chance for a tornado..
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. There may be a report or two of hail over our southern counties - Missouri Bootheel into west KY and west TN.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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This afternoon and Tonight - A watch may have to be issued
Saturday - Small chance for our southern counties.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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This afternoon and Tonight - A watch may have to be issued
Saturday - Small chance for our southern counties.
Sunday - No
Monday - Possible - monitor for updates
Tuesday - Possible - monitor for updates
Wednesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Happy Friday to all of the weather enthusiasts - I hope that you are finding the blog easy to navigate. I have tried to divide everything up for quick viewing. If you have any requests or suggestions then just let me know. Note that you can now SUBSCRIBE to the blog - when I update the blog once a day then you will receive an email alerting you to the new blog update.
Okay - let's take a look at the weather headlines. The main concern will be the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (Friday). There will be quite a bit of instability in the region. High resolution models are developing a broken line of thunderstorms over our local counties after 2 pm this afternoon.
You can see here on the visible satellite image - from late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon that there is plenty of sunshine over our region - remember that sun heats up the ground and the atmosphere - this allows more energy to build. Energy that thunderstorms use once they form.
The satellite image shows clouds (not precipitation)
Wind fields are weak with this system - that means that the threat for tornadoes will be rather low. There is enough instability, however, the raise a concern for large hail. We may see a severe weather watch issued for our region this afternoon and evening - we also may see a few severe weather warnings being issued.
Again - the main concern will be hail and high winds - lightning and brief heavy rain. If you have outdoor sporting events planned - or other outdoor events - then monitor the radars for storm movement and development this afternoon and evening.
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Let's take a look at what the HRRR high resolution model is showing for this afternoon - now keep in mind this is a "forecast" radar view - this is what that particular model believes will happen. You see a broken line of thunderstorms forming over Indiana and back into Missouri - the line then moves southeast across our region. Again - a few of these storms could produce severe weather.
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This is the 3 pm forecast view
This is the 5 pm view - give or take an hour
This is the 6 pm - 8 pm time frame
This is the radar view between 8 pm and 10 pm - again keep in mind this is a FORECAST from a model of what the radar might look like.
Both Saturday and Sunday appear 90% dry. The only fly in the ointment will be a small chance for a few popup thunderstorms on Saturday - this would most likely occur over our southern counties - say from the Missouri Bootheel into part of west Kentucky - southward. I would not cancel any outdoor activities. I would simply check radars from time to time if you see a dark cloud forming - a towering cumulus cloud forming.
Temperatures will be very warm for this time of the year (nothing new there). Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 70s towards the middle 80s. Amazing stretch of warm weather over the past month.
Here are the high temperature forecast maps for Saturday into Monday
How about the anomaly maps - how much ABOVE normal will temperatures be? Keep in mind that normal high temperatures are around the 60-64 degree mark for this time of the year.
Saturday - WELL above normal
And Sunday - WELL above normal temperatures (even higher!)
See the extended forecast for next weeks storm potential.
Don't forget that you can view almost all of these maps by going to
www.weatherobservatory.com
Then click on 7 Day Forecast (this will bring up hundreds of weather maps)
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HEADLINES: Happy Friday to all of the weather enthusiasts - I hope that you are finding the blog easy to navigate. I have tried to divide everything up for quick viewing. If you have any requests or suggestions then just let me know. Note that you can now SUBSCRIBE to the blog - when I update the blog once a day then you will receive an email alerting you to the new blog update.
Okay - let's take a look at the weather headlines. The main concern will be the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (Friday). There will be quite a bit of instability in the region. High resolution models are developing a broken line of thunderstorms over our local counties after 2 pm this afternoon.
You can see here on the visible satellite image - from late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon that there is plenty of sunshine over our region - remember that sun heats up the ground and the atmosphere - this allows more energy to build. Energy that thunderstorms use once they form.
The satellite image shows clouds (not precipitation)
Wind fields are weak with this system - that means that the threat for tornadoes will be rather low. There is enough instability, however, the raise a concern for large hail. We may see a severe weather watch issued for our region this afternoon and evening - we also may see a few severe weather warnings being issued.
Again - the main concern will be hail and high winds - lightning and brief heavy rain. If you have outdoor sporting events planned - or other outdoor events - then monitor the radars for storm movement and development this afternoon and evening.
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Let's take a look at what the HRRR high resolution model is showing for this afternoon - now keep in mind this is a "forecast" radar view - this is what that particular model believes will happen. You see a broken line of thunderstorms forming over Indiana and back into Missouri - the line then moves southeast across our region. Again - a few of these storms could produce severe weather.
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This is the 3 pm forecast view
This is the 5 pm view - give or take an hour
This is the 6 pm - 8 pm time frame
This is the radar view between 8 pm and 10 pm - again keep in mind this is a FORECAST from a model of what the radar might look like.
Both Saturday and Sunday appear 90% dry. The only fly in the ointment will be a small chance for a few popup thunderstorms on Saturday - this would most likely occur over our southern counties - say from the Missouri Bootheel into part of west Kentucky - southward. I would not cancel any outdoor activities. I would simply check radars from time to time if you see a dark cloud forming - a towering cumulus cloud forming.
Temperatures will be very warm for this time of the year (nothing new there). Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper 70s towards the middle 80s. Amazing stretch of warm weather over the past month.
Here are the high temperature forecast maps for Saturday into Monday
How about the anomaly maps - how much ABOVE normal will temperatures be? Keep in mind that normal high temperatures are around the 60-64 degree mark for this time of the year.
Saturday - WELL above normal
And Sunday - WELL above normal temperatures (even higher!)
See the extended forecast for next weeks storm potential.
Don't forget that you can view almost all of these maps by going to
www.weatherobservatory.com
Then click on 7 Day Forecast (this will bring up hundreds of weather maps)
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Keep in mind that most of this precipitation being shown should fall this afternoon and tonight (Friday) - anything on Saturday would be more scattered and perhaps closer to southeast Missouri Bootheel into West KY and west TN
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Keep in mind that most of this precipitation being shown should fall this afternoon and tonight (Friday) - anything on Saturday would be more scattered and perhaps closer to southeast Missouri Bootheel into West KY and west TN
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 2nd - 4th
Event: Thunderstorms
Severe Risk: Possibly.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A strong cold front with thunderstorms - the system may end up being cut off in or near our region - if so then it may meander around for several days. Cooler air behind the front is possible.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. All of the concern for the extended forecast will center around a strong system for the Monday through Wednesday time frame. There is a lot of uncertainty on where this system tracks. It appears that showers and thunderstorms will be possible in our region from Monday right on into Wednesday.
If the area of low pressure tracks to our west and northwest then the risk for heavier thunderstorms will increase. If the low pressure tracks further south then this may keep the severe weather threat limited.
Questions also remain as to how slow this system will or will not move eastward.
As far as the severe weather threat - this still remains in question, as well. The latest data does indicate that we will likely have at least some reasons for concern during the time frame mentioned above.
Bottom line - monitor updates over the weekend concerning the storm system for early next week. It may produce some heavy weather in our region. Cooler air will likely filter in behind the storm.
If the area of low pressure tracks to our west and northwest then the risk for heavier thunderstorms will increase. If the low pressure tracks further south then this may keep the severe weather threat limited.
Questions also remain as to how slow this system will or will not move eastward.
As far as the severe weather threat - this still remains in question, as well. The latest data does indicate that we will likely have at least some reasons for concern during the time frame mentioned above.
Bottom line - monitor updates over the weekend concerning the storm system for early next week. It may produce some heavy weather in our region. Cooler air will likely filter in behind the storm.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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