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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. Cold. Flurries and light snow over southwest Indiana.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper teens | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0."
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: Mix of sun and clouds. Not as cold. A chance for some snow showers during the afternoon hours. See probabilities below.
Highs: around 41 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for some snow showers early.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: West at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Mix of sun and clouds. Winds picking up a bit
Highs: around 48 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 45 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns. Light snow over southwest Indiana. Will monitor for snow chances on Saturday afternoon.
No - but watch for slick spots.
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Wild card in this forecast will be snow chances on Saturday afternoon and evening
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Snow showers possible on Saturday afternoon/evening. This will mainly be over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and Kentucky. Also light snow this evening over southwest Indiana.
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Probability of snowflakes in the air on Saturday = 60%
Probability of a dusting of snow (1" or less of snow on Saturday) = 30%
Probability of 1"-2" of snow on Saturday = 10%
Probability of 2"-4" of snow on Saturday = less than 1% .
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Updated snow chances
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow possible over southwest Indiana.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow possible over southwest Indiana.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow showers possible during the afternoon.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. Some snow showers possible early
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Brrrr - did everyone wake up chilly this morning? Widespread teens were reported over our region. A bit of a shock compared to recent weeks. It is still winter!
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Snow showers continued on Friday morning over the area. This caused an additional dusting in a few counties. The snow combined with the cold and wind made for a raw day in most of our counties. I guess when you have had highs in the 50s and 60s you get a little spoiled.
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Some light snow or snow showers will continue this evening over southwest Indiana. Dusting will be possible.
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The weekend will bring a chance for some snow showers on Saturday afternoon and evening - especially over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky - temperatures will start to moderate a bit and by Sunday temperatures will be closer to near normal and even above normal in some counties.
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The next storm system will arrive by Monday and Tuesday. This will bring RAIN to the region. The rain will be accompanied by above normal temperatures.
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Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday night. Severe weather is not anticipated. Rainfall totals will be in the 0.25-0.50" range with pockets of heavier amounts likely.
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Tuesday will bring falling temperatures and windy conditions through the day.
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See the extended forecast for next week into next weekend.
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Here is the weather forecast graphic from the NWS for Saturday/Sunday
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Here is the hour by hour graphic for Paducah< Kentucky - for the next 48 hours
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Saturday is on the left - then Sunday on the right (graph reads from left to right)
Top graphic shows you the temps in red - wind chills in blue - and dew point in green
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Brrrr - did everyone wake up chilly this morning? Widespread teens were reported over our region. A bit of a shock compared to recent weeks. It is still winter!
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Snow showers continued on Friday morning over the area. This caused an additional dusting in a few counties. The snow combined with the cold and wind made for a raw day in most of our counties. I guess when you have had highs in the 50s and 60s you get a little spoiled.
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Some light snow or snow showers will continue this evening over southwest Indiana. Dusting will be possible.
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The weekend will bring a chance for some snow showers on Saturday afternoon and evening - especially over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western Kentucky - temperatures will start to moderate a bit and by Sunday temperatures will be closer to near normal and even above normal in some counties.
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The next storm system will arrive by Monday and Tuesday. This will bring RAIN to the region. The rain will be accompanied by above normal temperatures.
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Thunderstorms will be possible on Monday night. Severe weather is not anticipated. Rainfall totals will be in the 0.25-0.50" range with pockets of heavier amounts likely.
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Tuesday will bring falling temperatures and windy conditions through the day.
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See the extended forecast for next week into next weekend.
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Here is the weather forecast graphic from the NWS for Saturday/Sunday
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Here is the hour by hour graphic for Paducah< Kentucky - for the next 48 hours
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Saturday is on the left - then Sunday on the right (graph reads from left to right)
Top graphic shows you the temps in red - wind chills in blue - and dew point in green
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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Rain is not forecast for our local counties - no graphic today.
Rain is not forecast for our local counties - no graphic today.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow showers or light snow will be possible this evening over southwest Indiana (Friday evening)
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I will be watching for some snow showers on Saturday afternoon and evening...
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Snow showers or light snow will be possible this evening over southwest Indiana (Friday evening)
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I will be watching for some snow showers on Saturday afternoon and evening...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures, as well. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant/wild swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures, as well. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant/wild swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Sunday the 15th - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Sunday the 15th - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%.
Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday 20th - 0%
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1. I can't find any significant snowstorms to track in the extended forecast. There will be a disturbance on Saturday moving in from the northwest. Some snow showers will be possible with this system. Some of the data shows more moisture than other data - will just have to monitor radar trends on Saturday afternoon.
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Our next system for Monday/Tuesday of next week will bring rain. Can't rule out the rain ending as some snow flakes. This is not expected to be a big deal.
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Most of the rain will fall on Monday night and then temperatures will fall through the day on Tuesday with gusty westerly winds.
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Beyond that storm - I will be monitoring some more precipitation chances towards the end of next week into next weekend. Temperatures on Wednesday into Friday of next week should be fairly cold. Although the nudge of warmer air to our south will need to be monitored. We will be close to the warm/cold boundary.
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On/off precipitation chances may continue from next weekend into the early part of the following week. A bit of an unsettled pattern. Depending on the storm track we may need to think about thunderstorms during that time period, as well. A bit early to be confident in the details. Will monitor and update accordingly.
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Looking at the next 2 weeks - appears we will continue the roller-coaster pattern with a number of above normal temperature days mixed in with the occasional blast of cold air.
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A betting man might bet on February and March being colder than normal. Surely this rubber band will bounce back the other way? I have seen it happen many times in the past. This means that snow lovers can at least keep the candles of hope lit for a bit longer. I don't think our snow threats our over.
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Our next system for Monday/Tuesday of next week will bring rain. Can't rule out the rain ending as some snow flakes. This is not expected to be a big deal.
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Most of the rain will fall on Monday night and then temperatures will fall through the day on Tuesday with gusty westerly winds.
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Beyond that storm - I will be monitoring some more precipitation chances towards the end of next week into next weekend. Temperatures on Wednesday into Friday of next week should be fairly cold. Although the nudge of warmer air to our south will need to be monitored. We will be close to the warm/cold boundary.
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On/off precipitation chances may continue from next weekend into the early part of the following week. A bit of an unsettled pattern. Depending on the storm track we may need to think about thunderstorms during that time period, as well. A bit early to be confident in the details. Will monitor and update accordingly.
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Looking at the next 2 weeks - appears we will continue the roller-coaster pattern with a number of above normal temperature days mixed in with the occasional blast of cold air.
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A betting man might bet on February and March being colder than normal. Surely this rubber band will bounce back the other way? I have seen it happen many times in the past. This means that snow lovers can at least keep the candles of hope lit for a bit longer. I don't think our snow threats our over.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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