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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Rain with a clap of thunder possible. Check out radars to track the rain - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees. Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 100% | Rainfall totals: 0.40"-0.80" locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: Rain with a clap of thunder possible - rain becoming more scattered during the afternoon. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 47-50 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Wind: Northwest winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.30"-0.60" - locally heavier
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday night: Evening showers ending - cooler.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 26 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Wind: Northwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Mostly sunny skies.
Highs: around 46-52 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather or winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather for the next 48 hours
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Slight chance for thunder
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Slight chance for thunder
Thursday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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To view the interactive map - click here.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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HEADLINE: Another wet forecast for our region - we can't seem to buy winter! A nearly snowless December and January for much of the region - we did have a couple of light events - but nothing extreme. Will February treat us the same? Check the long range outlook for the latest monthly temperature and precipitation forecast.
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Check out radars to track the rain - click here.
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Here is what the precipitation map will look like on Thursday - wet.
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Rain will continue into Thursday across our region. Rainfall totals from the entire event will likely be in the 1-2" range over much of the region. There will certainly be a few spots that will pick up a bit more than that. This is not what we need right now. Rivers and streams are in flood stage across parts of our region - for the latest flood warnings click here.
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The good news is that we are not expecting any major winter storms (that is good news for some of you who hate winter). Sorry snow fans - I keep looking for something/anything. I keep coming up empty handed.
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Here is the satellite view of the current storm system over our region - large area of clouds and moisture covering the central and southern United States.
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Check out the regional radar map - this image was from Wednesday morning - you can see the large area of rain and thunderstorms covering not only our region but a large part of the southern United States, as well. See the squall line in Texas? That is producing some severe thunderstorm and tornado watches/warnings. That part of this system will stay to our south - I am not concerned about severe thunderstorms in our region.
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Temperatures continue to average above normal over our region - this has been the rule during December and January. The cold spells have been brief and transient in nature.
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The following maps show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures are expected to be over the next few days - mostly above normal.
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A lot of people have been asking about the solar flare that occurred a few days ago - you can learn more about the storm by clicking here.
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There have been some spectacular images from around the globe - northern lights. Here are a couple of images from the above link. I encourage you to view some of the others on their web-site. Spectacular is the word!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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HEADLINE: Another wet forecast for our region - we can't seem to buy winter! A nearly snowless December and January for much of the region - we did have a couple of light events - but nothing extreme. Will February treat us the same? Check the long range outlook for the latest monthly temperature and precipitation forecast.
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Check out radars to track the rain - click here.
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Here is what the precipitation map will look like on Thursday - wet.
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Rain will continue into Thursday across our region. Rainfall totals from the entire event will likely be in the 1-2" range over much of the region. There will certainly be a few spots that will pick up a bit more than that. This is not what we need right now. Rivers and streams are in flood stage across parts of our region - for the latest flood warnings click here.
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The good news is that we are not expecting any major winter storms (that is good news for some of you who hate winter). Sorry snow fans - I keep looking for something/anything. I keep coming up empty handed.
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Here is the satellite view of the current storm system over our region - large area of clouds and moisture covering the central and southern United States.
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Temperatures continue to average above normal over our region - this has been the rule during December and January. The cold spells have been brief and transient in nature.
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The following maps show you how many degrees above or below normal temperatures are expected to be over the next few days - mostly above normal.
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A lot of people have been asking about the solar flare that occurred a few days ago - you can learn more about the storm by clicking here.
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There have been some spectacular images from around the globe - northern lights. Here are a couple of images from the above link. I encourage you to view some of the others on their web-site. Spectacular is the word!
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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No significant snow in our forecast...
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Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
Enhanced snowfall interactive forecast maps . You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well- click here
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Snowfall forecast maps - these are interactive maps. You can choose your total snowfall amounts above the map - time frame, as well - click here
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If you are looking for wintry precipitation - click here.
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: January 17th-February 10th
Event: Continued SWING pattern appears likely now. Potential for 5-8 precipitation events. NAO may move into neutral territory (MAYBE negative at times) - giving us the potential for a few wintry precipitation events. Some data shows periods of WELL above normal temperatures. Potential for some wild temperature swings in the coming weeks. This could mean thunderstorms during the time period, as well.
Severe Risk: Possible thunderstorms
Frozen Precipitation Risk: Possibly
Details: Potential for some significant swings in the temperature pattern.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I will NOT mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance. I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. The word severe will be reserved for the short range forecast.
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What are the chances for a winter STORM event (see definition below - this DOES NOT include chances for light winter precipitation - this is for winter STORMS) over southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, northeast Arkansas, or northwest Tennessee?
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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I am adding an extended Winter STORM outlook...
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Winter STORM would be the potential for snow accumulating to 2" or more - icy travel conditions with enough sleet or freezing rain to cause advisories and/or winter storm watches/warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service.
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Keep in mind that the percentages DO NOT mean that is what will actually fall from the sky. It is the potential of a winter storm developing and impacting our region. The ACTUAL forecast snowfall or ice totals are only issued in the SHORT range discussion (top of the blog page)..
Thursday the 26th - 0%
Friday - 0%
Saturday - 0%
Sunday - 0%
Monday - 0%
Tuesday - 0%
Wednesday the 1st of February - 0%
.1. The good news is that I don't have anything dramatic or extreme to talk about in the long range outlook - several shots at precipitation over the next week or two. There were hints of a bigger storm system towards the first week of February - I will have to monitor that time frame to see if a northern and southern system can phase. This would mean a bigger precipitation event in our region. Uncertainties, though, as to whether we can bring in enough cold air for it to be produce winter precipitation. Will monitor - as always.
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A weak disturbance will pass over the area on Friday night and Saturday - this might bring a few more clouds and even a chance for a sprinkle or flurry. The atmosphere will be fairly dry, however, so I am not expecting much - nor is the NWS.
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Tuesday into Wednesday of next week may provide another opportunity at some light rain. Another shot around February 4th-6th. Appears to be a rain event - at this time.
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Our winter of discontent is slipping through our fingers. Meteorological Spring arrives March 1st. Time keeps ticking on.
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The official February outlook has been issued by NOAA - it is indicating warmer than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for our region - at least that is what the probabilities favor at this time.
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A weak disturbance will pass over the area on Friday night and Saturday - this might bring a few more clouds and even a chance for a sprinkle or flurry. The atmosphere will be fairly dry, however, so I am not expecting much - nor is the NWS.
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Tuesday into Wednesday of next week may provide another opportunity at some light rain. Another shot around February 4th-6th. Appears to be a rain event - at this time.
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Our winter of discontent is slipping through our fingers. Meteorological Spring arrives March 1st. Time keeps ticking on.
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The official February outlook has been issued by NOAA - it is indicating warmer than normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for our region - at least that is what the probabilities favor at this time.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of these maps can be viewed straight off of the Weather Observatory Web-Site
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