.
Morning update issued at 11 AM
.
.
I don't think anyone is complaining that May is turning into the complete opposite of April? Lack of severe weather and tornadoes - we needed a break. Let's hope we can keep right on rolling along..
For today the Storm Prediction Center has removed our region from the severe weather outlook. I wouldn't be surprised to see a few strong cells this afternoon and evening in or near the region. But widespread severe storms are not likely.
.
Tomorrow will bring a better chance for strong thunderstorms - wind fields are pathetically weak for this time of the year. Although there will be plenty of instability. So - even though the wind fields are weak we could still have a few severe storms. Normally - typically - you would want stronger wind fields for a large severe weather outbreak..
Tomorrow's event will have decent instability - but will lack the strong wind fields..
Here is the updated day 1 severe weather outlook - the orange area is the "slight" risk that SPC has placed over portions of the central United States. You can compared that with the old map (further down in the post - and see the shift westward). The yellow area means general thunderstorms are possible but they are not likely to be severe..
,
Thursday, May 12, 2011
.
.
May has been quiet when it comes to tornadoes! A bit unusual - especially after the hyper-active month of April. This graphic below shows you the tornadoes for the past week. Some of these red dots were actually funnel clouds. Very quiet. You can view these graphics - with details - here.
.
.
A cold front will approach our region on Thursday night and move slowly through the region on Friday and Friday night. The area of low pressure, associated with the cold front, will then meander over our region into the weekend. Our region will remain in a moist and warm air mass on Thursday into Friday. The area of low pressure and cold front will help trigger showers and thunderstorms in our area into the weekend.
.
Rainfall totals will likely be in the 0.50"-1.00" range with locally heavier amounts possible. .
A few of the thunderstorms may be severe on Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon over our region. The most likely area for severe weather will be from St Louis, Missouri into southeast Missouri and northeast Arkansas - westward. There will be isolated severe storms over southern Illinois and western Kentucky. .
Much cooler air will arrive with an upper level low over the weekend and into early next week. This cool air will be associated with quite a few clouds and some showers (possibly even some small hail as we will have a lot of cold air aloft and the freezing level may be quite low in the atmosphere)..
This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox. There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer.
THANK YOU EVERYONE for all the help in our local communities - you are truly heroes!
.
---
---
This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here---
Thursday: Partly sunny. A few showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: in the upper 80s | Wind: south winds at 5-15 mph. Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees. .
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms may be strong or severe. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 67 degrees | Wind: southwest winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 52-54 degrees.
---
Friday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few storms may be strong or severe. Warm and humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 78 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees.---
Friday night: Showers and a few thunderstorms. Cooler. Near normal temperatures.
Lows: around 55 degrees | Wind: southwest winds at 5-15 mph. Normal lows are around 52-54 degrees..---
Saturday: Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: around 64 degrees | Wind: west/northwest winds at 10-15 mph and gusty. Below normal highs are around 74-75 degrees..
Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management also now has a Facebook? You can view it here
.
.
Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
.
Rivers will be slow to fall in the coming days. There will continue to be pressure on the levee systems. This is, of course, a concern.
.
Rivers will be slow to fall in the coming days. There will continue to be pressure on the levee systems. This is, of course, a concern.
.
River Stages - Click Here
.
A flood warning continues for our area - see the detailed information on watches and warnings by clicking here.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
.
Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
.
.
.
Need to check radar today? - click here.
.
.
.
Continued flooding. Rivers will continue to fall in the coming days. See lake and river stage forecasts.
Warm and humid outside - drink some extra fluids.
.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase on Thursday and Friday. Shower chances will continue into Saturday. Rainfall totals between Thursday and Saturday will be in the 0.50"-1.00". The heavier amounts will fall where thunderstorms develop. Cooler weather will move into the area during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
.
A few of the thunderstorms could be severe on Thursday night into Friday afternoon. Gusty winds and hail would be the primary concern. Lightning, as well.
Snake bites - a number of people have reported snakes escaping the flood waters and moving into areas they are normally not seen.
Snake bites - a number of people have reported snakes escaping the flood waters and moving into areas they are normally not seen.
.
-----------------------------
-----------------------------
.
.
Below image - Low temperatures for Thursday morning
.
..
Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon
.
.
Below image - High temperatures for Friday afternoon
.
--------------------
---
---
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Today (Thursday) Some severe storms are possible - especially over the western part of the area - mainly southeast Missouri. River flooding will continue.
.
Tonight (Thursday night) A few severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail will be possible. Heavy downpours with thunderstorms. River flooding will continue.
.
Friday: A few severe thunderstorms are possible with gusty winds and hail. Heavy downpours are possible with thunderstorms. Flooding will continue on area rivers. .
.
Here is the official forecast graphic from the Storm Prediction Center for Thursday's severe weather outlook. They have placed portions of our region in a slight risk for severe weather. Remember slight risk means that severe weather is likely but is not expected to be widespread in nature. I know it is a bit confusing that they use the word slight - but that is how they do it! You can view the updated graphics by clicking here..
.
Then the Friday severe weather outlook - the SPC has placed us in a slight risk for severe weather, as well. So both Thursday night into Friday will bring some threat for a few watches and warnings. The event on Friday will depend on how unstable the atmosphere becomes.
.
.
Rainfall totals for the next 72 hours. The scale is at the top of the graphic. Mostly 1/2-1" amounts for our region between now and Saturday night. Pockets of heavier rain will occur if thunderstorms train over the same counties.
.
.
You can view the updated rainfall forecast maps - updated twice a day by going to the Weather Observatory Forecast Site - Click Here
.
.
We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
---
--------------------
.
---
--
You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
.
.
Here is the medium range temperature outlook - after the warm spell over the next few days the medium range outlook is for below normal temperatures. This would be for May 15th through May 19th. .
.
Then as we look further down the road (new graphic - updated on May 10th) - May 20th through May 24th - you see temperatures start to move towards more normal values and even a bit above normal.
.
.
1. Cooler to much cooler weather is likely this coming weekend into part of next week - showers will be possible on Saturday. Temperatures will only be in the 60s later this weekend and early next week. A bit on the chilly side!
.
2. Severe weather chances may increase again around May 20th-27th. A more "spring like" storm system will bring several days of severe weather to the central and eastern United States. Potential for hail, high winds, and tornadoes. Will have to fine tune the forecast - long way off..
You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
.
Have you joined the email list? I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather. Basically this is a "heads up" email. If you would like to subscribe then click here...
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
---
Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
---
----------------------
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
---
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
---
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
---
Other States- Click Here
---
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!
No comments:
Post a Comment