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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few strong storms possible - especially over southern Missouri.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 50s and 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South to southwest winds at 10-20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Showers and thunderstorms in the morning - turning colder afternoon hours - windy at times. A few storms could be strong - isolated severe with high winds and hail.
Near normal temperatures.
Highs: 50s early and then falling into the 30s through the afternoon hours | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Near normal temperatures.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10-20 mph - gusty
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Wednesday: Mostly sunny - colder.
Highs: around 38 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns. A few thunderstorms tonight could produce isolated severe weather - mainly over southern/central Missouri. Will monitor.
Should not have to take action - will monitor the threat for a few stronger storms tonight and tomorrow morning (Tuesday)
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Wild card in this forecast will be whether or not a couple of thunderstorms produce severe weather later tonight. Risk appears low but not zero.
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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No significant changes
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: A few storms may approach or exceed severe levels tonight - the risk appears low but not zero. Will monitor and update on Facebook..
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday night: A few storms may approach or exceed severe levels tonight - the risk appears low but not zero. Will monitor and update on Facebook..
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday: A few storms may be severe - strong with gusty winds and hail.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - some morning thunderstorms likely.
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - some morning thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: WINDY has been the word on the street today - wind wind wind. Southerly winds ahead of our next storm system have been kicking up to 30-35 mph during the Monday morning and afternoon hours.
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These winds will continue into Tuesday morning. On Tuesday morning a cold front will push through the region and this will turn the winds westerly.
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Our system tonight will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the local region. Rainfall totals should be on the order of 0.40-0.80" in most of our counties with pockets of great than 1" of rain likely in a few counties. The HPC has even outlined some 1-2" pockets over parts of Indiana and Kentucky. I think generally most of us will be below 1".
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As far as the thunderstorm threat goes - it does appear a few storms may approach severe levels and an isolated storm or two could exceed severe levels later tonight. It appears the best chance for severe storms would be over southern Missouri. We will monitor for any changes and I will post updates on Facebook if a severe storm materializes.
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The threat for stronger storms will shift south and east on Tuesday morning and afternoon - as the system departs our region. See the SPC outlooks for further information if you live in those areas. Here.
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Colder air will filter into the region behind the cold front on Tuesday afternoon - temperatures will likely fall into the 30s before nightfall. The roller-coaster ride of temperatures continues!
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See the extended forecast for long range projections.
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Here is what the WRF model is showing - these images are from www.wright-weather.com
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These two maps show you how the temperatures will drop on Tuesday. The first image is from around 7 am on Tuesday morning and the last image is Tuesday afternoon - see the drop in temperatures? The time stamps are at the top of the image (in Z time) - 0z Wed would be around 6 pm Tuesday night.
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Click images for real size view
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Speaking of the roller-coaster ride. Check out the high temperatures for today (Monday) and then watch as we push through the week from colder to warmer.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: WINDY has been the word on the street today - wind wind wind. Southerly winds ahead of our next storm system have been kicking up to 30-35 mph during the Monday morning and afternoon hours.
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These winds will continue into Tuesday morning. On Tuesday morning a cold front will push through the region and this will turn the winds westerly.
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Our system tonight will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to the local region. Rainfall totals should be on the order of 0.40-0.80" in most of our counties with pockets of great than 1" of rain likely in a few counties. The HPC has even outlined some 1-2" pockets over parts of Indiana and Kentucky. I think generally most of us will be below 1".
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As far as the thunderstorm threat goes - it does appear a few storms may approach severe levels and an isolated storm or two could exceed severe levels later tonight. It appears the best chance for severe storms would be over southern Missouri. We will monitor for any changes and I will post updates on Facebook if a severe storm materializes.
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The threat for stronger storms will shift south and east on Tuesday morning and afternoon - as the system departs our region. See the SPC outlooks for further information if you live in those areas. Here.
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Colder air will filter into the region behind the cold front on Tuesday afternoon - temperatures will likely fall into the 30s before nightfall. The roller-coaster ride of temperatures continues!
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See the extended forecast for long range projections.
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Here is what the WRF model is showing - these images are from www.wright-weather.com
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These two maps show you how the temperatures will drop on Tuesday. The first image is from around 7 am on Tuesday morning and the last image is Tuesday afternoon - see the drop in temperatures? The time stamps are at the top of the image (in Z time) - 0z Wed would be around 6 pm Tuesday night.
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Click images for real size view
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Speaking of the roller-coaster ride. Check out the high temperatures for today (Monday) and then watch as we push through the week from colder to warmer.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Tuesday - 0%.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Tuesday - 0%.
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday the 23rd - 0%
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1. The big story over the coming two week period will be the continued streak of mostly above normal days vs below normal days. January has turned out to be mostly above normal. A bit of a surprise. Thought for sure we would see more cold temperatures than we have experienced. We have experienced more shots of cold air - but they have been mixed with plenty of above normal days.
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A system will move into our region on Friday and Saturday and will likely produce some light rain. Right now temperatures look warm enough for that system to be mostly a rain event - will monitor for any changes.
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Temperatures will be a little tricky on Friday and Saturday - the cold air to the north will attempt to hold on a bit longer - but the warm air to the south will also be in a bit of a tug of war with the colder air. Cold air may try to hang on a bit longer. But I do expect by Saturday/Sunday the warmer air should start to win out and make a push further north - setting the stage for another rain maker early next week. We will see how it goes.
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A larger storm is possible towards the beginning and middle of next week. We will need to keep an eye on that one. Some of the data indicates a potent area of low pressure moving into the Missouri Valley with widespread thunderstorms in our neck of the woods. Plenty of time to monitor that system.
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A system will move into our region on Friday and Saturday and will likely produce some light rain. Right now temperatures look warm enough for that system to be mostly a rain event - will monitor for any changes.
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Temperatures will be a little tricky on Friday and Saturday - the cold air to the north will attempt to hold on a bit longer - but the warm air to the south will also be in a bit of a tug of war with the colder air. Cold air may try to hang on a bit longer. But I do expect by Saturday/Sunday the warmer air should start to win out and make a push further north - setting the stage for another rain maker early next week. We will see how it goes.
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A larger storm is possible towards the beginning and middle of next week. We will need to keep an eye on that one. Some of the data indicates a potent area of low pressure moving into the Missouri Valley with widespread thunderstorms in our neck of the woods. Plenty of time to monitor that system.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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