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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 47 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies. Colder.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper teens to lower 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northeast at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday: Increasing clouds through the day with a chance for some showers late in the day (more likely Friday night). Warmer.
Highs: around 50 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: East winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns.
No
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No snow is in our short range forecast...
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I will keep an eye on Saturday morning as the cold air moves in behind our weak storm system - perhaps a small chance of the rain ending as a mix or light snow...
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I will keep an eye on Saturday morning as the cold air moves in behind our weak storm system - perhaps a small chance of the rain ending as a mix or light snow...
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No major changes in this forecast update
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Ahhhh - a bit of calm weather to enjoy - for at least another 24 hours. Yesterday was anything but calm in the region as a line of strong thunderstorms passed through.
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The storms produced a number of tornadoes in Kentucky - actually the largest January outbreak that the NWS Office in Louisville, KY has ever recorded. They are still doing storm surveys. Here is a link to more information on the outbreak.
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Here is what the storm reports map looked like - they have added a few tornadoes since this map was created.
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The image below is from Mike Howard - click image for real view size
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The above image is from Keith McBride - also from the NWS Louisville web-site
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Appears our next system of concern will arrive on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This is a weak disturbance and will bring another chance for rain into our region.
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A dry cold front will move through the region on Thursday - this will bring a brief round of colder air. Then ahead of our next system (mentioned above) we will see a rebound in temperatures. A bit of a roller-coaster pattern for temperatures.
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Here is what the NAM Model is showing for the temperature ride the next couple of days - see the push of colder air from the north that makes a brief appearance ahead of our next disturbance.
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Images are from www.wright-weather.com (click images for the real size view)
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Remember what I have said before in the blog updates - AHEAD of an area of low pressure we see a push of warmer air into our region - then BEHIND the storm system we typically see the colder air filter in from the north.
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These maps show you the dry cold front on Thursday and Thursday night and then the push of warmer air on Friday (the last images are zoomed out on a national level)
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Thursday afternoon temperatures (around 3 pm)
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Friday morning temperatures (around 3 am)
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Friday afternoon temperatures (see the nudge of warmer air)
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Zoomed out national images
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First image is Friday morning around 3 am and the second image is Saturday morning around 3 am
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Let's check in on our friends to the north - in Alaska. THIS is where the cold air has been locked - amazingly cold temperatures. BRRRRR
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CLICK image for real size view
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SPEAKING of Alaska - check out this EXTREME snow video from Valdez - incredible is all I can say!
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While we are checking out temperatures - let's go ahead and look at the Wednesday morning temperature maps for the lower 48, as well - quite a bit of cold air (especially compared to recent weeks). These images are off of GREarth from Mike Gibson (Gibson Ridge Products)
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Again click images for the real size view
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The cold air has made it into the Pacific Northwest - if you have been watching the news you will have seen a few storms about the big snowstorm in Washington State! The image below is from the Wunderground web-site. Beautiful!
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Now back to the next precipitation maker for our local region (we will not have to worry about tornadoes or heavy snow)...
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Rainfall amounts with the Friday night and Saturday system should be fairly light - mostly less than 0.50" - heavier as you go east into Kentucky. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder on Friday night!
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Can't 100% rule out a light mix as colder air arrives behind the low pressure area on Saturday morning. Right now I don't believe this will be of any significance.
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Another chance of rain arrives around Monday or Tuesday of next week. Some data had suggested a much larger/deeper area of low pressure - however, my model of choice - the EC - is showing a more progressive storm. We will go with that for now and keep the risk for stronger storms to our south.
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We are entering a more active flow over the next few weeks. We should have several chances of showers and precipitation between now and the first week of February. Still looks as if temperatures will remain above normal.
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Check out these maps - from January 1st through the 17th. Departure from normal for temperatures - the first map. Most of the nation has experienced above normal temperatures during the month of January - just incredible. Little snow cover over the nation, as well.
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Click images for real size view
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Then we take a look at precipitation - mostly below normal over the nation. Check out Texas - they have finally picked up some much needed rainfall. Again this is the PERCENT of normal rainfall.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Ahhhh - a bit of calm weather to enjoy - for at least another 24 hours. Yesterday was anything but calm in the region as a line of strong thunderstorms passed through.
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The storms produced a number of tornadoes in Kentucky - actually the largest January outbreak that the NWS Office in Louisville, KY has ever recorded. They are still doing storm surveys. Here is a link to more information on the outbreak.
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Here is what the storm reports map looked like - they have added a few tornadoes since this map was created.
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The image below is from Mike Howard - click image for real view size
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Appears our next system of concern will arrive on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. This is a weak disturbance and will bring another chance for rain into our region.
.
A dry cold front will move through the region on Thursday - this will bring a brief round of colder air. Then ahead of our next system (mentioned above) we will see a rebound in temperatures. A bit of a roller-coaster pattern for temperatures.
.
Here is what the NAM Model is showing for the temperature ride the next couple of days - see the push of colder air from the north that makes a brief appearance ahead of our next disturbance.
.
Images are from www.wright-weather.com (click images for the real size view)
.
Remember what I have said before in the blog updates - AHEAD of an area of low pressure we see a push of warmer air into our region - then BEHIND the storm system we typically see the colder air filter in from the north.
.
These maps show you the dry cold front on Thursday and Thursday night and then the push of warmer air on Friday (the last images are zoomed out on a national level)
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Thursday afternoon temperatures (around 3 pm)
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Friday morning temperatures (around 3 am)
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Friday afternoon temperatures (see the nudge of warmer air)
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Zoomed out national images
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First image is Friday morning around 3 am and the second image is Saturday morning around 3 am
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Let's check in on our friends to the north - in Alaska. THIS is where the cold air has been locked - amazingly cold temperatures. BRRRRR
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CLICK image for real size view
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SPEAKING of Alaska - check out this EXTREME snow video from Valdez - incredible is all I can say!
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While we are checking out temperatures - let's go ahead and look at the Wednesday morning temperature maps for the lower 48, as well - quite a bit of cold air (especially compared to recent weeks). These images are off of GREarth from Mike Gibson (Gibson Ridge Products)
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Again click images for the real size view
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The cold air has made it into the Pacific Northwest - if you have been watching the news you will have seen a few storms about the big snowstorm in Washington State! The image below is from the Wunderground web-site. Beautiful!
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Now back to the next precipitation maker for our local region (we will not have to worry about tornadoes or heavy snow)...
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Rainfall amounts with the Friday night and Saturday system should be fairly light - mostly less than 0.50" - heavier as you go east into Kentucky. There could even be a few rumbles of thunder on Friday night!
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Can't 100% rule out a light mix as colder air arrives behind the low pressure area on Saturday morning. Right now I don't believe this will be of any significance.
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Another chance of rain arrives around Monday or Tuesday of next week. Some data had suggested a much larger/deeper area of low pressure - however, my model of choice - the EC - is showing a more progressive storm. We will go with that for now and keep the risk for stronger storms to our south.
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We are entering a more active flow over the next few weeks. We should have several chances of showers and precipitation between now and the first week of February. Still looks as if temperatures will remain above normal.
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Check out these maps - from January 1st through the 17th. Departure from normal for temperatures - the first map. Most of the nation has experienced above normal temperatures during the month of January - just incredible. Little snow cover over the nation, as well.
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Click images for real size view
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Then we take a look at precipitation - mostly below normal over the nation. Check out Texas - they have finally picked up some much needed rainfall. Again this is the PERCENT of normal rainfall.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - less than 5%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday the 24th - 0%
.1. No major chances in the long range - a more active pattern is developing. That will mean more frequent rounds of precipitation. Mostly rain - however, I will monitor for any changes - there will be frequent changes in temperatures - from above normal to below normal (broken record - we have been in this pattern for awhile).
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Here are the latest six to ten day and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks. Does this look familiar or what? Can we ever shake this mild winter? I find it hard to believe that this can continue on through February - guess we will see how it goes. There continue to be some hints that the pattern will flip. The winter of discontent for snow lovers will continue for now - but we will keep an eye on February to see if we FINALLY see the flip towards colder air. (snow lovers - keep hope alive)
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Here are the latest six to ten day and eight to fourteen day temperature outlooks. Does this look familiar or what? Can we ever shake this mild winter? I find it hard to believe that this can continue on through February - guess we will see how it goes. There continue to be some hints that the pattern will flip. The winter of discontent for snow lovers will continue for now - but we will keep an eye on February to see if we FINALLY see the flip towards colder air. (snow lovers - keep hope alive)
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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