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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Clearing and colder.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper teens to lower 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 23-26 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: Mostly sunny skies - just a few clouds - colder.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 37 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43-46 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A slight chance for some flurries.
Near normal temperatures
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 20s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 23-26 degrees.
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: Partly sunny skies.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 45 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43-46 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: A stormy morning greeted our region. The areas first widespread thunderstorms impacted our local states between midnight and noon. The most intense storms were around the St Louis, Missouri area where numerous reports of hail were received.
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Here are some of the storm reports from the early morning storms - the blue dots are hail reports and the orange dots are wind reports.
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Radar images showed the storms as they pushed through southern Indiana into southeast Missouri (these are from Tuesday morning) - click images for real size view (Gibson Ridge radar products)
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The cold front passed through the region with a SHARP drop in temperatures during the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. This ushered in a return to more seasonable temperatures.
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Here is the temperature map from around 9 am this morning - check out the below zero readings over the Northern Plains compared to our SIXTIES! Click image for real size view
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A weak wave will pass by our region on Wednesday night and Thursday - perhaps some clouds and maybe a flurry.
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Another storm system will approach our region on Friday into Friday night. Right now it appears that there may be enough moisture to produce some rain or a mixture of precipitation (watch for updates). There are a few data sets that show colder air with this system - I will update over the coming days if I see a shift in the storm track.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: A stormy morning greeted our region. The areas first widespread thunderstorms impacted our local states between midnight and noon. The most intense storms were around the St Louis, Missouri area where numerous reports of hail were received.
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Here are some of the storm reports from the early morning storms - the blue dots are hail reports and the orange dots are wind reports.
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Radar images showed the storms as they pushed through southern Indiana into southeast Missouri (these are from Tuesday morning) - click images for real size view (Gibson Ridge radar products)
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The cold front passed through the region with a SHARP drop in temperatures during the morning and afternoon hours on Tuesday. This ushered in a return to more seasonable temperatures.
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Here is the temperature map from around 9 am this morning - check out the below zero readings over the Northern Plains compared to our SIXTIES! Click image for real size view
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A weak wave will pass by our region on Wednesday night and Thursday - perhaps some clouds and maybe a flurry.
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Another storm system will approach our region on Friday into Friday night. Right now it appears that there may be enough moisture to produce some rain or a mixture of precipitation (watch for updates). There are a few data sets that show colder air with this system - I will update over the coming days if I see a shift in the storm track.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Can't rule out some flurries on Wednesday night and Thursday...
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We will need to monitor Friday into Saturday for a mixture of precipitation - watch for updates...
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Can't rule out some flurries on Wednesday night and Thursday...
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We will need to monitor Friday into Saturday for a mixture of precipitation - watch for updates...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 6th-20th
Event: Swing pattern with potential of arctic outbreaks mixed with above to well above normal temperatures - boundary near our region - uncertainty on the exact placement of the warm vs cold. Trends are towards several cold outbreaks - centered on the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. Possibly 2-3 precipitation events. Potential for 1 or 2 deep low pressure areas in the central U.S. into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region.
Severe Risk: Uncertain
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Wednesday the 18th - 0%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 5%
Thursday - 0%
Friday - 5%
Saturday - 5%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday the 24th - 0%
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1. No major changes in the long range outlook. A weak system on Friday into Saturday could bring some light precipitation. Another rain producer appears likely towards early next week - perhaps Tuesday or so. Models are not in good agreement on exact timing. Appears warm enough for rain and perhaps some thunderstorms.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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