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For more frequent updates check out the weather Facebook page - click here and hit like at the top of the page.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Sunday night: Clouds with a chance for showers.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" or less
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: A mix of sun and clouds.
Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 53-57 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures.
Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: Partly cloudy skies.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: More clouds than sun - slight chance for a shower. Rain chances increase Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.
Highs: around 58 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Easterly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10" - but totals will go up on Tuesday night
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 24 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE: Where is winter? That is what many people are saying. We have had a few days of cold weather and then we quickly return to mild conditions. Seems like this pattern has repeated for weeks on end. It is unusual and it is noteworthy. This has not been a typical winter for our region - or many other regions across the United States.
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The extreme lack of snow cover across the United States is a telling sign of just how mild this winter has been. Some of the maps below prove what we already know. This has not been a cold winter but rather a mild one - thus far.
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Here is the amazing lack of snow cover map - you can view these maps yourself by clicking on our web-site
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However, with that said - winters end has not yet arrived. The pattern is making attempts at turning towards more cold vs warm. Will the cold finally win out in the coming weeks? We also have several precipitation events to monitor - along with the colder air between now and the end of the month.
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There is going to be a fairly robust battle between the cold and the warm air masses over the coming weeks - that typically is a recipe for increased precipitation chances and perhaps some bigger/deeper areas of low pressure. Although winter has yet to truly rear its ugly head - I wouldn't toss in the towel JUST YET.
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BUT - I am getting ahead of myself :) - first let's take a look at the short range synopsis
We will be tracking a storm system over the coming days that will usher in a few changes to our local regions weather. Rain will be on the increase - especially late on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A widespread 0.25-0.50" of rain is likely to fall - with pockets of heavier rain possible.
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The bulk of the rain will likely fall after nightfall on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Again rainfall totals will be on the order of 0.25-0.50" with pockets of heavier rain likely in some counties - southern counties may have the best potential for totals above 0.50"
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Here is the future-cast radar from www.wright-weather.com - the first image is for Tuesday night around 9 pm - 12 am and then the second image is for Wednesday morning. You get the general idea on the placement of precipitation (in green and yellow) - click images for real size view
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Colder air will then return on Wednesday into the remainder of the work week. Near normal to below normal temperatures will be the rule Wednesday into Saturday.
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Let's take a look at the high temperature DEPARTURE maps for Monday into Tuesday and then compare it to Thursday - these maps tell you how much above or below normal temperatures will be - obviously WARMTH covers much of the nation on Monday and Tuesday - but then you can see the arrival of the colder air as we push further into the work week.
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And let's take a look at actual temperatures and compare ahead of the storm system on Tuesday night and Wednesday - first image and then Friday morning low temperatures (second image) - quite the contrast! Images are from www.wright-weather.com
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Click images for real size view - first image is Tuesday evening (temperature scale is at the bottom of each image)
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Then we compare that to Friday morning - COLD air makes a sweep into the region and fairly far south
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Can't 100% rule out a snow flurry as the colder air moves in - and there are even some small disturbances moving through the flow between Thursday and Sunday that could also introduce some light snow chances from time to time. The signals aren't strong - so for now we will just monitor and update accordingly as the picture becomes a bit more clear.
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Here is the 500mb vort map - it is showing another disturbance moving down from the north on Thursday and Friday - will monitor that one for some light snow (iffy at best right now) - and a decent vort max over California that we will monitor, as well. Click image for real size view.
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Here are a few maps showing you the departures from normal temperatures over the last month or so. Let's check out both December and January (2011 and beginning of 2012)
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This first map below shows you the departure from normal temperatures in December. MUCH of the nation found itself above normal. Many areas were WELL above normal in the temperature department.
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Not very winter like! The yellow - orange - red - all of those areas are above normal temperatures for last month.
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HEADLINE: Where is winter? That is what many people are saying. We have had a few days of cold weather and then we quickly return to mild conditions. Seems like this pattern has repeated for weeks on end. It is unusual and it is noteworthy. This has not been a typical winter for our region - or many other regions across the United States.
.
The extreme lack of snow cover across the United States is a telling sign of just how mild this winter has been. Some of the maps below prove what we already know. This has not been a cold winter but rather a mild one - thus far.
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Here is the amazing lack of snow cover map - you can view these maps yourself by clicking on our web-site
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.
However, with that said - winters end has not yet arrived. The pattern is making attempts at turning towards more cold vs warm. Will the cold finally win out in the coming weeks? We also have several precipitation events to monitor - along with the colder air between now and the end of the month.
.
There is going to be a fairly robust battle between the cold and the warm air masses over the coming weeks - that typically is a recipe for increased precipitation chances and perhaps some bigger/deeper areas of low pressure. Although winter has yet to truly rear its ugly head - I wouldn't toss in the towel JUST YET.
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BUT - I am getting ahead of myself :) - first let's take a look at the short range synopsis
We will be tracking a storm system over the coming days that will usher in a few changes to our local regions weather. Rain will be on the increase - especially late on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. A widespread 0.25-0.50" of rain is likely to fall - with pockets of heavier rain possible.
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The bulk of the rain will likely fall after nightfall on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Again rainfall totals will be on the order of 0.25-0.50" with pockets of heavier rain likely in some counties - southern counties may have the best potential for totals above 0.50"
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Here is the future-cast radar from www.wright-weather.com - the first image is for Tuesday night around 9 pm - 12 am and then the second image is for Wednesday morning. You get the general idea on the placement of precipitation (in green and yellow) - click images for real size view
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Colder air will then return on Wednesday into the remainder of the work week. Near normal to below normal temperatures will be the rule Wednesday into Saturday.
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Let's take a look at the high temperature DEPARTURE maps for Monday into Tuesday and then compare it to Thursday - these maps tell you how much above or below normal temperatures will be - obviously WARMTH covers much of the nation on Monday and Tuesday - but then you can see the arrival of the colder air as we push further into the work week.
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And let's take a look at actual temperatures and compare ahead of the storm system on Tuesday night and Wednesday - first image and then Friday morning low temperatures (second image) - quite the contrast! Images are from www.wright-weather.com
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Click images for real size view - first image is Tuesday evening (temperature scale is at the bottom of each image)
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Then we compare that to Friday morning - COLD air makes a sweep into the region and fairly far south
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Can't 100% rule out a snow flurry as the colder air moves in - and there are even some small disturbances moving through the flow between Thursday and Sunday that could also introduce some light snow chances from time to time. The signals aren't strong - so for now we will just monitor and update accordingly as the picture becomes a bit more clear.
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Here is the 500mb vort map - it is showing another disturbance moving down from the north on Thursday and Friday - will monitor that one for some light snow (iffy at best right now) - and a decent vort max over California that we will monitor, as well. Click image for real size view.
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Here are a few maps showing you the departures from normal temperatures over the last month or so. Let's check out both December and January (2011 and beginning of 2012)
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This first map below shows you the departure from normal temperatures in December. MUCH of the nation found itself above normal. Many areas were WELL above normal in the temperature department.
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Not very winter like! The yellow - orange - red - all of those areas are above normal temperatures for last month.
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This next map is showing you January 2012. More mild conditions for the first full week of the new year (but you knew that already). Although we are about to see some colder weather arrive later this week. Still - this map shows winter is absent across much of the nation - not normal and not typical.
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How about precipitation for January? Below normal - thus far. However, we will pick up some rain in the coming days as a southern storm system moves north and northeast across our region.
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The red areas are BELOW normal precipitation - for the first week of the new year. A rather dry start to 2012 - at least for January. Remember - December was wet (the second map below).
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The above map shows you the percent of normal precipitation - (December) - you can see we were 100 to 200 percent ABOVE normal in the rainfall department. - WELL above normal precipitation in our region. Some areas picked up 6-8 inches of rain. This was on top of Novembers extremely wet weather.
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A strange winter thus far - extremely wet for November and December - and well above normal temperatures for the most part. Many are left asking - will there be a winter at all!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 120 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast - although I can't rule out some flurries or light snow later in the week - will monitor and update accordingly as new data arrives...
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No significant snow in our forecast - although I can't rule out some flurries or light snow later in the week - will monitor and update accordingly as new data arrives...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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1. Where is winter? Many are asking that question after an unusually mild December and a mild start to January (see above discussion on that topic). Without a doubt it has been warmer than most forecasters ever expected - including me. The cold has been transient in nature. Meaning that when the cold does arrive it does not stick around very long. Part of this is because we have not had a strong negative NAO. That was the wild card in the entire winter forecast. In order for sustained cold weather to linger in our region we would need a negative NAO. That has not happened - and all winter I have said that is the wild card - the NWS has said that is the wild card - and many other local forecasters have said that is the wild card! And so it has been.
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So what is ahead of us? We still have six or seven solid weeks of winter left - meteorologists usually consider March the beginning of SPRING!
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There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the pattern unfolds during the next 2-4 weeks. Several signals for colder air to make greater inroads into the region. The potential for the NAO to finally go negative or more neutral - and a continued building of colder and colder air to our north.
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When I look for extreme patterns I typically look for large temperature contrasts from north to south across the nation - and as that contrasts narrows in width I start looking for more significant storm systems.
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Let me give you an example from this mornings run of the GFS model - one of many models that meteorologists use (it has not been the stellar model during the past few months - but for example sakes I will use it today)
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These maps are from my favorite source for model data - www.wright-weather.com
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Again this first map is showing you the TEMPERATURE forecast for next Wednesday/Thursday (18th and 19th) - see the sharp contrast from north to south - this particular run of the GFS is producing a significant storm system in the central United States
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Will that storm happen - as shown by the GFS? Probably not exactly as shown - models don't do well in the long range - but they do give us clues as to how a pattern is shaping up. Many of the models have been swinging wildly from one run to the next - typically most of the models are run 2-4 times a day. When that happens it tells me that we are likely moving into a more active pattern with the potential for some precipitation events.
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Zeroing in on one model run or the next won't give a forecaster all of the answers. Just clues.
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Bottom line - it appears starting this week that we are moving into a more active weather pattern with swings in temperatures from above to below normal. There will probably be several precipitation chances between now and the end of the month - and the potential for a couple of areas of low pressure to strengthen considerably over the central and eastern U.S.
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This would be in contrast to the pattern over the last couple of weeks which has brought fairly tame weather to our region.
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This winter has not been easy to forecast past the short range - so confidence in the extended forecast is fairly low.
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Time will tell how this winter will be judged.
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So what is ahead of us? We still have six or seven solid weeks of winter left - meteorologists usually consider March the beginning of SPRING!
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There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the pattern unfolds during the next 2-4 weeks. Several signals for colder air to make greater inroads into the region. The potential for the NAO to finally go negative or more neutral - and a continued building of colder and colder air to our north.
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When I look for extreme patterns I typically look for large temperature contrasts from north to south across the nation - and as that contrasts narrows in width I start looking for more significant storm systems.
.
Let me give you an example from this mornings run of the GFS model - one of many models that meteorologists use (it has not been the stellar model during the past few months - but for example sakes I will use it today)
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These maps are from my favorite source for model data - www.wright-weather.com
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Again this first map is showing you the TEMPERATURE forecast for next Wednesday/Thursday (18th and 19th) - see the sharp contrast from north to south - this particular run of the GFS is producing a significant storm system in the central United States
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Will that storm happen - as shown by the GFS? Probably not exactly as shown - models don't do well in the long range - but they do give us clues as to how a pattern is shaping up. Many of the models have been swinging wildly from one run to the next - typically most of the models are run 2-4 times a day. When that happens it tells me that we are likely moving into a more active pattern with the potential for some precipitation events.
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Zeroing in on one model run or the next won't give a forecaster all of the answers. Just clues.
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Bottom line - it appears starting this week that we are moving into a more active weather pattern with swings in temperatures from above to below normal. There will probably be several precipitation chances between now and the end of the month - and the potential for a couple of areas of low pressure to strengthen considerably over the central and eastern U.S.
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This would be in contrast to the pattern over the last couple of weeks which has brought fairly tame weather to our region.
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This winter has not been easy to forecast past the short range - so confidence in the extended forecast is fairly low.
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Time will tell how this winter will be judged.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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