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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Rain with some thunderstorms. Fog developing by morning. Mild for January. Track the rain on our radars - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to lower to middle 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - Near 100% | Rainfall totals: widespread 0.25" to 0.50" - pockets of 0.50-1.00"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Morning dense fog. Some showers remaining - otherwise mostly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 53-57 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.20"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy skies. Colder. A chance for snow after midnight.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: West to northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: West to northwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: Colder and windier - snow showers or snow squalls likely. Temperatures steady or slowly falling through the day. Cold wind chill values down into the teens and 20s
Highs: around 39 degrees and then falling | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-20 mph - gusting to near 35-40 mph at times.
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less of melted precipitation - chance for a dusting or so of snow in some counties (dusting means 1" or less)
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Temperatures on Thursday NIGHT will be in the teens.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Temperatures on Thursday NIGHT will be in the teens.
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Chance of some snow squalls on Thursday - windy/colder
Dramatically colder on Thursday and Friday - some snow squalls possible Thursday.
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The wild card in this forecast will be snow showers on Thursday as a decent disturbance moves through the northwest flow - better chances of snow the further you go north and east. But we will all have a chance for some snow showers or snow squalls (thunder?). Would not be surprised to see a dusting or so in some of our counties.
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Snow showers or snow squalls will be possible on Thursday...
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Probability of snowflakes in the air on Thursday = 80%
Probability of a dusting of snow (less than 1" of snow on Thursday) = 60%
Probability of 1"-2" of snow on Thursday = 30%
Probability of 2"-4" of snow on Thursday = less than 10% .
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Added fog and updated snowfall potential
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Rumble of thunder will be possible
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Rumble of thunder will be possible
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Snow showers or snow squalls will be possible.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Here comes some change - even if it is only for a few days!
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An area of low pressure will push into the region tonight and Wednesday morning - with this area of low pressure will come rain and even a few rumbles of thunder! January? Sure is!
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Rainfall totals will be in the 0.25-0.50" range with pockets of heavier totals. Track the rain as it moves into and through the region on our local radars - click here.
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Much colder air will arrive for a few days - starting on Thursday and this will continue into the weekend. Near normal to below normal temperatures will be the rule on Thursday and Friday. Friday morning lows will likely be in the TEENS. Bundle up.
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The cold air will also bring an upper level disturbance on Thursday - this will trigger light snow and/or snow squalls in and near the region. Snow is likely to at least fly in the air - but significant accumulations are not in the forecast. Can't rule out a dusting or so in some counties - especially if a snow squall/band develops (dusting means 1" or less). See the probabilities above - under the graphic.
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The system on Thursday is a potent one and is likely under-forecasted by the computer models. It may move a bit further south and west than currently progged and will certainly be more intense than recent model runs have shown over the last few days. I have seen similar systems in the past produce brief heavy snow squalls - thunder - gusty winds - and a quick burst of accumulating snow. Thursdays forecast will need to be monitored for tweaks or changes. If changes were to occur it would probably be to increase the chances for a dusting or so of snow (again a dusting is 1" or less of snow). Will monitor.
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Let's take a look at the future-cast radar from the WRF model - these images are from my favorite source for model data - www.wright-weather.com
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Click images for real size view - you can see the rain moving over the region later tonight (Tuesday night - Wednesday morning - first image is 3 am Wednesday) - then the last two images are the snow showers and squalls as another disturbance moves through on Thursday.
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Here is that ball of energy on Thursday - not too shabby.
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Couple of more maps for you - showing the impressive blast of cold air moving into the region and the disturbance on Thursday.
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Click images for real view size - this first image shows you the relative humidity values along with lift on Thursday - behind and along the front. Decent signal there for some precipitation.
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This next map shows you WINDS on Thursday - WINDY with cold air = brrrr conditions.
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And finally the 850 mb map - showing the BLAST of cold air on Thursday moving in from the northwest. The pink and purple colors are cold air.
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OKAY one more map :) - the wind chill readings for Thursday afternoon into Friday - BRRRR - bundle the kids up!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Here comes some change - even if it is only for a few days!
.
An area of low pressure will push into the region tonight and Wednesday morning - with this area of low pressure will come rain and even a few rumbles of thunder! January? Sure is!
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Rainfall totals will be in the 0.25-0.50" range with pockets of heavier totals. Track the rain as it moves into and through the region on our local radars - click here.
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Much colder air will arrive for a few days - starting on Thursday and this will continue into the weekend. Near normal to below normal temperatures will be the rule on Thursday and Friday. Friday morning lows will likely be in the TEENS. Bundle up.
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The cold air will also bring an upper level disturbance on Thursday - this will trigger light snow and/or snow squalls in and near the region. Snow is likely to at least fly in the air - but significant accumulations are not in the forecast. Can't rule out a dusting or so in some counties - especially if a snow squall/band develops (dusting means 1" or less). See the probabilities above - under the graphic.
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The system on Thursday is a potent one and is likely under-forecasted by the computer models. It may move a bit further south and west than currently progged and will certainly be more intense than recent model runs have shown over the last few days. I have seen similar systems in the past produce brief heavy snow squalls - thunder - gusty winds - and a quick burst of accumulating snow. Thursdays forecast will need to be monitored for tweaks or changes. If changes were to occur it would probably be to increase the chances for a dusting or so of snow (again a dusting is 1" or less of snow). Will monitor.
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Let's take a look at the future-cast radar from the WRF model - these images are from my favorite source for model data - www.wright-weather.com
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Click images for real size view - you can see the rain moving over the region later tonight (Tuesday night - Wednesday morning - first image is 3 am Wednesday) - then the last two images are the snow showers and squalls as another disturbance moves through on Thursday.
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Here is that ball of energy on Thursday - not too shabby.
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Couple of more maps for you - showing the impressive blast of cold air moving into the region and the disturbance on Thursday.
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Click images for real view size - this first image shows you the relative humidity values along with lift on Thursday - behind and along the front. Decent signal there for some precipitation.
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This next map shows you WINDS on Thursday - WINDY with cold air = brrrr conditions.
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And finally the 850 mb map - showing the BLAST of cold air on Thursday moving in from the northwest. The pink and purple colors are cold air.
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OKAY one more map :) - the wind chill readings for Thursday afternoon into Friday - BRRRR - bundle the kids up!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Snow showers or snow squalls will be possible on Thursday as a disturbance moves through the area. Better chance of seeing snow on the ground as you push further north into central Illinois and Indiana. Quite a bit of lift with the Thursday front - but moisture will be limited. Will monitor for any changes - wouldn't be surprised if someone picks up a dusting or so on Thursday - especially if a band of snow squalls develops.
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Snow showers or snow squalls will be possible on Thursday as a disturbance moves through the area. Better chance of seeing snow on the ground as you push further north into central Illinois and Indiana. Quite a bit of lift with the Thursday front - but moisture will be limited. Will monitor for any changes - wouldn't be surprised if someone picks up a dusting or so on Thursday - especially if a band of snow squalls develops.
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern - lending itself to possible more sustained cold from time to time.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Potential for the pattern to finally produce more prolonged cold spells vs transient. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Unlike the first part of January when cold shots were short lived (1 or 2 days) - the end of January has a better chance of producing cold that last a few days longer - although they may still be fairly transient. We just can not seem to lock in the cold this year.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern - lending itself to possible more sustained cold from time to time.
Confidence in my forecast: LOW
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Tuesday = 0%
Wednesday = 0%
Thursday = 20% - a few spots could pick up heavier snow squalls - esp as you go north in the area.
Friday = 0%
Saturday = 0%
Sunday = 0%
Monday = 0%
Tuesday = less than 5%- will be monitoring the potential for a system in or near our region - right now looks more like rain than snow.
Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Tuesday = 0%
Wednesday = 0%
Thursday = 20% - a few spots could pick up heavier snow squalls - esp as you go north in the area.
Friday = 0%
Saturday = 0%
Sunday = 0%
Monday = 0%
Tuesday = less than 5%- will be monitoring the potential for a system in or near our region - right now looks more like rain than snow.
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1. A brief blast of cold air will move into the region on Thursday and last into the weekend. Highs on both Thursday and Friday will likely not get out of the 30s. Brrr - bundle up.
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Temperatures will already begin to moderate on Saturday and Sunday. This will set the stage for even warmer temperatures on Monday.
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The next storm system appears on Monday night or Tuesday with what will probably be rain. Rain could end as light snow. Still a number of days away.
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No big changes in the overall pattern for our region - as I have been saying in recent posts, we will see more intrusions of cold air the last half of January vs the first half. The cold spells may last a few days longer compared to what has been happening over the last month.
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The NAO will likely push towards a more neutral look - possibly even negative. I am not overly excited by this, however, as stated over the last few days - cold air has been difficult to lock in over our region so far this winter. Will continue to monitor for any major changes.
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A betting man would bet on the cold intrusions become more numerous over the next 3-4 weeks - BUT these will be mingled with above to well above normal temperatures, as well. There could be a bigger push of colder air as we move towards the end of the month into the first part of February. Whether February can lock in a cold pattern is far from certain. The track record this winter has yet to produce prolonged periods of cold weather.
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Bottom line...
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Several blasts of cold air over the coming weeks mingled with above normal temperatures.
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Let's take a look at the Palmer Drought Index - it has been awhile since I posted this graphic. Still quite wet over our region - and drought continues to our southwest. The last few weeks have been very dry across the nation.
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Temperatures will already begin to moderate on Saturday and Sunday. This will set the stage for even warmer temperatures on Monday.
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The next storm system appears on Monday night or Tuesday with what will probably be rain. Rain could end as light snow. Still a number of days away.
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No big changes in the overall pattern for our region - as I have been saying in recent posts, we will see more intrusions of cold air the last half of January vs the first half. The cold spells may last a few days longer compared to what has been happening over the last month.
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The NAO will likely push towards a more neutral look - possibly even negative. I am not overly excited by this, however, as stated over the last few days - cold air has been difficult to lock in over our region so far this winter. Will continue to monitor for any major changes.
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A betting man would bet on the cold intrusions become more numerous over the next 3-4 weeks - BUT these will be mingled with above to well above normal temperatures, as well. There could be a bigger push of colder air as we move towards the end of the month into the first part of February. Whether February can lock in a cold pattern is far from certain. The track record this winter has yet to produce prolonged periods of cold weather.
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Bottom line...
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Several blasts of cold air over the coming weeks mingled with above normal temperatures.
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Let's take a look at the Palmer Drought Index - it has been awhile since I posted this graphic. Still quite wet over our region - and drought continues to our southwest. The last few weeks have been very dry across the nation.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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