Morning update...
Showers and thunderstorms are pushing through the region. Locally heavy rain with the heaviest cells. Lightning is the main concern with the storms. Radars are up and running - click here.
Storms are moving off to the east/southeast at 30 mph. Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.40" can be expected.
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A satellite view of the thunderstorm complex moving over the region.
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- Once the storms move through then we should see quite a bit of sunshine this afternoon. The sunshine should heat things back up a little bit and could help spark some more showers and thunderstorms. Scattered in nature.
Beau
Saturday, May 07, 2011
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THANK YOU EVERYONE for all the help in our local communities - you are truly heroes!
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A slow start to the May severe weather season - with the first week of May bringing very little in the way of severe weather to the nation. This is good news. Of course we have had to deal with major flooding - but it could be worse. At least we are not dealing with our typical severe weather pattern that we experience this time of the year..
Here is a map showing all of the reports of tornadoes over the last seven days. Not too bad - especially compared to what happened in April (which was non-stop tornado events). You can view this graphic with details by clicking here
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Now let's take a look back at the epic outbreak of severe storms a little over a week ago - with hundreds still missing and hundreds killed - this was one of the largest outbreaks of my lifetime. .
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How wet have we been the last 30 days? Here is a map showing the percent of normal rainfall - we have been anywhere from 300-500% above normal in the rainfall department (no wonder we have a flood on our hands). That, my friends, is simply incredible. Historic. This map is produced by the High Plains Regional Climate Center..
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Now let's take a look at how many inches of rain fell - the scale for this graph is on the right. Incredible numbers - anywhere from 10-20+ inches of rain across our region. Historic..
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Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management also now has a Facebook? You can view it here
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Rivers will be slow to fall in the coming days. There will continue to be pressure on the levee systems. This is, of course, a concern.
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Rivers will be slow to fall in the coming days. There will continue to be pressure on the levee systems. This is, of course, a concern.
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River Stages - Click Here
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Here is the Paducah Hydrograph (basically just a graph showing the current stage and the forecast stage) - the river will stay high for quite some time. You can, however, see the slow drop that is beginning.
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Here is the Paducah Hydrograph (basically just a graph showing the current stage and the forecast stage) - the river will stay high for quite some time. You can, however, see the slow drop that is beginning.
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A flood warning continues for our area - see the detailed information on watches and warnings by clicking here.
The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished! Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.
Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page
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A few showers and thunderstorms will be scattered over the region on Saturday. It will not rain all day and I suspect some areas will miss the rain all together. Check radar before you head out for the exact placement of the showers. Otherwise - it will be a bit warmer on Saturday with quite a few clouds around. Once the showers move out then we should see some breaks in the clouds with a bit of sun - this could cause a bit of instability - thus a few showers and storms may redevelop during the afternoon hours.
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Rainfall totals (in areas that receive rain) will be less than 0.40". Again, I don't believe everyone will experience rain.
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Need to check radar today? - click here.
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Continued flooding. Concern will increase with each passing day that the strain on levees could cause some to break. Be prepared for flash flooding in the event of a levee breach. Have life jackets and other emergency supplies ready for immediate deployment in the event of a breach.
A few showers and thunderstorms around on Saturday - rainfall totals will be less than 0.40" - for those counties that receive rain. A few lightning bolts will be a concern, of course, with any thunderstorms that form. Storms are not forecast to be severe.
Snake bites - a number of people have reported snakes escaping the flood waters and moving into areas they are normally not seen.
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky---
Saturday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms around the region. Becoming partly sunny during the afternoon hours. A few additional showers/thunderstorms may form during the afternoon hours. Warmer. Near normal temperatures.
Highs: in the upper 60s and lower 70s | Wind: south winds at 5-15 mph. Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees. .
Saturday night: Partly cloudy. Not as cool as recent nights. Above normal temperatures.Lows: around 57 degrees | Wind: southwest winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 52-54 degrees.
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Sunday: Partly sunny. A stray/isolated thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon. Warmer and more humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 83 degrees | Wind: southeast winds at 10 mph. Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees.---
Sunday night: A few scattered showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, mostly cloudy and mild. Above normal temperatures.
Lows: around 64 degrees | Wind: south winds at 5 mph. Normal lows are around 52-54 degrees..---
Monday: Partly sunny and warm - humid. Above normal temperatures.
Highs: around 84 degrees | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph. Normal highs are around 74-75 degrees..
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Below image - Low temperatures for Saturday morning
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Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon
Below image - High temperatures for Saturday afternoon
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Below image - High temperatures for Sunday afternoon
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow...
Today (Saturday) A few showers and storms around. Lightning would be the main concern. Severe weather is not anticipated - although a strong thunderstorm is possible. Flooding will continue.
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Tonight (Saturday night) Dry. Flooding will continue.
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Sunday: Chance for a stray thunderstorm - if a storm were to form then gusty winds and lightning would be the main concern. Severe weather is not anticipated. Flooding will continue on area rivers..
Here is the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (the SPC is the agency that issues severe weather outlooks for the nation). The area in yellow means general thunderstorms are forecast but are not expected to produce severe weather (severe weather is defined by the National Weather Service as a thunderstorm that produces a tornado, 58 mph winds, and/or quarter size or larger hail)..
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Rainfall totals for the next 24 hours - I suspect some counties won't receive much rain at all. The green area (scale is at the top of the graphic) indicates 0.10-0.40" of rainfall..
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You can view the updated rainfall forecast maps - updated twice a day by going to the Weather Observatory Forecast Site - Click Here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!---
We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts! Maps are available by clicking here.
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Let's take a look at these updated 6-10 day outlook maps. This will be for next Thursday (May 12th) through Monday (May 16th). Note the cooler than average temperatures and above normal precipitation. After a warm week it appears we will cool off towards the end of next week into next weekend.
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Six to Ten Day Temperature Map (the blue area indicates that the chances favor below normal temperatures).
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Now let's take a look at the six to ten day precipitation map. The green area favors above normal precipitation. .
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We can also look even further down the road - hmmm - interesting pattern if this verifies. More below normal temperatures. This would signify a trough in the eastern United States - which could help keep severe weather threats to a minimum. Time will tell.
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1. We will have a few scattered thunderstorms on Sunday into Wednesday - I don't believe widespread storms will form until Thursday or Friday. We will be in an unstable air mass - meaning warm and more humid - this typically would cause a few thunderstorms to form. This will be especially true if we get a disturbance moving through the region - one such disturbance is forecast for Sunday night (more to our north - but I will monitor the track). Another one on Tuesday or Tuesday night. .
2. Temperatures and dew points will be on the rise next week with highs likely in the 80s and dew points in the 60s and 70s. It will, at times, feel muggy next week. .
3. A cold front is forecast to pass through the region on Thursday and Friday. This front should help spark some showers and thunderstorms. After the front passes through then temperatures should moderate a bit..
You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson---
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here
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