January 9th-10th: We are living in extreme times! No doubt about it.

January 9th-10th 2012
.
For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
.
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
.




.
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
.
Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
.

Monday night:  Mostly clear skies - cooler.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind:  Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high
.
Tuesday:  A mix of sun and clouds.  Becoming more cloudy by late afternoon with a small chance for showers (especially southern counties)    
Above normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 53-57 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20%  Rainfall totals:   0.10" 
Confidence in this forecast is very high

.
Tuesday night:  Rain becoming likely - a rumble of thunder - rainfall totals of 0.25-0.50" - locally heavier
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind:  East at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90%  Rainfall totals: 0.25-0.50" 
Confidence in this forecast is high
.
Wednesday:  Cloudy with showers possible.
Above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 54 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind:  Becoming westerly at 5-15 mph  
Precipitation probability - 70%  Rainfall totals:  0.10"-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is high 
.
.
Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms.  Click here to join
.


.


No major concerns.


.
No

.

No significant wild cards in this forecast!
.

.


.
No significant snow is in our short range forecast - can't rule out some flurries or snow showers on Thursday/Thursday night as the colder air moves in - especially northeast counties
.


.
.
No major chances in this forecast update


.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
..
Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here.
.

---
---- 
The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours

.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
or 
Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
.
Monday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Monday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.
Tuesday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.
Tuesday night :
  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  A rumble of thunder will be possible.
.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Wednesday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
.

.
To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

.
The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
.
To view the interactive map - click here.
.
.


.
HEADLINE: 
I spent some time yesterday showing you some maps about how bizarre the winter has been - thus far.  I realize that our local region has not been slammed by disaster after disaster over the last COUPLE of months (unlike most of the rest of 2011) - but what we are experiencing across the nation is just as extreme - just in a different manner.
.
Let's take a look at the number of record high temperatures over the past week - just INCREDIBLE.
.


.
Check out the month to date temperature departure map and precipitation departure map for the nation - WARM across the nation and DRY.  
.
.


.
Some have said that this is just a mild winter and have not given it much thought.  However, they have missed the bigger picture - the whole nation and surrounding countries.  This isn't just an isolated region where the weather has been a little bit mild.  We are talking extremes across the nation - from Alaska to Maine - across Canada - much of the United States and overseas, as well.  Surprising?  Not at all - we have been witnessing these extremes for the last decade.  One after another - after another.  
.
There is absolutely nothing normal or typical about this winter. 
.
And I am not alone in my assessment of just how bizarre this winter has been.  Dr. Jeff Masters mentioned the subject over the last few days, as well - here are a couple of quotes from his blog
.
Flowers are sprouting in January in New Hampshire, the Sierra Mountains in California are nearly snow-free, and lakes in much of Michigan still have not frozen. It's 2012, and the new year is ringing in another ridiculously wacky winter for the U.S. In Fargo, North Dakota yesterday, the mercury soared to 55°F, breaking a 1908 record for warmest January day in recorded history. More than 99% of North Dakota had no snow on the ground this morning, and over 95% of the country that normally has snow at this time of year had below-average snow cover. High temperatures in Nebraska yesterday were in the 60s, more than 30° above average. Storm activity has been almost nil over the past week over the entire U.S., with the jet stream bottled up far to the north in Canada. It has been remarkable to look at the radar display day after day and see virtually no echoes, and it is very likely that this has been the driest first week of January in U.S. recorded history. Portions of northern New England, the Upper Midwest, and the mountains of the Western U.S. that are normally under a foot of more of snow by now have no snow, or just a dusting of less than an inch. Approximately half of the U.S. had temperatures at least 5°F above average during the month of December, with portions of North Dakota and Minnesota seeing temperatures 9°F above average. The strangely warm and dry start to winter is not limited to the U.S--all of continental Europe experienced well above-average temperatures during December.
.
End of his comments...
.
You just can't make this stuff up.  2011 was one of the most intense weather years that I have personally ever witnessed and experienced.  Extremes have become the norm over the past decade.
.
I say all of this in hopes that you realize that although the weather may seem a bit quiet right now - it is actually another example of our extreme roller-coaster ride of weather that has plagued our region for years.  All of us should continue to make sure our families are prepared for extreme weather events - no matter what that event may be.  Snow or ice storms - the tornadoes we often experience in our region - the flood events - and yes, even drought.
.
Where does it go next?  That is the real question and honestly - the real concern, as well.  I said during the summer and fall that there was no reason to believe our extreme weather pattern was coming to an end.  Why would we believe that?  There have been no signals for that.  And the winter has proven that to be the case.
.
One wonders if we will have to endure floors or drought this coming spring and summer.  Remember that the 1930s brought big floods and big droughts.  The lack of snow cover across the United States is a concern.  Hopefully it picks up in the coming weeks - farmers need snow cover.
.
These type of wild weather patterns are not without precedent - the 1910-1920 time period - the 1930s and the 1950s were made up of extremes.  Floods and droughts - coldest and warmest.  These extreme weather pattern cycle.  Does it mean our weather is "broken" - or other?  Nobody can answer that question - climate changes.  It always has changed and it always will change.  Our we influencing that change?  Nobody can answer that question with certainty. 
.
Never a dull moment in our regions weather - even when it might seem a little boring.  What we have been experiencing across the nation over the past six to eight weeks has been noteworthy in its own way and only further deepens my believe that we are living through an extremely volatile time in history when it comes to the atmosphere and sensible weather conditions.
.
NOW let's take a closer look at our next storm system which arrives on Tuesday night and Wednesday.
.
Rain will spread across our region late on Tuesday afternoon and during the overnight hours on Tuesday.  Some locally heavy downpours can't be ruled out - severe weather is not a concern.
.
Rainfall totals will be in the 0.25"-0.50" range with pockets of totals in the 0.50-1.00" range.   Flooding is not a concern from this system.
.
A cold front will arrive on Wednesday and Wednesday night and will smack us right back into a more typical air mass for this time of the year.  By Thursday temperatures will likely be holding steady or falling throughout the day.
.
Let's compare Tuesday afternoon high temperature to Thursday afternoon highs - BIG difference - brrr will be the word from Thursday into next week.  There is some disagreement on just how long the cold air will stick around - see the extended discussion below
.
Images are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real size view
.

.

.
So - prepare for colder weather
.
Let's take a look at precipitation maps for Tuesday - Wednesday - Thursday.  Mostly a rain event (once again for our region).  Can't rule out some snow flurries on Thursday night and again over the weekend - this will be in response to several disturbances moving through the flow.  Right now I don't see any significant snow accumulation between now and Sunday.  See the extended for beyond that range (bottom of the blog page)
.
This Tuesday map - keep in mind the rain won't actually arrive until late afternoon and overnight (especially overnight hours)

.

.
Then here is the map for Wednesday morning
.
.
There could be a little bit of moisture left around as the storm pulls away and the colder air moves in on Wednesday night and Thursday - this could spark a few snow flurries - the map below shows this - don't get overly excited - flurries
.
.
Here is that piece of energy for Thursday - decent little disturbance moving through the flow - perhaps we can squeeze out a few flakes from this - snow showers.
.



.

We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 

-----------------------------

.
.
Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
.
If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.

.
.
.
.
You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
.
You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
.



.
.
No significant snow in our forecast - some light snow possible on Thursday...

Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps .  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here

Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps.  You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
.
If you are looking for wintry precipitation -  click here. 
.

.
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
.

.

We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
--- 
We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
.
.
---
.
.
Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium

.
.
Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient.  Potential for 5-8 precipitation events.  NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events.  Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient.  We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. 
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern - lending itself to possible more sustained cold from time to time.
Confidence in my forecast:  LOW



.
.
.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance.  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.

-----------------------------  
.
1.  Wellllllll - what do we do about the extended forecast!  The battle lines are being drawn between those who believe we are about to see the NAO go negative (meaning more prolonged cold weather vs the short transient spells of cold weather we have been experiencing) and the NAO going a bit more neutral - meaning the pattern doesn't change too much.
.
The ensembles are mostly pointing to the NAO at least dipping a bit - some show extreme dips and some show a more moderate dip.  Ensembles are an array of computer models - each one tweaked a little bit differently than the next in order to explore different forecast scenarios. 
.
My personal long range forecast has been for the second half of January to be colder than the first half - but that isn't saying much.  It has been an unusually warm January - as you already know.
.
The pattern should lend itself to more frequent cold snaps over the next 2-3 week period.  And it should also lend itself to those cold spells lasting a little bit longer than recent cold snaps.  Again - this isn't saying much because most of the cold snaps have only lasted a couple of days.
.
It may be that a true negative or neutral NAO will develop once we push a bit closer to the end of the month into February - if that is the case then more prolonged cold spells can be expected.  Until then we may continue with the semi-transient cold snaps.
.
Will it finally snow?
.
If you believe the GFS model then snow and winter fans will be rejoicing - shouting from the rooftops that winter is finally arriving.  The model shows numerous snow and wintry precipitation events between now and the end of the month.  But not so fast - the GFS has been dismal in its performance this season.  I would give it an overall grade of C+ and perhaps that is being generous.
.
On the other hand the EC model - which has been my favorite model all season - says that the cold spells will continue to be transient in nature over the coming 2 week period.  The EC shows a few snow shower chances as the cold air invades our region later this week and into the weekend.  It does not show any significant snow storms.
.
I would be leery of biting on the GFS due to its poor performance over the last few months.   Could it be onto something with a significant pattern change - much colder air lasting right on through the next couple of weeks?  I would answer that with the more likely scenario being the NAO going towards a more neutral or slightly negative turn.  This has more support from all guidance vs the extreme GFS solution.
.
The pattern will favor colder air than recent weeks and the pattern will also favor one or two bigger storm systems impacting our region after this coming weekend into the following 10-14 day period.  Whether we can combine the colder air with precipitation will be what to watch for.  
.
There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the coming 2-4 week period plays out.  As a winter weather fan I am excited by what I see on the some of the model data - however, winter weather fans have been burned this winter.  Until I start to see more agreement on guidance I probably won't get overly excited - yet.  
.
With that said - I am more hopeful than I have been all winter that we may finally see some winter weather chances in our local area.
.
Here is the latest six to ten day outlook for temperatures - below normal for the most part (once we get past Tuesday and Wednesday of this week)
.

.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
.



.
Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
.

To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
.

All other states- Click Here
.
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
.
.
Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
.


.

No comments:

Post a Comment