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EARLY UPDATE TODAY :) - got to be somewhere
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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Cloudy with a few showers - possibly some rumbles of thunder - rain may be mixed with sleet/freezing rain or drizzle along and west of Poplar Bluff to Evansville, Indiana - perhaps a bit further south and east of that line - check official advisories and remember that it only takes a small amount of ice to cause problems. Precipitation amounts will be on the light side. Check the latest advisories here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s over most of the area - some 20s over parts of MO/IL - further west and north you go in our region | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"-0.20" - locally heavier amounts along the KY/TN border areas
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Morning precipitation coming to an end. Colder.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 40 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southeast at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Increasing clouds - windy - warmer - a chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day.
Highs: around 58-62 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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There could be some light mix of precipitation tonight over our western and northern counties - the further north you travel towards St Louis or Mt Vernon the better chance of a mix - also the Missouri Ozarks - hill country. Otherwise light rain for the rest of us. Check the latest advisories here
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Remember that it only takes a small amount of ice to cause problems.
If you are going to travel further north in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, northern Kentucky tonight then check travel conditions. Some advisories have been issued for the potential of freezing drizzle.
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Check the latest advisories here
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The wild card in this forecast centers around where the rain/ice line will be tonight. Right now I am thinking the further north you go in southern Illinois and Indiana the better shot at some freezing rain and sleet. See the winter weather advisories for specifics. The roadways are very cold - it will not take much in the way of precipitation to cause problems. If you are traveling then check ahead to make sure they are not having any problems or concerns. Further south in the region - precipitation should remain mostly rain. Check the latest advisories here
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No significant snow is in our short range forecast...
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See the ice forecast above and below...
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See the ice forecast above and below...
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None
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. See above discussion on snow/ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Rumble of thunder possible over Kentucky and Tennessee
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. See above discussion on snow/ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Rumble of thunder possible over Kentucky and Tennessee
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe thunderstorms will be possible - especially the further east and south you go in the region - stay alert. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Thunderstorms possible late in the day
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Thunderstorms possible late in the day
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Hello everyone! Hope you have had a nice week of weather? We had a little bit of cold weather and a few mild days, as well. Not bad for January - most people are not complaining.
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We did see a cold front move through on Thursday - here is the 24 hour temperature change map - in other words how much has the temperature changed over the last 24 hours (this was taken on Friday morning) - you can tell there is a frontal boundary over our region.
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The next 24 hours will be a little bit unsettled. We have a weak system moving into the region which will spark some showers and even some mixed precipitation over the northern part of the region. Thunderstorms will also be possible over south central Kentucky down into Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Right now the threat for severe weather appears as if it will stay to our east and south/southeast.
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Here is the precipitation type map from www.wright-weather.com - the NAM model - gives you a rough idea of where some mixed precipitation may occur (that would be the pink area - green would be rain - white would be snow). Check the latest advisories here
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Rainfall totals between now and Saturday morning will be on the light side - most likely 0.10-0.30" across the region - more as you go east and southeast.
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The system will depart on Saturday leaving us with some clouds and cooler conditions - but nothing extreme.
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We will see a warm up on Sunday with windy conditions. This will be ahead of our next storm system which will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the region by late in the day and on Sunday night. Right now the best chance for strong or severe thunderstorms should be from central Kentucky down into Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is disagreement on this subject among forecasters - but I think there could be a few watches and/or warnings issued during the late day on Sunday into Sunday night - especially the further east you travel in the region (Kentucky/Tennessee). I will monitor and update accordingly through the weekend.
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Stay alert on Sunday - I expect there to be several tornadoes.
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Cooler weather will follow behind Sundays storm system. Nothing extreme.
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Here are the temperature forecasts for Saturday and Sunday (high temperatures) - you can see we cool off behind tonight's storm system but then warm up ahead of the next system on Sunday
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The Wunderground web-site had some nice snow photos this morning - here are two of them. Quite beautiful!
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Click images for real size view
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and
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Hello everyone! Hope you have had a nice week of weather? We had a little bit of cold weather and a few mild days, as well. Not bad for January - most people are not complaining.
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We did see a cold front move through on Thursday - here is the 24 hour temperature change map - in other words how much has the temperature changed over the last 24 hours (this was taken on Friday morning) - you can tell there is a frontal boundary over our region.
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The next 24 hours will be a little bit unsettled. We have a weak system moving into the region which will spark some showers and even some mixed precipitation over the northern part of the region. Thunderstorms will also be possible over south central Kentucky down into Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. Right now the threat for severe weather appears as if it will stay to our east and south/southeast.
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Here is the precipitation type map from www.wright-weather.com - the NAM model - gives you a rough idea of where some mixed precipitation may occur (that would be the pink area - green would be rain - white would be snow). Check the latest advisories here
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Rainfall totals between now and Saturday morning will be on the light side - most likely 0.10-0.30" across the region - more as you go east and southeast.
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The system will depart on Saturday leaving us with some clouds and cooler conditions - but nothing extreme.
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We will see a warm up on Sunday with windy conditions. This will be ahead of our next storm system which will bring showers and thunderstorms back to the region by late in the day and on Sunday night. Right now the best chance for strong or severe thunderstorms should be from central Kentucky down into Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama. There is disagreement on this subject among forecasters - but I think there could be a few watches and/or warnings issued during the late day on Sunday into Sunday night - especially the further east you travel in the region (Kentucky/Tennessee). I will monitor and update accordingly through the weekend.
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Stay alert on Sunday - I expect there to be several tornadoes.
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Cooler weather will follow behind Sundays storm system. Nothing extreme.
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Here are the temperature forecasts for Saturday and Sunday (high temperatures) - you can see we cool off behind tonight's storm system but then warm up ahead of the next system on Sunday
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The Wunderground web-site had some nice snow photos this morning - here are two of them. Quite beautiful!
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Click images for real size view
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and
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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See the ice discussion above and in the latest advisories being issued - I believe more counties will be added over parts of the region (more north than south)...
No significant snow in our forecast...
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See the ice discussion above and in the latest advisories being issued - I believe more counties will be added over parts of the region (more north than south)...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday - 5%
Thursday - 5%
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1. No big changes in the long range. The next system of interest will arrive on Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. There will be a chance for some strong/severe storms. The risk for severe weather has increased since the last update - especially over Kentucky into Tennessee - Mississippi - Alabama.
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ALL area residents should closely monitor forecast updates this weekend.
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A fairly active pattern of weather will continue into the next two week period - with several chances for precipitation.
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Here are some maps for Sunday - you can see most of the dynamics are just to our east. The first map shows you where lift index values will go below 0 - we typically look for negative numbers in the lift index maps to determine where some thunderstorms will be possible.
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These maps much be clicked to view full size mode - they are from www.wright-weather.com
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You can see the tongue of darker shading sneaking into part of Kentucky.
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The next map shows you the 850 mb wind fields - quite strong just to our east on Sunday evening - this is where the better shot at storms will be - further east in Kentucky. WATCH for updates on the placement of severe storms - it could shift west.
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CAPE Values - CAPE is basically energy - try to increase on Sunday to our east - not much on this model run - but perhaps enough to help fuel some severe storms - including tornadoes. Future model trends will need to be monitored and updates may be necessary as this event unfolds. The best threat for severe storms may be further east in Kentucky and Tennessee - further east and southeast you go the better the risk for severe storms.
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Another shot at rain on Wednesday or Thursday.
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ALL area residents should closely monitor forecast updates this weekend.
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A fairly active pattern of weather will continue into the next two week period - with several chances for precipitation.
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Here are some maps for Sunday - you can see most of the dynamics are just to our east. The first map shows you where lift index values will go below 0 - we typically look for negative numbers in the lift index maps to determine where some thunderstorms will be possible.
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These maps much be clicked to view full size mode - they are from www.wright-weather.com
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You can see the tongue of darker shading sneaking into part of Kentucky.
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The next map shows you the 850 mb wind fields - quite strong just to our east on Sunday evening - this is where the better shot at storms will be - further east in Kentucky. WATCH for updates on the placement of severe storms - it could shift west.
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CAPE Values - CAPE is basically energy - try to increase on Sunday to our east - not much on this model run - but perhaps enough to help fuel some severe storms - including tornadoes. Future model trends will need to be monitored and updates may be necessary as this event unfolds. The best threat for severe storms may be further east in Kentucky and Tennessee - further east and southeast you go the better the risk for severe storms.
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Another shot at rain on Wednesday or Thursday.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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