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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Increasing clouds with a small chance for a shower towards morning - precipitation may begin as a mix over the northern counties in the region.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0.05" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Rain becoming likely - especially late in the morning and afternoon hours - a clap of thunder possible. Rain may begin as a mixture over our northern counties - but change to all rain fairly quickly.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 53-57 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.20"-0.40"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Rain and some thunderstorms possible - severe weather is NOT anticipated.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s and lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"0.60" - locally heavier totals possible.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"0.60" - locally heavier totals possible.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Rain and a few thunderstorms - heavy downpour possible early in the day.
Highs: around 46-50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-15 mph with gusts to 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-1.00"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Chance for a light mix over our northern counties on Wednesday - it will then change to rain.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Our next rain maker is already moving into the area. High clouds have been increasing throughout the afternoon hours. This is the first sign of a change in the weather. Clouds will continue to increase tonight and rain will push into the region late on Wednesday morning and continue into Thursday evening. Rain should end by Thursday night.
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There may be a weak disturbance move through on Friday night - right now we will leave that time period dry and revisit the issue tomorrow.
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Here is what the general precipitation map looks like - the red area means thunderstorms (we ARE NOT expecting severe weather - but a rumble of thunder will certainly be possible)
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There is a chance that some of the rain may begin as a mixture of precipitation over our northern counties on Wednesday - it should quickly turn to rain. I will monitor for any changes in that part of the forecast. You can check the advisory map - here.
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Rainfall totals could be on the moderate side with this event - totals in the 0.80"-1.50" - with a good chance of heavier totals in some counties. See probabilities below...
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The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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This forecast is for Wednesday through Thursday night...
There will be a near 100% chance of 0.40-0.80" of rain falling - near certain chance - a near ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.80-1.00" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 1.00-1.20" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 1.20"-1.60" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.60-2.00" of rain falling - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.00"-2.50" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 2.50"-3.00"+ of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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Rain will come to an end on Thursday night. Friday should be dry.
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No extreme or severe weather is forecast for the near term. Some good news after our recent stormy weather.
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Speaking of extreme - January has been a warm one across the nation - where is winter? That is the question on most peoples minds. Although - many don't mind the mild weather.
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These maps show you the temperature departures from normal - MUCH of the nation has experienced a warm January.
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The scale can be found at the bottom and the right side of the map - you can see that much of the nation has been SEVERAL degrees above normal for the Month of January.
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The Paducah, KY NWS confirmed a tornado in Calloway County, Kentucky - you can read more about that tornado by clicking here
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Here is a map they produced and placed on their web-site (link above). They have also added some photographs to their site - please see the link above.
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Here is a great blog article on the Alabama tornadoes - how the media suggested there was no warning. Well - there was a warning - PLENTY of warning. The news media should strive towards accurately reporting on these events - let people know there ARE ways to receive warnings (NOAA Weather Radios).
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Here is the article - click here
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The Birmingham, Alabama NWS Office has been busy performing storm surveys over the last 2 days. .
Here is a Google Map image of all of the rotation tracks that passed through their area. Click image for real size view
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Some of their preliminary storm information can be found on their web-site - click here.
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I encourage you to check out some of the tornado damage photographs from Tim DavPhotography - click here. - Here is an example of one of his photographs. There is also quite a bit of information on James Spann's web-site (meteorologist from Alabama) - click here
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Major damage in Alabama from these storms - Arkansas, as well
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The Little Rock, Arkansas NWS has put this web-page up for those interested in their outbreak information.
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Here is the latest Storm Reports map from the Storm Prediction Center - storm surveys are still being conducted by the local NWS Offices - more tornadoes will likely be added to this map over the coming days. The red dots are the tornadoes.
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Local zoomed map from the Weather Observatory page - one tornado has been added in Calloway County, KY - that is not showing up on this particular map.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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This analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Our next rain maker is already moving into the area. High clouds have been increasing throughout the afternoon hours. This is the first sign of a change in the weather. Clouds will continue to increase tonight and rain will push into the region late on Wednesday morning and continue into Thursday evening. Rain should end by Thursday night.
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There may be a weak disturbance move through on Friday night - right now we will leave that time period dry and revisit the issue tomorrow.
.
Here is what the general precipitation map looks like - the red area means thunderstorms (we ARE NOT expecting severe weather - but a rumble of thunder will certainly be possible)
.
There is a chance that some of the rain may begin as a mixture of precipitation over our northern counties on Wednesday - it should quickly turn to rain. I will monitor for any changes in that part of the forecast. You can check the advisory map - here.
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Rainfall totals could be on the moderate side with this event - totals in the 0.80"-1.50" - with a good chance of heavier totals in some counties. See probabilities below...
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The explanation for each probability can be found next to the numbers. I am not a fan of probabilities - however, they do serve a purpose for those interested.
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This forecast is for Wednesday through Thursday night...
There will be a near 100% chance of 0.40-0.80" of rain falling - near certain chance - a near ten out of ten chance
There will be a 90% chance of 0.80-1.00" of rain falling - excellent chance of occurring - a nine out of ten chance
There will be a 80% chance of 1.00-1.20" of rain falling - likely chance of occurring- an eight out of ten chance
There will be a 60% chance of 1.20"-1.60" of rain falling - a good chance of occurring - a six out of ten chance
There will be a 50% chance of 1.60-2.00" of rain falling - a five out of ten chance
There will be a 30% chance of 2.00"-2.50" of rain falling - a three out of ten chance
There will be a 20% chance of 2.50"-3.00"+ of rain falling - a two out of ten chance
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Rain will come to an end on Thursday night. Friday should be dry.
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No extreme or severe weather is forecast for the near term. Some good news after our recent stormy weather.
.
Speaking of extreme - January has been a warm one across the nation - where is winter? That is the question on most peoples minds. Although - many don't mind the mild weather.
.
These maps show you the temperature departures from normal - MUCH of the nation has experienced a warm January.
.
The scale can be found at the bottom and the right side of the map - you can see that much of the nation has been SEVERAL degrees above normal for the Month of January.
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The Paducah, KY NWS confirmed a tornado in Calloway County, Kentucky - you can read more about that tornado by clicking here
.
Here is a map they produced and placed on their web-site (link above). They have also added some photographs to their site - please see the link above.
.
.
Here is a great blog article on the Alabama tornadoes - how the media suggested there was no warning. Well - there was a warning - PLENTY of warning. The news media should strive towards accurately reporting on these events - let people know there ARE ways to receive warnings (NOAA Weather Radios).
.
Here is the article - click here
.
.
The Birmingham, Alabama NWS Office has been busy performing storm surveys over the last 2 days. .
Here is a Google Map image of all of the rotation tracks that passed through their area. Click image for real size view
.
.
Some of their preliminary storm information can be found on their web-site - click here.
.
I encourage you to check out some of the tornado damage photographs from Tim DavPhotography - click here. - Here is an example of one of his photographs. There is also quite a bit of information on James Spann's web-site (meteorologist from Alabama) - click here
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Major damage in Alabama from these storms - Arkansas, as well
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The Little Rock, Arkansas NWS has put this web-page up for those interested in their outbreak information.
.
Here is the latest Storm Reports map from the Storm Prediction Center - storm surveys are still being conducted by the local NWS Offices - more tornadoes will likely be added to this map over the coming days. The red dots are the tornadoes.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Wednesday - 5% - our northern counties could experience a light mixture at the beginning of the precipitation event
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
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1. I don't have anything major to talk about in the long range part of the forecast. Several precipitation events will be possible over the coming weeks. I can't find a snowstorm to talk about. Our winter is slipping away.
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Here are the latest official 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks - temperature and precipitation. These maps represent the probability of temperatures being above or below normal and precipitation being above or below normal.
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See the time stamps at the top of each map
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Here are the latest official 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks - temperature and precipitation. These maps represent the probability of temperatures being above or below normal and precipitation being above or below normal.
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See the time stamps at the top of each map
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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