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Here are my current personal local forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: An increase in clouds - some light rain possible late.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 30s - rising into the 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: South winds at 5-10 mph - gusts to 20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers possible.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 54-58 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Mild - cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.30"-0.80" - locally higher totals possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.30"-0.80" - locally higher totals possible
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: Cloudy with a few morning showers possible - falling temperatures through the day
Highs: around 48 degrees and then falling into the 30s | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-25 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: A few isolated severe storms possible in Arkansas.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - mainly on Monday night (earlier down in Arkansas)
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - mainly on Monday night (earlier down in Arkansas)
Monday night : A few isolated severe storms possible in Arkansas.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? YES - thunderstorms will be possible. Thunderstorms are not forecast to be severe over our immediate area.
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Sunday's weather has been a bit more tolerable than recent days. Our moderation in temperatures arrived right on time. This will continue into Monday - but don't get used to it!
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Changes are already on the map for Monday into Tuesday as our next storm system arrives from the west. This will bring with it an increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could approach severe limits over Arkansas - our immediate area should just see a few rumbles of thunder. The further south and west you travel the better chance for a stronger storm (again towards Arkansas.
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You can see on the water vapor imagery - the storm taking shape to our west
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area for GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS - general thunderstorms mean that there could be storms but they should remain below severe limits. Again - I can't rule out a few warnings down in Arkansas.
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Here is their outlined area for Monday and Monday night
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The bulk of the rain with this next system will fall on Monday night and Tuesday morning - although some showers are likely to appear on our radars as early as Monday morning (late Sunday night/Monday morning). These showers will be on the light side.
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The bulk of the general rain will be Monday night - with some thunderstorms embedded. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.40-0.80" are likely across the region with some pockets of 0.80-1.00" likely.
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Temperatures the next few days will take us on a bit of a roller-coaster ride. No surprise there - seems to be the pattern we are stuck in.
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Here are the Tuesday morning temperatures (Monday night and Tuesday morning) - see the tongue of warm air AHEAD of our storm system - then watch the cold air flow in as the storm passes us by. This would be on northwest winds - bringing in the colder air (southerly flow AHEAD of the storm brings in the warmer air)
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Again images are from my favorite source of model data - www.wright-weather.com - click images for real view size
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And I know we have experienced some "chilly" weather over the last few days. But just imagine THIS kind of cold! These are Sunday temperatures out in Alaska - BRRRRRR-delicious weather!
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Speaking of roller-coaster rides
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Check out these DEPARTURE from normal high temperature maps - remember these maps show you how much ABOVE or BELOW normal the temperatures will be over the next few days - see how we warm up ahead of our storm system on Monday and then slide downward on Tuesday - we look ahead to next Saturday - the whole nation warms up. Crazy winter - that is all I can say. We just can't get the cold to lock in.
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Sunday departures - first map below
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Now here is the Monday departure map
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Now here is the Tuesday departure map
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AND FINALLY - let's look ahead to next Saturday - I can almost hear the crying from winter weather fans. I feel your pain - I feel your pain!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Sunday's weather has been a bit more tolerable than recent days. Our moderation in temperatures arrived right on time. This will continue into Monday - but don't get used to it!
.
Changes are already on the map for Monday into Tuesday as our next storm system arrives from the west. This will bring with it an increase in the chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could approach severe limits over Arkansas - our immediate area should just see a few rumbles of thunder. The further south and west you travel the better chance for a stronger storm (again towards Arkansas.
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You can see on the water vapor imagery - the storm taking shape to our west
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The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area for GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS - general thunderstorms mean that there could be storms but they should remain below severe limits. Again - I can't rule out a few warnings down in Arkansas.
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Here is their outlined area for Monday and Monday night
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The bulk of the general rain will be Monday night - with some thunderstorms embedded. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.40-0.80" are likely across the region with some pockets of 0.80-1.00" likely.
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Temperatures the next few days will take us on a bit of a roller-coaster ride. No surprise there - seems to be the pattern we are stuck in.
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Here are the Tuesday morning temperatures (Monday night and Tuesday morning) - see the tongue of warm air AHEAD of our storm system - then watch the cold air flow in as the storm passes us by. This would be on northwest winds - bringing in the colder air (southerly flow AHEAD of the storm brings in the warmer air)
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Again images are from my favorite source of model data - www.wright-weather.com - click images for real view size
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Check out these DEPARTURE from normal high temperature maps - remember these maps show you how much ABOVE or BELOW normal the temperatures will be over the next few days - see how we warm up ahead of our storm system on Monday and then slide downward on Tuesday - we look ahead to next Saturday - the whole nation warms up. Crazy winter - that is all I can say. We just can't get the cold to lock in.
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Sunday departures - first map below
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Now here is the Monday departure map
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Now here is the Tuesday departure map
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Monday the 16th - 0%
Tuesday - 0%.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Monday the 16th - 0%
Tuesday - 0%.
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday the 22nd - 0%
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1. What can I say - the roller-coaster ride of temperatures is going to continue. A lot of data is showing more above normal days vs below normal temperature days. We just can't shake this pattern. This has been the most non-winter that I can remember.
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Snow lovers continue to be disappointed across much of the nation. There was some increase in national snow cover during the past few days (see map below) - but not enough to satisfy most.
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We continue to experience snow drought conditions in our local region - with little hope for improvement in the near term. I updated the long range outlooks above to note the potential for more above normal temperature days. This could mean better chances for thunderstorms. Something to monitor in the coming weeks. Sigh - not what winter weather fans want to hear.
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We will just have to wait and see if we flip in February and March. I have seen many mild winters that flipper the last half of the game. Will this be another one? We shall see.
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Winter isn't over - snow lovers should hold out hope - perhaps February will treat us a little better.
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Snow cover map - prob missing a few areas - but you get the general idea.
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Here is the official six to ten day temperature outlook (see dates at the top of the image) - you can see that the odds favor above normal temperatures from Thursday the 19th through Monday the 23rd. Broken record it seems.
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For those who love winter - don't look at the maps below. This is just down right ugly. The GFS ensembles for the next couple of weeks - all are pointing to above normal temperatures right on into the end of the month.
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Click images for real size views and dates - basically all of the orange and red means above normal temperature anomalies.
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Snow lovers continue to be disappointed across much of the nation. There was some increase in national snow cover during the past few days (see map below) - but not enough to satisfy most.
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We continue to experience snow drought conditions in our local region - with little hope for improvement in the near term. I updated the long range outlooks above to note the potential for more above normal temperature days. This could mean better chances for thunderstorms. Something to monitor in the coming weeks. Sigh - not what winter weather fans want to hear.
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We will just have to wait and see if we flip in February and March. I have seen many mild winters that flipper the last half of the game. Will this be another one? We shall see.
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Winter isn't over - snow lovers should hold out hope - perhaps February will treat us a little better.
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Snow cover map - prob missing a few areas - but you get the general idea.
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Here is the official six to ten day temperature outlook (see dates at the top of the image) - you can see that the odds favor above normal temperatures from Thursday the 19th through Monday the 23rd. Broken record it seems.
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Click images for real size views and dates - basically all of the orange and red means above normal temperature anomalies.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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