Wednesday, June 1, 2011: Meteorological summer has arrived

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

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HEADLINE:  The heat is on!  Slight chance for a thunderstorm.

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Meteorological summer has arrived - meteorologists consider summer to run from June 1st through the end of August.  And right on cue - the heat is on.  Hazy, hot, and humid conditions will continue into the weekend - as a matter of fact the warmest air may arrive Friday into Sunday.
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I am adding the heat index graphics below and also a tropical outlook.  Hurricane season officially begins today - June 1st.
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There will be a weak front near the region on Wednesday - that means there could be a shower or storm pop up - especially over our northern counties.  Also keep in mind that with the increasingly hot and humid air-mass we could have a few storms pop up through the week - very scattered in nature.  Most areas will remain dry.

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Let's take a look at the past week - these are the high wind and tornado reports - most of this activity occurred on the 25th.  Click here for more detailed information.

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Here is the Storm Predictions Centers reports from the high risk day - the 25th of May.

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Did you know that you can now check the latest current conditions - temperatures/wind speed/dew points and more - we have hundreds of new graphics available to you!  Click Here

This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here
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Wednesday:  Hot and humid.  A scattered thunderstorm is possible - especially over our northern counties.  Well above normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the 87-90 degree range  | Heat index:  Values in the 94 to 98 range | Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph. Normal highs are around 78 degrees.

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Wednesday night:  Partly cloudy - a stray shower or storm can't be ruled out over our northern counties.   Well above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 68-70 degrees  |  Wind: Northeast winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 58 degrees.

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Thursday:  More sun than clouds.  Hot and humid.  Well above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 92-94 degrees   | Heat index:  Values in the 95 to 99 range | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph. A higher gust possible on area lakes.  Normal highs are around 78 degrees.

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Thursday night: A few clouds.  Well above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 70 degrees  |  Wind: South winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 58 degrees..

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Friday:  Partly sunny.  Hot and very muggy and humid.  Well above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 92-95 degrees  | Heat index:  Values in the 98 to 105 range | Wind: southerly winds at 10-15.  Normal highs are around 78 degrees.

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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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River Stages - Click Here

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished!  Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.

Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page

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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics - and more - by clicking here

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Below image - Low temperatures for Wednesday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Wednesday afternoon

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Below image - High temperatures for Thursday afternoon

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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for Wednesday afternoon.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body when the temperature and humidity are combined. 

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Heat safety advice and information - click here

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How much above normal will high temperatures be on Wednesday?  Several degrees!  The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 78-80 degrees).  For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal.  The map below is showing you how much above normal high temperatures should be on Wednesday.

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow... 

Wednesday: No severe weather is anticipated.  
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Wednesday night: No severe weather is anticipated. 
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Thursday:  No severe weather is anticipated.  
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Thursday Night:  No severe weather is anticipated.
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Friday:  No severe weather is anticipated.  High heat index values will make it quite uncomfortable to work outside.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We are not expecting any tropical development over the next 24 hours.  There is one area of disturbed area in the Caribbean and another off the southeast coast of the United States.  We will keep an eye on both of those areas of unsettled weather.  Latest National Hurricane Center Tropical Outlook - click here.

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Here is a satellite view of the disturbed weather off the southeast coast.  Click the image for a better resolution view.
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts!  Maps are available by clicking here. 

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1.  Warm weather to continue into the weekend.


You can also find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

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Have you joined the email list?  I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here

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This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!

May 31, 2011: Summer forecast

Posted this a few days ago - but will post again.  Some random thoughts and graphics about the on-going weather pattern and the coming months.

Summer Thoughts:

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We have almost made it to meteorological summer - what is meteorological summer?   Meteorologists break the seasons down into three month periods - meteorological summer runs from June through August.

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So with that in mind - let's take a look at some of my thoughts (and the thoughts of a few others) for the upcoming summer pattern.  

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One thing I am watching for is where the high pressure ridge (in the summer the high pressure ridge to our south means sinking air - in the summer these type of high pressure systems produce hot conditions over our region) sets up this summer.  If it sets up near our region then we can expect warm/hot and dry conditions.  However if it sets up far enough to our south or southwest then we would be in the ring of fire region.  
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What is the ring of fire?  The ring of fire is an area of showers and thunderstorms that normally occur along the edge of the big high pressure ridge.  That is because the jet stream goes around the area of high pressure.  The jet stream is where we normally find active weather.  Winds - high aloft - strong winds.  These stronger winds help support thunderstorm complexes.

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I have made a map below - the L's represent areas of low pressure - the big H would be the summer high pressure "heat ridge" that normally sets up shop somewhere near our region.  Imagine the heat ridge as a clock - moving storms systems around the edge of the clock - normally that is called the ring of fire.  The ring of fire would be storms/thunderstorms/squall lines that rotate around the edge of the area of high pressure.

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It is in these areas - the thunderstorm areas - that can receive above normal rainfall and severe weather.  Last year that ring of fire pummeled Iowa and parts of Illinois and Indiana with significant rain and flooding.

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Right now it appears that the first half of June may very well provide a decent opportunity for warmer than normal conditions before we move towards a pattern more conducive for more frequent cold fronts.  This would be more towards the middle/latter half of June into July.
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There is already hints of a trough in the east as early as the middle of next week - a trough would bring cooler than normal temperatures to at least portions of the Ohio Valley and northeast.  So - we are already going to be keeping an eye on the pattern in the short range.  But, again - not before some very warm temperatures during the upcoming week.  

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Temperatures will be anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal over our region during the coming days. 

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That isn't to say we won't have some active weather in the coming 2 week period.  It does appear we have at least a chance for some active storms as we move into next week (week of the 5th).  I am watching a couple of systems that could spark showers and thunderstorms during that time period.

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Also during the summer months we have to start thinking about mesoscale thunderstorm complexes.
These are large thunderstorm areas that form at night and normally move towards the east/southeast.  They can bring heavy rain and high winds - even tornadoes.  Again - these complexes of storms usually form on the outer edge of the high pressure ridge.  So where the high pressure ridge sets up this summer will be important as far as our sensible weather (what is actually happening in our local counties).

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Here is a satellite image of a mesoscale thunderstorm complex (this isn't current).
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If the summer forecast pans out as expected then we might see quite a few of these systems push through portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Watch for me posting satellite images of the mesoscale complexes as they form in the coming weeks.

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The potential for some damaging squall line - high wind events is definitely on the map - as they say. 
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Anytime you have strong cold fronts busting through the heat you can experience thunderstorms with the energy to produce widespread wind damage events.  Something I will definitely be watching in the coming weeks.  The late 1970s and early 1980s brought several of those events to our region.

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Something else to keep in mind - as we look at the current pattern - is the presence of a significant drought to our southwest - covering portions of Texas and Oklahoma.  This is the same drought that impacted our region last year.  In contrast, we find our region under flooded conditions with above normal rainfall over the last 60 days.  

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Here is the moisture anomaly map - feast or famine - as I like to say!

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A tale of two extremes.  Remember, I have said for several years now, that we are in a 1930s type pattern - extremes are to be expected and this is nothing new.  I call it feast or famine.  Too much rain - not enough rain - too hot - too cold.  Nothing new under the sun - this is a typical cycle that our region experiences from time to time. 
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Here are some maps showing you the extreme wet (blue areas) and extreme dry (red areas) covering portions of our region.  I have circled the wet area with a green line and the drought/dry areas with a red line.  See how close together they are?  Feast or famine!  Take your pick.

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The map above shows you the extreme drought impacting parts of the Kansas/Oklahoma/New Mexico/Arizona/Texas region and then that drought extends along the Gulf of Mexico.  These areas are in desperate need of rain.  A natural disaster in itself.

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Here is the official drought forecast from NOAA.  NOAA is the organization that issues forecasts as to whether a drought is expected to worsen or improve.  You can see that they are officially calling for some improvement.  Let's hope that is the case.  Click the image for real size view.

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How much precipitation is needed to end the drought?  Quite a bit in some areas - 10-17 inches!  Tropical systems could certainly bring that much and more.  One part of the forecast to keep an eye on in the coming months - tropical activity.  Which could even start a bit earlier than usual this season.
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We also have to think about hurricane season - which begins this week.  As we have learned over the years - hurricanes don't only impact the coastal regions.  Our region experienced a widespread wind event from the remnants of Hurricane Ike.  Winds of 50-90 mph were reported over much of the Paducah forecast area.  The remnants of Ike, as many of you will remember, caused widespread power outages and wind damage.  

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We have also witnessed some of the areas most intense flash flooding (remember Elena in 1985 in Paducah, Kentucky - flooding killed several children and caused major damage to homes and businesses).  Many times tropical systems will slow down and meander in and near our region.  This can cause significant rainfall totals.  Not to mention isolated tornadoes from the spinning arms of tropical system.  There is no way to forecast whether one of these events will happen from year to year.  It is simply something to be mindful of as push into hurricane season.

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I found this chart on-line.  This indicates the number of named storms that can be expected this year.  Numbers are meaningless - in reality.  If one major hurricane, like Hurricane Katrina or Andrew, hits the United States then it was a bad hurricane season.  If there are 20 named storms and all of them stay off-shore then does anyone really care (tree falling in the forecast vs a tree falling on your home)? 
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Reality vs sensible weather sometimes do not match up.  Sensible weather is what YOU care about.

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It is impossible for forecasters to know how many hurricanes will actually hit the United States this year.  If someone tells you New Orleans or New York is going to be hit by a hurricane this season then they are making it up - it is simply impossible for meteorologists to know more than a few days in advance. 

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Bottom line for hurricane season - as ALL hurricane seasons - those along the coastlines should stay updated on tropical forecasts and listen to emergency management officials as this season unfolds.  The upcoming tropical season has the potential to produce some significant hurricanes.  National Hurricane Season web-site.
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My thoughts on the hurricane season - highest risk zones may end up being over the eastern U.S. with some pockets elsewhere.
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So - there is a lot to consider in the coming months.  Whether we actually end up with the cooler than normal temperatures in July and August (as expected) or a drought situation with hotter than normal conditions.  Inquiring minds want to know!

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Tough call - and keep in mind that long range forecasting is not an exact science.  

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Most of the analog years point towards cooler than normal conditions for July and August - which would tend to also mean normal to above normal precipitation.  We may have a warm start - over the next few weeks - before things level out a bit.  I am not a fan of the heat and humidity - so I am rooting for the cooler solutions to verify.  Others of you may actually like the heat and humidity.  I guess the battle lines are drawn!
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I should note that there are significant disagreement among national forecasters in how the summer plays out - with some calling for extreme heat (like the 1988 episode) and others calling for a virtual year without a summer for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.  Obviously both can't be correct.  Thus the fun of long range forecasting.

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One big concern I have concerning the below normal temperature potential is the extreme drought to our southwest.  Never like to see drought knocking on the door - even though we have been wet.  In this type of extreme pattern (as we have seen) we can go from flooding rains to no rain at all - within weeks.  So - this is definitely in the back of my mind as we move forward into summer.

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Here is the official outlook for temperatures - June into August.  You can see that our region has been placed in the below normal temperature range.  Remember - this is for all three months averaged out.  There will certainly be extremes along the way.  And note the warmer than normal temperatures are not far away.
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But, I will say this, in a year that has been full of surprises and extremes - one would be wise to stay tuned to future changes in the forecast!   We may have a number of tropical systems to track - along with the mesoscale thunderstorm complexes. 

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Bottom Line...

I am in the camp that the summer will bring (more often than not) below normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation.  The summer may have an early kick-off with above normal temperatures (by summer I am talking June through August).

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Remember that weather is made up of extremes and we are in an extreme climate pattern.  This means that we may see the pendulum swing from much above normal temperatures to much below normal temperatures - similar to what we have been experiencing over the last year.

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Several squall line events could produce widespread wind damage potential - winds greater than 80 mph.  We will also have to monitor the potential for slow moving thunderstorm complexes that could produce pockets of flash flooding.  Those meso-scale complexes that form in the summer can produce some locally heavy rain

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We will be watching La Nina as she dies away in the Pacific - we will enter a more neutral Enso pattern - neither La Nina or El Nina - at least for the short term.  Then we will have to see if La Nina returns towards fall and winter of 2011-2011.

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We will have to keep a close eye on the tropics as systems move into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is possible that several significant tropical systems could cause problems for our neighboring states.  Above normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico is a recipe for trouble.

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Other meteorologists that have summer thoughts out are Larry Cosgrove, Joe Bastardi, Joseph D 'Aleo, an David Tolleris.  Not everyone agrees on the upcoming summer months - but all are worth a read.

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

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Have you joined the email list?  I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.
..

You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page and you can follow along - also please pass the link along to your friends.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois- Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here

To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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Other States- Click Here

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This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service!

Tuesday, May 31, 2011: Warm weather to continue

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

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3 PM Update...

Stay cool out there everyone!  It is hot.  Temperatures across the eastern United States are running anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal.  Here is a map showing the departures from normal readings.  Quite warm!  And - look out west - below normal temperatures.  This is not uncommon - normally when the eastern half of the United States is experiencing above normal temperatures you will find below normal temperatures out west.

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Tuesday, May 31, 2011
10 AM Update...

A few clouds around to our west as the area of showers and thunderstorms that formed over the Dakota's (see images below from last nights satellite views) continues to move east/southeast.  We do not expect storms to hold together in our local counties.  There are some storms on radar this morning towards the St Louis area - and then west and north of there.  These should continue to diminish of the coming hours.

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Here is a satellite image - IR Satellite - the bright colors are the cold cloud tops - this is NOT a radar image.  Radar shows rain and precipitation.  This image is showing clouds.  Click image for better resolution viewing.  The numbers represent current temperatures (already in the 80s) - ack.

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Tuesday, May 31, 2011

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HEADLINE:  Calm for our region - much warmer!  Summer thoughts are at the bottom of the post - reposted from Monday's update.

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Hot enough for you for Memorial Day?  Temperatures were anywhere from 10-15 degrees above normal.  That is warm by any standard.

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Here is a map showing afternoon temperatures on Monday - this was around the 4-5 pm time frame.  You can see the eastern half of the United States blanketed in warm air.

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Severe weather is pounding away tonight well to our north.  This is a satellite image from Monday evening showing the very high cloud tops from the Dakotas down into Kansas.  The bright colors are cold cloud tops.  The higher the cloud top the colder it will be.  The dark reds are extremely high clouds - likely over 50,000 feet in height!  Severe storms producing heavy rain, lightning hail, and high winds.  Even a few tornadoes will be possible with those storms.  But, that is them not us!  For once.
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Very large image - so I will reduce the size and you can click on the image for a full view of the satellite image.  The numbers, by the way, are temperature readings (from around 8 pm).

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I will zoom in a bit on the northern half of the thunderstorm complex.  You can see how strong it is and how big it is in relation to Minnesota.  Remember this is not radar but rather clouds.  Again - click the image for a full view of the satellite image.  These storms are not expected to impact our region - perhaps an increase in some cloud cover on Tuesday - especially over the northern half of our region (closer to Farmington and St Louis region).

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Let's take a look at this graphic - this graphic was put together by Dr. Greg Forbes - it shows you the average number of tornadoes per month.  You can see that May and June are normally quite active.  We like to remind everyone that "severe weather" doesn't have a season in our region. We have experienced severe storms in all 12 months of the year.

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Did you know that you can now check the latest current conditions - temperatures/wind speed/dew points and more - we have hundreds of new graphics available to you!  Click Here

This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer

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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, and western Kentucky - for your local town - click here
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Tuesday: Some high clouds moving in from the west - otherwise a mix of sun and clouds.  Hot and humid.  Well above normal temperatures.

Highs:  in the lower 90s | Wind: southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Normal highs are around 78 degrees.

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Tuesday night:  Partly cloudy - a stray shower or storm can't be ruled out over our northern counties.   Well above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 69 degrees  |  Wind: southerly winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 58 degrees.

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Wednesday:  More sun than clouds.  A chance for a scattered thunderstorm - especially over the northern half of the area   Hot and humid.  Well above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 92 degrees  | Wind: south winds at 10-15 mph. A higher gust possible on area lakes.  Normal highs are around 78 degrees.

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Wednesday night: A few clouds.  Well above normal temperatures.

Lows: around 70 degrees  |  Wind: South winds at 10 mph. Normal lows are around 58 degrees..

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Thursday:  Partly sunny.  Hot and humid.  Well above normal temperatures.

Highs:  around 92-94 degrees  | Wind: southerly winds at 10-15.  Normal highs are around 78 degrees.

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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here

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Did you know that the McCracken County Office of Emergency Management also now has a Facebook?  You can view it here
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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River Stages - Click Here

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Also our new forecast page is finished!  Just click the link below to see all of our Weather Observatory graphics - from the severe weather outlook to lake and river stages - extended outlooks - monthly outlooks - satellite - and more!.

Weather Observatory Graphics and Forecast Page

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Remember you can now view all of the temperature graphics - and more - by clicking here

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Below image - Low temperatures for Tuesday morning

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Below image - High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon

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Below image - High temperatures for Wednesday afternoon

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How much above normal will high temperatures be on Tuesday?  Several degrees!  The map below shows you the departure from normal highs (normal highs are around 78-80 degrees).  For example if the normal high is 80 degrees and the actual high is 90 degrees then we would be 10 degrees above normal.  So - the map below is showing you how much above normal high temperatures should be on Tuesday.

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Let's also take a look (the map below) at the expected heat index for Tuesday afternoon.  I sure hate to bring these maps out so soon in the season.  But, it does appear that middle to upper 90s will be possible (heat index) over our region on Tuesday.  Remember - the heat index is what the temperature feels like to your body.  

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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow... 

Tuesday: No severe weather is anticipated.  
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Tuesday night: No severe weather is anticipated. 
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Wednesday:  No severe weather is anticipated. 

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Wednesday Night:  No severe weather is anticipated.

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Thursday:  No severe weather is anticipated.
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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You can now view the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts!  Maps are available by clicking here. 

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1.  Warm weather to continue into the weekend.
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Here is a map showing anomalies for this Friday - basically this shows areas where temperatures are expected to be above or below normal - this is the GFS model.  The heat will continue - at least into the short term.  Click image for full view.
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Summer Thoughts:

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We have almost made it to meteorological summer - what is meteorological summer?   Meteorologists break the seasons down into three month periods - meteorological summer runs from June through August.

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So with that in mind - let's take a look at some of my thoughts (and the thoughts of a few others) for the upcoming summer pattern.  

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One thing I am watching for is where the high pressure ridge (in the summer the high pressure ridge to our south means sinking air - in the summer these type of high pressure systems produce hot conditions over our region) sets up this summer.  If it sets up near our region then we can expect warm/hot and dry conditions.  However if it sets up far enough to our south or southwest then we would be in the ring of fire region.  
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What is the ring of fire?  The ring of fire is an area of showers and thunderstorms that normally occur along the edge of the big high pressure ridge.  That is because the jet stream goes around the area of high pressure.  The jet stream is where we normally find active weather.  Winds - high aloft - strong winds.  These stronger winds help support thunderstorm complexes.

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I have made a map below - the L's represent areas of low pressure - the big H would be the summer high pressure "heat ridge" that normally sets up shop somewhere near our region.  Imagine the heat ridge as a clock - moving storms systems around the edge of the clock - normally that is called the ring of fire.  The ring of fire would be storms/thunderstorms/squall lines that rotate around the edge of the area of high pressure.

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It is in these areas - the thunderstorm areas - that can receive above normal rainfall and severe weather.  Last year that ring of fire pummeled Iowa and parts of Illinois and Indiana with significant rain and flooding.

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Right now it appears that the first half of June may very well provide a decent opportunity for warmer than normal conditions before we move towards a pattern more conducive for more frequent cold fronts.  This would be more towards the middle/latter half of June into July.
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There is already hints of a trough in the east as early as the middle of next week - a trough would bring cooler than normal temperatures to at least portions of the Ohio Valley and northeast.  So - we are already going to be keeping an eye on the pattern in the short range.  But, again - not before some very warm temperatures during the upcoming week.  

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Temperatures will be anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal over our region during the coming days. 

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That isn't to say we won't have some active weather in the coming 2 week period.  It does appear we have at least a chance for some active storms as we move into next week (week of the 5th).  I am watching a couple of systems that could spark showers and thunderstorms during that time period.

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Also during the summer months we have to start thinking about mesoscale thunderstorm complexes.
These are large thunderstorm areas that form at night and normally move towards the east/southeast.  They can bring heavy rain and high winds - even tornadoes.  Again - these complexes of storms usually form on the outer edge of the high pressure ridge.  So where the high pressure ridge sets up this summer will be important as far as our sensible weather (what is actually happening in our local counties).

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Here is a satellite image of a mesoscale thunderstorm complex (this isn't current).
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If the summer forecast pans out as expected then we might see quite a few of these systems push through portions of Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky. Watch for me posting satellite images of the mesoscale complexes as they form in the coming weeks.

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The potential for some damaging squall line - high wind events is definitely on the map - as they say. 
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Anytime you have strong cold fronts busting through the heat you can experience thunderstorms with the energy to produce widespread wind damage events.  Something I will definitely be watching in the coming weeks.  The late 1970s and early 1980s brought several of those events to our region.

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Something else to keep in mind - as we look at the current pattern - is the presence of a significant drought to our southwest - covering portions of Texas and Oklahoma.  This is the same drought that impacted our region last year.  In contrast, we find our region under flooded conditions with above normal rainfall over the last 60 days.  

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Here is the moisture anomaly map - feast or famine - as I like to say!

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A tale of two extremes.  Remember, I have said for several years now, that we are in a 1930s type pattern - extremes are to be expected and this is nothing new.  I call it feast or famine.  Too much rain - not enough rain - too hot - too cold.  Nothing new under the sun - this is a typical cycle that our region experiences from time to time. 
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Here are some maps showing you the extreme wet (blue areas) and extreme dry (red areas) covering portions of our region.  I have circled the wet area with a green line and the drought/dry areas with a red line.  See how close together they are?  Feast or famine!  Take your pick.

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The map above shows you the extreme drought impacting parts of the Kansas/Oklahoma/New Mexico/Arizona/Texas region and then that drought extends along the Gulf of Mexico.  These areas are in desperate need of rain.  A natural disaster in itself.

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Here is the official drought forecast from NOAA.  NOAA is the organization that issues forecasts as to whether a drought is expected to worsen or improve.  You can see that they are officially calling for some improvement.  Let's hope that is the case.  Click the image for real size view.

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How much precipitation is needed to end the drought?  Quite a bit in some areas - 10-17 inches!  Tropical systems could certainly bring that much and more.  One part of the forecast to keep an eye on in the coming months - tropical activity.  Which could even start a bit earlier than usual this season.
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We also have to think about hurricane season - which begins this week.  As we have learned over the years - hurricanes don't only impact the coastal regions.  Our region experienced a widespread wind event from the remnants of Hurricane Ike.  Winds of 50-90 mph were reported over much of the Paducah forecast area.  The remnants of Ike, as many of you will remember, caused widespread power outages and wind damage.  

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We have also witnessed some of the areas most intense flash flooding (remember Elena in 1985 in Paducah, Kentucky - flooding killed several children and caused major damage to homes and businesses).  Many times tropical systems will slow down and meander in and near our region.  This can cause significant rainfall totals.  Not to mention isolated tornadoes from the spinning arms of tropical system.  There is no way to forecast whether one of these events will happen from year to year.  It is simply something to be mindful of as push into hurricane season.

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I found this chart on-line.  This indicates the number of named storms that can be expected this year.  Numbers are meaningless - in reality.  If one major hurricane, like Hurricane Katrina or Andrew, hits the United States then it was a bad hurricane season.  If there are 20 named storms and all of them stay off-shore then does anyone really care (tree falling in the forecast vs a tree falling on your home)? 
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Reality vs sensible weather sometimes do not match up.  Sensible weather is what YOU care about.

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It is impossible for forecasters to know how many hurricanes will actually hit the United States this year.  If someone tells you New Orleans or New York is going to be hit by a hurricane this season then they are making it up - it is simply impossible for meteorologists to know more than a few days in advance. 

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Bottom line for hurricane season - as ALL hurricane seasons - those along the coastlines should stay updated on tropical forecasts and listen to emergency management officials as this season unfolds.  The upcoming tropical season has the potential to produce some significant hurricanes.  National Hurricane Season web-site.
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So - there is a lot to consider in the coming months.  Whether we actually end up with the cooler than normal temperatures in July and August (as expected) or a drought situation with hotter than normal conditions.  Inquiring minds want to know!

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Tough call - and keep in mind that long range forecasting is not an exact science.  

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Most of the analog years point towards cooler than normal conditions for July and August - which would tend to also mean normal to above normal precipitation.  We may have a warm start - over the next few weeks - before things level out a bit.  I am not a fan of the heat and humidity - so I am rooting for the cooler solutions to verify.  Others of you may actually like the heat and humidity.  I guess the battle lines are drawn!
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I should note that there are significant disagreement among national forecasters in how the summer plays out - with some calling for extreme heat (like the 1988 episode) and others calling for a virtual year without a summer for the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.  Obviously both can't be correct.  Thus the fun of long range forecasting.

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One big concern I have concerning the below normal temperature potential is the extreme drought to our southwest.  Never like to see drought knocking on the door - even though we have been wet.  In this type of extreme pattern (as we have seen) we can go from flooding rains to no rain at all - within weeks.  So - this is definitely in the back of my mind as we move forward into summer.

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Here is the official outlook for temperatures - June into August.  You can see that our region has been placed in the below normal temperature range.  Remember - this is for all three months averaged out.  There will certainly be extremes along the way.  And note the warmer than normal temperatures are not far away.
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But, I will say this, in a year that has been full of surprises and extremes - one would be wise to stay tuned to future changes in the forecast!   We may have a number of tropical systems to track - along with the mesoscale thunderstorm complexes. 

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Bottom Line...

I am in the camp that the summer will bring (more often than not) below normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation.  The summer may have an early kick-off with above normal temperatures (by summer I am talking June through August).

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Remember that weather is made up of extremes and we are in an extreme climate pattern.  This means that we may see the pendulum swing from much above normal temperatures to much below normal temperatures - similar to what we have been experiencing over the last year.

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Several squall line events could produce widespread wind damage potential - winds greater than 80 mph.  We will also have to monitor the potential for slow moving thunderstorm complexes that could produce pockets of flash flooding.  Those meso-scale complexes that form in the summer can produce some locally heavy rain

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We will be watching La Nina as she dies away in the Pacific - we will enter a more neutral Enso pattern - neither La Nina or El Nina - at least for the short term.  Then we will have to see if La Nina returns towards fall and winter of 2011-2011.

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We will have to keep a close eye on the tropics as systems move into the Gulf of Mexico.  It is possible that several significant tropical systems could cause problems for our neighboring states.  Above normal temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico is a recipe for trouble.

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You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson

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Have you joined the email list?  I send out emails 2-4 days in advance of severe weather.  Basically this is a "heads up" email.  If you would like to subscribe then click here.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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