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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Cloudy with some snow showers or squalls developing after midnight. Windy/colder.
Near normal temperatures to above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Near normal temperatures to above normal temperatures
Wind: Winds turning to the northwest late - 10-20 mph by morning.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Windy - cold - low wind chills - snow showers and snow squalls at time - snow may be briefly heavy from time to time in the heaviest snow squalls. Thunder possible. Falling temperatures - some slick roads are possible where snow squalls are the heaviest. Some slick spots on area roads will be possible on Thursday and Thursday night/Friday.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 33-37 degrees and then falling into the 20s - wind chills into the single digits and teens. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 15-35 mph with higher gusts in open areas.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.05.0.20" melted precipitation - snowfall accumulations of strong dusting to perhaps as much as 1-3" in some areas.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Scattered snow showers - snow squalls. Cold - windy - low wind chills.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 15-22 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph - diminishing to 5-15 mph late
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.05" or less
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph - diminishing to 5-15 mph late
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.05" or less
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Clouds and sun - snow showers possible. Cold.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: In the 30s with wind chills in the teens/20s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Westerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.05"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Cold wind chills on Thursday and Friday - snow squalls/snow showers may cause some slick road conditions. Kids should dress for the cold weather on Thursday and Friday. Snow may briefly be heavy in some spots - especially true if snow squalls form. Thunder can't be ruled out in the heavier cells.
Cold temperatures will make low wind chill values on Thursday and Friday. Some slick roads can't be ruled out on Thursday into Friday over portions of the area. Kids should dress for the cold weather on Thursday and Friday.
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The wild card in this forecast will be the intensity of snow showers and snow squalls on Thursday into Thursday night. Thundersnow possible.
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Snow showers or snow squalls will be likely on Thursday...
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This will barely be a category 1 on the snowstorm rating scale - low end. It will have a bit more impact because of the cold wind chills and the falling temperatures combined with gusty winds and falling snow.
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Here is the impact scale information...
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Click on the image below to read
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Probability of snowflakes in the air on Thursday = 100%
Probability of a dusting of snow (1" or less of snow on Thursday) = 80%
Probability of 1"-2" of snow on Thursday = 60%
Probability of 2"-4" of snow on Thursday = 30% .
This will barely be a category 1 on the snowstorm rating scale - low end. It will have a bit more impact because of the cold wind chills and the falling temperatures combined with gusty winds and falling snow.
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Here is the impact scale information...
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Click on the image below to read
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Tweaked totals for snow.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow likely.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow showers possible.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow showers possible.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: A cold blast of arctic air will slide south into the Ohio Valley on Thursday into Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will start out in the 30s and fall into the 20s over our local region. Wind chill values into the single digits and teens will occur on both Thursday and Friday in our region. For this reason kids should dress warmly for school on both days - gloves would probably be a good idea. This will be a bit of a shock for the system. Bitterly cold air.
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With the cold air will come the development of snow showers and snow squalls on Thursday into Thursday night. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder in the heaviest snow squalls. Gusty winds will make the snow appear more dramatic in the heavier cells.
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As far as snow accumulation - right now it still appears that some snow accumulation is possible with our disturbance on Thursday. You can see the snow probabilities above - I am thinking most of us see snowflakes in the air on Thursday into Thursday night. Some spots will pick up a good dusting (dusting means 1" of snow or less). I would not even rule out some heavier snow totals if a snow squall band forms. This could produce 1-2" of snow and blowing snow in a few counties. Pockets of 2-4" not out of the question in a few spots.
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Bottom line - don't be surprised to see some snow accumulation in our region from this event. My experience with these type of events is that they can produce a bit more than expected.
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Some sort of advisory may be needed in some of our counties on Thursday. The NWS issues those products. Either way a winter weather event is likely to impact our region on Thursday.
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Roads could become slick as the snow melts at first and then temperatures fall - this could cause some icy spots on area roadways - especially on Thursday and Thursday night. Black ice is always a concern.
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Temperatures on Friday will struggle into the 30s - morning lows will likely be in the teens on both Friday and Saturday morning.
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Here are the wind chill maps for Thursday and Friday - note that this is a cold blast of air. Temperatures will feel even colder on the skin when combined with gusty winds. Bundle up.
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Here is the winter weather future-cast radar for Thursday morning - you can see the WRF is showing snow over our region.
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Temperatures over the weekend will moderate a little bit - back into the 40s or so. Not too bad for January. Seems like we can't get the cold weather to hold on much longer than a few days.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: A cold blast of arctic air will slide south into the Ohio Valley on Thursday into Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will start out in the 30s and fall into the 20s over our local region. Wind chill values into the single digits and teens will occur on both Thursday and Friday in our region. For this reason kids should dress warmly for school on both days - gloves would probably be a good idea. This will be a bit of a shock for the system. Bitterly cold air.
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With the cold air will come the development of snow showers and snow squalls on Thursday into Thursday night. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder in the heaviest snow squalls. Gusty winds will make the snow appear more dramatic in the heavier cells.
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As far as snow accumulation - right now it still appears that some snow accumulation is possible with our disturbance on Thursday. You can see the snow probabilities above - I am thinking most of us see snowflakes in the air on Thursday into Thursday night. Some spots will pick up a good dusting (dusting means 1" of snow or less). I would not even rule out some heavier snow totals if a snow squall band forms. This could produce 1-2" of snow and blowing snow in a few counties. Pockets of 2-4" not out of the question in a few spots.
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Bottom line - don't be surprised to see some snow accumulation in our region from this event. My experience with these type of events is that they can produce a bit more than expected.
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Some sort of advisory may be needed in some of our counties on Thursday. The NWS issues those products. Either way a winter weather event is likely to impact our region on Thursday.
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Roads could become slick as the snow melts at first and then temperatures fall - this could cause some icy spots on area roadways - especially on Thursday and Thursday night. Black ice is always a concern.
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Temperatures on Friday will struggle into the 30s - morning lows will likely be in the teens on both Friday and Saturday morning.
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Here are the wind chill maps for Thursday and Friday - note that this is a cold blast of air. Temperatures will feel even colder on the skin when combined with gusty winds. Bundle up.
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Here is the winter weather future-cast radar for Thursday morning - you can see the WRF is showing snow over our region.
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Temperatures over the weekend will moderate a little bit - back into the 40s or so. Not too bad for January. Seems like we can't get the cold weather to hold on much longer than a few days.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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RAINfall totals over the next 24 hours should be less than 0.25"
RAINfall totals over the next 24 hours should be less than 0.25"
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow is likely on Thursday into Thursday night. Some accumulation of snow can't be ruled out - especially if some heavier snow squalls form. This could cause some slick spots on area roadways. Snow accumulations from a dusting to an inch or two will be possible in the region from Thursday into Friday morning. The further north you travel in the region the better chance for accumulation of snow - although much of the area will likely experience snow showers and snow squalls. Pockets of 2-4" of snow not out of the question in a few counties.
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Snow is likely on Thursday into Thursday night. Some accumulation of snow can't be ruled out - especially if some heavier snow squalls form. This could cause some slick spots on area roadways. Snow accumulations from a dusting to an inch or two will be possible in the region from Thursday into Friday morning. The further north you travel in the region the better chance for accumulation of snow - although much of the area will likely experience snow showers and snow squalls. Pockets of 2-4" of snow not out of the question in a few counties.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures, as well. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant/wild swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures, as well. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant/wild swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Saturday = 0%
Sunday = 0%
Monday = 0%
Tuesday = less than 5%- will be monitoring the potential for a system in or near our region - right now looks more like rain than snow.
Wednesday - 0%
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Saturday = 0%
Sunday = 0%
Monday = 0%
Tuesday = less than 5%- will be monitoring the potential for a system in or near our region - right now looks more like rain than snow.
Wednesday - 0%
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1. No change in previous thoughts. Quick bursts of cold air followed by above normal temperatures. Seems like a pattern we can not shake.
Several cold shots over the next 2-3 weeks but with frequent rounds of above normal temperatures, as well.
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Several precipitation events will take shape next week - one around Monday/Tuesday and perhaps another one later in the week. Right now these still look like rain events to me. Will monitor. Focus in this blog update is the sharp cold snap for tomorrow and Friday - snow squalls, as well.
Several cold shots over the next 2-3 weeks but with frequent rounds of above normal temperatures, as well.
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Several precipitation events will take shape next week - one around Monday/Tuesday and perhaps another one later in the week. Right now these still look like rain events to me. Will monitor. Focus in this blog update is the sharp cold snap for tomorrow and Friday - snow squalls, as well.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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