Your Hometown Weather: January 22nd - 23rd: Severe thunderstorm outbreak tonight

January 22nd-23rd 2012
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here

Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...

Sunday night: Showers and thunderstorms - severe thunderstorms likely with high winds and some tornadoes in the region. Stay alert for rapidly changing weather conditions. Listen to local media for the most up to date weather information. Listen to NOAA Weather Radio for the latest watches and warnings. Monitor radars here - http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Above normal temperatures

Lows: rising into the 60s and then falling into the 30s late tonight | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-30 mph - extremely high gusts possible in severe thunderstorms.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.50-1.00" locally higher in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high

Monday: A mix of sun and clouds - turning colder.
Near normal temperatures

Highs: around 45 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 10-25 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures

Lows: in the upper 20s and lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high

Tuesday: Sunny and warmer

Above normal temperatures

Highs: around 52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: North winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"

Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Major concerns tonight about a severe weather outbreak - see the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page for rapid updates - radars and to ask questions.
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Latest watches and warnings
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Monitor radars here - http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Paducah, KY National Weather Service Office

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Yes - you may need to take shelter if severe thunderstorms and/or tornado warnings are issued. Wind fields are very strong tonight - that means that damaging wind gusts will likely occur in some of our counties. Remember that meteorologists can't tell you which counties will be hit by severe thunderstorms until they develop. You will need to monitor radars and local media for the most up to date warning information. If you feel threatened then take shelter. Don't wait on a warning to be issued. Storms will be moving at speeds of 50-70 miles per hour.
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Monitor KFVS - WSIL - WPSD for the most up to date weather information via television and monitor local radio stations that you trust for weather warnings. We have some great weather teams in our region and they will be on top of the situation as this event unfolds.
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Monitor radars here - http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Paducah, KY National Weather Service Office - click here

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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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Updated severe threat

Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.

Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Yes - severe thunderstorms likely. Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday: Yes - severe weather is likely over portions of the region EARLY on Monday morning (moving out between midnight and 3 am) - areas further east will have to deal with it into the early morning hours - central and eastern Kentucky.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes early AM hours - then rain will be moving out before sunrise.

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Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No

Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.

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HEADLINE: The big story today is the severe weather threat for tonight (Sunday night). Thunderstorms will form along a cold front this evening and rapidly move east across our region.
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Thunderstorms will likely produce damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Hail can't be ruled out in the most intense cells - although hail is not the primary concern.
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Monitor radars here - http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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Paducah, KY National Weather Service Office - click here
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Here are the SPC storm outlook maps - the first image is the MODERATE risk zone - remember they have three levels for severe weather - slight - moderate - high. We are currently in a moderate risk - severe weather is likely later today/tonight.
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The above map is the tornado threat area - you can see our counties are included in the threat for tornadoes.
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This final map is for the high wind threat - the SPC has outlined our counties for a significant risk of damaging winds.
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This graphic below is from the Paducah, KY National Weather Service Office
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Area residents should pay close attention to the latest watches and warnings as they are issued tonight by our local National Weather Service Office. Report all severe weather to local law enforcement and ask them to pass it on to the National Weather Service.
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Now is the time to review your tornado safety plans and severe weather safety plans.
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I have a lot more information on the Beau Dodson Facebook page - you can ask me questions there and I will be doing three hour now-cast threads. CLICK HERE to view that page - hit LIKE at the top of the page
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...

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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here

If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in

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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information

Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium

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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Another system takes aim at our region towards the middle of the week with heavy rain possible. The concentration for this update is on the severe weather event for Sunday night.

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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