Sunday-Tuesday - May 15th-17th - cool and damp!

Sunday-Tuesday - May 15th-17th, 2011  

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Going to cover the next few days in one post!
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Did you know that April produced over 800 tornadoes!  A normal YEAR produces around 1000-1200 tornadoes.  We had over 800 in ONE MONTH!  That is simply incredible - from a meteorological point of view.  Now - May has arrived and guess what - extreme low numbers of tornadoes.  There have only been around 25 tornadoes reported.  From one extreme to the next!  
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As I mentioned in late April - the first half of May would be quiet when it came to severe weather reports.
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Here is a map showing all of the tornadoes (red dots) in April (map produced by the Storm Prediction Center)
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Now - here is the same map for  May - granted May is only half over - but still!  This is quite amazing.  Very low numbers (May is normally one of the more active tornado months).  The next 3-4 days will also bring below normal severe weather reports - so tack on another few days to this map.
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I fully expect our extreme weather pattern to continue.
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Check out the short term drought maps - we are incredibly wet across our region (the blue area is wet and the red area is dry).  Remember we are coming off of a drought (last summer/fall/winter).  I always say we live in feast or famine across our region - the extremes never sense to amaze me.
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I have been saying for the last 3-4 years that we are in a 1910-1920 pattern and a 1930s pattern.  Extremes - cold - warm - wet - dry.   Record ice - record snows - record flooding.
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Click image for full size.  Notice how the extreme wet area (in blue) is right next to the extreme dry areas (in red)
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Weather...
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Cloudy and cool weather - with some showers will continue into Monday.  We will experience near record cold temperatures on Monday night - parts of our area will dip into the 30s!
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How much below normal will the temperatures be this week?  Well - let's just take a look at Monday (for an example) - anywhere from TEN to TWENTY degrees BELOW normal!!!!!  This - coming off of last weeks WARM temperatures.  Got to love spring!
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The map below shows you how many degrees below normal we will be (this is not the temperature forecast - but rather how many degrees below the averages)
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The next weather system, of concern, will arrive next Thursday night or Friday.  Can't rule out severe thunderstorms with that system in or near our region.  This system may stall out in or near our region - causing an unsettled pattern into the following week.
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The exact placement of severe weather, late next week, will depend on the track of the area of low pressure (and the intensity of the low).  If the low tracks south of our counties then the severe weather threat will remain mostly to our south.  Further north and we may have a few severe storms.
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Active and unsettled weather may continue into the end of the month.  Stay tuned.

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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer



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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here
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Sunday: Cloudy and cooler.  Scattered showers likely.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  in the middle 50s | Wind: west winds at 5-15 mph.  Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees.

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Sunday night:  Cloudy and cool.  Scattered showers.  Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 42-45 degrees  |  Wind: northwest winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 52-54 degrees.
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Monday:  Cloudy and cooler.  A chance for a few showers.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 58 degrees  | Wind: west winds at 10-15 mph.  Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees.
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Monday night: Clearing with near record low temperatures.  Cold.  Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 37-41 degrees  |  Wind: north winds at 5 mph. Normal lows are around 52-54 degrees..
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Tuesday:  Partly sunny and cool.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 58-61 degrees  | Wind: north winds at 10-15.  Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees.
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here
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Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management also now has a Facebook?  You can view it here
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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River Stages - Click Here

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished!  Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.

Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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Cooler temperatures into the early part of the new work week.  Scattered showers will be possible Sunday into Monday.  Otherwise cloudy and cool.
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Need to check radar today?  - click here.
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Continued flooding.  Rivers will continue to fall in the coming days.  See lake and river stage forecasts.

Below normal temperatures will continue into the middle of the new work week.
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Scattered showers and cloudy sky conditions Sunday and Monday.  Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.30" can be expected in areas that receive rain (scattered in nature)
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Snake bites - a number of people have reported snakes escaping the flood waters and moving into areas they are normally not seen. 
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Remember you can view all of the temperature maps below - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Sunday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow... 


Sunday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  River flooding will continue.
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Sunday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  River flooding will continue. 

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Monday: Severe storms are not expected.  Flooding will continue on area rivers.  
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Monday night: Severe storms are not expected.  Flooding will continue on area rivers.
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Tuesday: Severe storms are not expected.  Flooding will continue on area rivers. 
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Rainfall totals for the next 72 hours.  The scale is at the top of the graphic.
 
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You can view the updated rainfall forecast maps - updated twice a day by going to the Weather Observatory Forecast Site - Click Here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts!  Maps are available by clicking here. 

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1. Cooler to much cooler weather is likely to continue into the middle of the week - showers will be possible on Sunday into Monday.  

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2.  Severe weather chances may increase again around May 20th-31st.  A more "spring like" storm system will bring several days of severe weather to the central and eastern United States.  Potential for hail, high winds, and tornadoes.  I will have to fine tune the forecast.
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And one last map for you - this is the precipitation outlook for late next week into next weekend.  The green area indicates where above normal precipitation will likely occur.  This map isn't showing how much it will rain - just where precipitation will be below or above normal.  
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Have you joined the email list?  I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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