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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Cloudy with snow showers. Windy and cold - wind chill values into the single digits..
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 16-22 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: West winds at 10-20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 70% early | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less melted precipitation - a dusting to an inch or so of snow in some counties (esp where the bands form).
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: A mix of sun and clouds. Some snow showers likely.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 29-34 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wind: West winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. Cold.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 17-21 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 25 degrees.
Wind: West winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: Some clouds - still chilly.
Highs: around 38-44 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Bitterly cold wind chills Thursday night into Friday morning. Some snow showers this evening (Thursday evening) - light accumulations of a dusting to an inch possible in the heaviest snow bands. This could cause some slick spots as temperatures have fallen into the 20s.
Watch for some slick spots.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Snow showers likely on Thursday evening...
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Probability of snowflakes in the air on Thursday evening = 100%
Probability of a dusting of snow (1" or less of snow on Thursday evening) = 80%
Probability of 1"-2" of snow on Thursday evening = 20%
Probability of 2"-4" of snow on Thursday evening = 10% .
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No major changes in this forecast.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow showers
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow showers
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Brrrr - the cold air has arrived! Temperatures this morning at 3-7 am were in the middle and upper 30s. Temperatures had fallen well into the 20s after 7 am - this was accompanied by winds of 20-30+ mph and low wind chill values.
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Snow developed overnight and moved through the area during the early morning hours on Thursday. Most areas picked up a dusting to an inch of snow - the dusting of snow had melted in some counties by late morning.
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Some were disappointed by the dusting of snow - after a season without any snow I guess a dusting is better than nothing! I am a snow fan and would like to see a decent snowstorm before the season is over - I think we still have plenty of time for a winter storm. Don't give up hope just yet - snow lovers.
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I did manage to scrape together a little bit of snow here at the Weather Observatory :)
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Snow was redeveloping on radar as of 2 PM - this snow will continue to move over the region late this afternoon into the evening hours. Another dusting to even an inch or so of snow will be possible in the heaviest snow bands - snow showers. This could cause some slick spots.
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Check out the wind chill maps for tonight and Friday - brrr will be the word on the street. Bundle up the kids - it will be cold.
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Temperatures are Friday will be SEVERAL degrees below normal - check out this temperature departure map for Friday. This is how many degrees ABOVE or BELOW normal high temperatures are forecast to be. WELL below normal for our region! Cold.
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And while we are at it - let's take a look at the national snow depth map - SAD for snow lovers. MUCH of the nation is in a snow drought. Although today's snow will help in some areas. We will check back on that map in the coming days and watch the change.
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This map shows you how much snow is on the ground - OR lack of snow on the ground I should say!
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Temperatures will already begin to moderate by this weekend - highs will reach into the 40s (much closer to normal). By early next week we may even see some readings above 50 degrees! This will be ahead of our next storm system. See the extended discussion for more information on the next storm.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Brrrr - the cold air has arrived! Temperatures this morning at 3-7 am were in the middle and upper 30s. Temperatures had fallen well into the 20s after 7 am - this was accompanied by winds of 20-30+ mph and low wind chill values.
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Snow developed overnight and moved through the area during the early morning hours on Thursday. Most areas picked up a dusting to an inch of snow - the dusting of snow had melted in some counties by late morning.
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Some were disappointed by the dusting of snow - after a season without any snow I guess a dusting is better than nothing! I am a snow fan and would like to see a decent snowstorm before the season is over - I think we still have plenty of time for a winter storm. Don't give up hope just yet - snow lovers.
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I did manage to scrape together a little bit of snow here at the Weather Observatory :)
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Snow was redeveloping on radar as of 2 PM - this snow will continue to move over the region late this afternoon into the evening hours. Another dusting to even an inch or so of snow will be possible in the heaviest snow bands - snow showers. This could cause some slick spots.
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Check out the wind chill maps for tonight and Friday - brrr will be the word on the street. Bundle up the kids - it will be cold.
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Temperatures are Friday will be SEVERAL degrees below normal - check out this temperature departure map for Friday. This is how many degrees ABOVE or BELOW normal high temperatures are forecast to be. WELL below normal for our region! Cold.
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And while we are at it - let's take a look at the national snow depth map - SAD for snow lovers. MUCH of the nation is in a snow drought. Although today's snow will help in some areas. We will check back on that map in the coming days and watch the change.
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This map shows you how much snow is on the ground - OR lack of snow on the ground I should say!
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Temperatures will already begin to moderate by this weekend - highs will reach into the 40s (much closer to normal). By early next week we may even see some readings above 50 degrees! This will be ahead of our next storm system. See the extended discussion for more information on the next storm.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow showers will continue into the evening hours on Thursday - light accumulations will be possible. Some snow showers possible on Friday, as well.
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Snow showers will continue into the evening hours on Thursday - light accumulations will be possible. Some snow showers possible on Friday, as well.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures, as well. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant/wild swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures, as well. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant/wild swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will fall. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page).
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Saturday = 0%
Sunday = 0%
Monday = 0%
Tuesday = less than 5%- will be monitoring the potential for a system in or near our region - right now looks more like rain than snow. Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
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Saturday = 0%
Sunday = 0%
Monday = 0%
Tuesday = less than 5%- will be monitoring the potential for a system in or near our region - right now looks more like rain than snow. Wednesday - 0%
Thursday - 0%
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1. Moderating temperatures will be story for the weekend into early next week. We will find ourselves above normal again by Sunday or Monday and that will last into Tuesday and Wednesday.
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A storm system arrives on Monday afternoon/Monday night and Tuesday with another widespread rain event - rain does not look particularly heavy. Perhaps another widespread 0.25"-0.50" with pockets of heavier rain. Thunderstorms can't be ruled out.
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Here is what the Monday night and Tuesday storm looks like on the GFS - image from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real view size
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Following that we will continue to see wild swings in temperatures from well below normal to well above normal. The roller-coaster pattern will continue into the end of the month. Some of the data is showing a few winter weather threats - but I won't get overly excited about those just yet. It has been hard to bring wintry precipitation into our region. But - snow lovers should not give up hope. I think we will still see some winter storm chances in the coming weeks.
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Here are the official NOAA 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks. These maps show you what the pattern FAVORS in the coming weeks. You can see it mostly favors ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation in our region.
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See the date stamps at the top of each image
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And the 8-14 day outlooks below
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And for fun let's take a look at the GFS in fantasy land - WAY out there - January 17th. This is showing a snow event for our region - this is a CLIPPER from the northwest - these typically can produce a dusting to a few inches of snow - depending on the track. We will watch it and see - again this is WAY out there for the model (they do poorly past a few days). But - something to watch.
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A storm system arrives on Monday afternoon/Monday night and Tuesday with another widespread rain event - rain does not look particularly heavy. Perhaps another widespread 0.25"-0.50" with pockets of heavier rain. Thunderstorms can't be ruled out.
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Here is what the Monday night and Tuesday storm looks like on the GFS - image from www.wright-weather.com - click image for real view size
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Following that we will continue to see wild swings in temperatures from well below normal to well above normal. The roller-coaster pattern will continue into the end of the month. Some of the data is showing a few winter weather threats - but I won't get overly excited about those just yet. It has been hard to bring wintry precipitation into our region. But - snow lovers should not give up hope. I think we will still see some winter storm chances in the coming weeks.
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Here are the official NOAA 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks. These maps show you what the pattern FAVORS in the coming weeks. You can see it mostly favors ABOVE normal temperatures and ABOVE normal precipitation in our region.
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See the date stamps at the top of each image
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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