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HEADLINE: Calm for our region - much warmer! .
We have almost made it to meteorological summer - what is meteorological summer? Meteorologists break the seasons down into three month periods - meteorological summer runs from June through August. .
So with that in mind - let's take a look at some of my thoughts (and the thoughts of a few others) for the upcoming summer pattern. .
One thing I am watching for is where the high pressure ridge (in the summer the high pressure ridge to our south means sinking air - in the summer these type of high pressure systems produce hot conditions over our region) sets up this summer. If it sets up near our region then we can expect warm/hot and dry conditions. However if it sets up far enough to our south or southwest then we would be in the ring of fire region. .
What is the ring of fire? The ring of fire is an area of showers and thunderstorms that normally occur along the edge of the big high pressure ridge. That is because the jet stream goes around the area of high pressure. The jet stream is where we normally find active weather. Winds - high aloft - strong winds. These stronger winds help support thunderstorm complexes.
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I have made a map below - the L's represent areas of low pressure - the big H would be the summer high pressure "heat ridge" that normally sets up shop somewhere near our region. Imagine the heat ridge as a clock - moving storms systems around the edge of the clock - normally that is called the ring of fire. The ring of fire would be storms/thunderstorms/squall lines that rotate around the edge of the area of high pressure. .
It is in these areas - the thunderstorm areas - that can receive above normal rainfall and severe weather. Last year that ring of fire pummeled Iowa and parts of Illinois and Indiana with significant rain and flooding. .
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Right now it appears that the first half of June may very well provide a decent opportunity for warmer than normal conditions before we move towards a pattern more conducive for more frequent cold fronts. This would be more towards the middle/latter half of June into July..
There is already hints of a trough in the east as early as the middle of next week - a trough would bring cooler than normal temperatures to at least portions of the Ohio Valley and northeast. So - we are already going to be keeping an eye on the pattern in the short range. But, again - not before some very warm temperatures during the upcoming week.
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Temperatures will be anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal over our region during the coming days. .
That isn't to say we won't have some active weather in the coming 2 week period. It does appear we have at least a chance for some active storms as we move into next week (week of the 5th). I am watching a couple of systems that could spark showers and thunderstorms during that time period. .
Also during the summer months we have to start thinking about mesoscale thunderstorm complexes.These are large thunderstorm areas that form at night and normally move towards the east/southeast. They can bring heavy rain and high winds - even tornadoes. Again - these complexes of storms usually form on the outer edge of the high pressure ridge. So where the high pressure ridge sets up this summer will be important as far as our sensible weather (what is actually happening in our local counties).
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Here is a satellite image of a mesoscale thunderstorm complex (this isn't current)..
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If the summer forecast pans out as expected then we might see quite a few of these systems push through portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Watch for me posting satellite images of the mesoscale complexes as they form in the coming weeks. .
The potential for some damaging squall line - high wind events is definitely on the map - as they say. .
Anytime you have strong cold fronts busting through the heat you can experience thunderstorms with the energy to produce widespread wind damage events. Something I will definitely be watching in the coming weeks. The late 1970s and early 1980s brought several of those events to our region.
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Something else to keep in mind - as we look at the current pattern - is the presence of a significant drought to our southwest - covering portions of Texas and Oklahoma. This is the same drought that impacted our region last year. In contrast, we find our region under flooded conditions with above normal rainfall over the last 60 days.
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Here is the moisture anomaly map - feast or famine - as I like to say! .
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A tale of two extremes. Remember, I have said for several years now, that we are in a 1930s type pattern - extremes are to be expected and this is nothing new. I call it feast or famine. Too much rain - not enough rain - too hot - too cold. Nothing new under the sun - this is a typical cycle that our region experiences from time to time. .
Here are some maps showing you the extreme wet (blue areas) and extreme dry (red areas) covering portions of our region. I have circled the wet area with a green line and the drought/dry areas with a red line. See how close together they are? Feast or famine! Take your pick.
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The map above shows you the extreme drought impacting parts of the Kansas/Oklahoma/New Mexico/Arizona/Texas region and then that drought extends along the Gulf of Mexico. These areas are in desperate need of rain. A natural disaster in itself.
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Here is the official drought forecast from NOAA. NOAA is the organization that issues forecasts as to whether a drought is expected to worsen or improve. You can see that they are officially calling for some improvement. Let's hope that is the case. Click the image for real size view. .
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How much precipitation is needed to end the drought? Quite a bit in some areas - 10-17 inches! Tropical systems could certainly bring that much and more. One part of the forecast to keep an eye on in the coming months - tropical activity. Which could even start a bit earlier than usual this season..
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We also have to think about hurricane season - which begins this week. As we have learned over the years - hurricanes don't only impact the coastal regions. Our region experienced a widespread wind event from the remnants of Hurricane Ike. Winds of 50-90 mph were reported over much of the Paducah forecast area. The remnants of Ike, as many of you will remember, caused widespread power outages and wind damage. .
We have also witnessed some of the areas most intense flash flooding (remember Elena in 1985 in Paducah, Kentucky - flooding killed several children and caused major damage to homes and businesses). Many times tropical systems will slow down and meander in and near our region. This can cause significant rainfall totals. Not to mention isolated tornadoes from the spinning arms of tropical system. There is no way to forecast whether one of these events will happen from year to year. It is simply something to be mindful of as push into hurricane season. .
I found this chart on-line. This indicates the number of named storms that can be expected this year. Numbers are meaningless - in reality. If one major hurricane, like Hurricane Katrina or Andrew, hits the United States then it was a bad hurricane season. If there are 20 named storms and all of them stay off-shore then does anyone really care (tree falling in the forecast vs a tree falling on your home)? .
Reality vs sensible weather sometimes do not match up. Sensible weather is what YOU care about.
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It is impossible for forecasters to know how many hurricanes will actually hit the United States this year. If someone tells you New Orleans or New York is going to be hit by a hurricane this season then they are making it up - it is simply impossible for meteorologists to know more than a few days in advance. .
Bottom line for hurricane season - as ALL hurricane seasons - those along the coastlines should stay updated on tropical forecasts and listen to emergency management officials as this season unfolds. The upcoming tropical season has the potential to produce some significant hurricanes. National Hurricane Season web-site..
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So - there is a lot to consider in the coming months. Whether we actually end up with the cooler than normal temperatures in July and August (as expected) or a drought situation with hotter than normal conditions. Inquiring minds want to know! .
Tough call - and keep in mind that long range forecasting is not an exact science. .
Most of the analog years point towards cooler than normal conditions for July and August - which would tend to also mean normal to above normal precipitation. We may have a warm start - over the next few weeks - before things level out a bit. I am not a fan of the heat and humidity - so I am rooting for the cooler solutions to verify. Others of you may actually like the heat and humidity. I guess the battle lines are drawn!.
I should note that there are significant disagreement among national forecasters in how the summer plays out - with some calling for extreme heat (like the 1988 episode) and others calling for a virtual year without a summer for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Obviously both can't be correct. Thus the fun of long range forecasting.
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One big concern I have concerning the below normal temperature potential is the extreme drought to our southwest. Never like to see drought knocking on the door - even though we have been wet. In this type of extreme pattern (as we have seen) we can go from flooding rains to no rain at all - within weeks. So - this is definitely in the back of my mind as we move forward into summer. .
Here is the official outlook for temperatures - June into August. You can see that our region has been placed in the below normal temperature range. Remember - this is for all three months averaged out. There will certainly be extremes along the way. And note the warmer than normal temperatures are not far away..
But, I will say this, in a year that has been full of surprises and extremes - one would be wise to stay tuned to future changes in the forecast! We may have a number of tropical systems to track - along with the mesoscale thunderstorm complexes.
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Bottom Line...
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Remember that weather is made up of extremes and we are in an extreme climate pattern. This means that we may see the pendulum swing from much above normal temperatures to much below normal temperatures - similar to what we have been experiencing over the last year..
Several squall line events could produce widespread wind damage potential - winds greater than 80 mph. We will also have to monitor the potential for slow moving thunderstorm complexes that could produce pockets of flash flooding. Those meso-scale complexes that form in the summer can produce some locally heavy rain.
We will be watching La Nina as she dies away in the Pacific - we will enter a more neutral Enso pattern - neither La Nina or El Nina - at least for the short term. Then we will have to see if La Nina returns towards fall and winter of 2011-2011..
We will have to keep a close eye on the tropics as systems move into the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that several significant tropical systems could cause problems for our neighboring states. Above normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico is a recipe for trouble.And now back to the current forecast...
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It does appear warmer than normal weather will continue into the near term. The long range may bring more below normal temperatures - but not before several above to much above normal days. Remember that normal temperatures this time of the year are around the 78-80 degree mark. We should be well into the 80s and perhaps even some 90s in the coming days. Quite a bit above normal..
Did you know that you can now check the latest current conditions - temperatures/wind speed/dew points and more? Click Here This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here---
Monday: Mostly sunny. Warm (bordering on hot) and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the upper 80s to lower 90s | Wind: southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs are around 78 degrees. .
Monday night: Clear and mild. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 69 degrees | Wind: southerly winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 58 degrees.
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Tuesday: More sun than clouds. Warm and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 87-92 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph. A higher gust possible on area lakes. Normal highs are around 78 degrees.---
Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 70 degrees | Wind: South winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 58 degrees..---
Wednesday: Partly sunny. A small chance for thunderstorms. Warm and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 87-90 degrees | Wind: southerly winds at 10-15. Normal highs are around 78 degrees..
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here
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Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management also now has a Facebook? You can view it here
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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Remember you can view all of the temperature maps below - and more - by clicking here
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Below image - Low temperatures for Monday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Monday afternoon
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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon
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How much above normal will high temperatures be on Monday? Several degrees! The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 78-80 degrees).
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Monday: No severe weather is anticipated.
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Monday night: No severe weather is anticipated.
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Tuesday: No severe thunderstorms are anticipated.
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Tuesday Night: No severe thunderstorms are anticipated. .
Wednesday: No severe thunderstorms are anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop in the heat of the day as a weak disturbance moves through the region. .
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
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High temperatures for Friday - if the weather map verifies - will be warm over a large chunk of real estate (the purple areas are HOT - temps in the 90s). High temperature map from www.wright-weather.com
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2. It appears warmer than normal temperatures are ahead of us - at least in the medium range - here are some updated maps for temperature anomalies. Yellow/orange/red would be above normal temperatures and the blue area would indicate below normal temperatures. Keep in mind these maps are updated a few times a week. .
Overall it does appear warm - but we will be keeping an eye on an area of cool high pressure trying to move southeast from Canada later next week, as well! This would be from June 2nd - June 10th .
Remember that this map shows you where above or below normal temperatures are forecast - the orange/red area represents ABOVE normal temperatures. .
Here is the 6-10 day temperature outlook (normal temperatures are in the upper 70s for this time of the year). We will be keeping an eye on these maps in the days to come to see if there is any adjustment in the event the high pressure (the Canadian high pressure - which is not the same as the heat ridge to our south) brings in cooler than normal temperatures at some point next week..
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Here is the 8-14 day outlook map.
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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
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