April 6th-8th: Holiday weekend outlook

April 6th-8th - 2012

Friday evening into Sunday update (next update will be on Monday - because of the holiday weekend)
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Friday night:  Mostly clear skies and a bit chilly.  Could be some light frost in some favored cold spots.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle to upper 30s  |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Wind:  Nearly calm winds  
Precipitation probability - 0%   | Rainfall totals:  0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday:  Sunny during the morning hours - then increasing cloudiness during the afternoon.
Near normal temperatures
Highs:  around 65-67 degrees.  | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Wind: East winds at 10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0%  Rainfall totals:   0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high

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Saturday night:  Mostly cloudy skies - a chance for a shower or thunderstorm - scattered at best.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 40s and lower 50s |  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Wind:  West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 30%  Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday:  Some morning clouds should give way to sunshine.  
Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures
Highs:  around 67-70 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Wind: Northerly at 5-15 mph  
Precipitation probability - 20% before 9 am  Rainfall totals:  0" 
Confidence in this forecast is high 
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No major concerns

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No major concerns.

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The wild card in the forecast is Friday night low temperatures - cold compared to recent weeks.  Saturday morning will bring some 30s into the region.


The second wild card will be a small chance for showers along the cold front on Saturday night and early Sunday morning - better chance over our western counties in southeast Missouri vs the eastern counties.  This cold front will be moisture starved.  Not a lot of moisture to work with.
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No major changes in this update!

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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather

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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado.  More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here

For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here 
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Friday night:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Friday night: 
Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms?  No
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Saturday night :
 
Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Saturday night:  Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a chance for a thunderstorm.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.  No snow or ice.
Sunday: 
Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms?  No

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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?  
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No  
Sunday - No
Monday - No 
Tuesday - No 
Wednesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here  Alternative link - click here
 


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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here

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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning  map - click here.



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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site.  For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.




This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES:  
Welcome to the holiday weekend - I know many of you are off work and will be trying to enjoy the weekend.


I have good news in the weather department :) - I don't see any major problems for the next few days.  It will be a bit on the chilly side on Saturday morning with lows into the 30s!  


High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be more seasonable than recent weeks.  It might actually feel more like spring vs summer.


There will be a cold front moving through our region on Saturday night and Sunday - this means there will be a chance for a few showers (during the overnight hours on Saturday).  The front has very little moisture to work with.  That means it will be difficult for it to produce much in the way of precipitation over our local region.  Perhaps the best chance of rain will be over the western counties.


Once the front exits on Sunday morning - we should be left with sunshine.  Temperatures on Sunday should warm into the upper 60s - perhaps even 70 in a few locations.


Sunday night will be dry - Monday will be dry!


I will not be updating the blog this weekend - I will update the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page on Friday night - Saturday morning - Sunday morning.  If there are any changes in the forecast then I will post them there.  I honestly don't expect any surprises.



We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.

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Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.  Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.


NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY - THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.  Check the link above (where it says CLICK HERE) for the latest precipitation forecast maps.

I will update the maps here on the blog on Monday again.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here.  
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.



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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in 

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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 9th-14th
Event: Perhaps a shot at cooler air
Severe Risk: 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A chance for a shot at cooler temperatures chances.
Confidence in my forecast:  Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States 
Severe Risk:  Yes - possible event. 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.  Possible cold air shots after storm passes.
Confidence in my forecastLow   

Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages  Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk:  Yes - possible 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low

Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk:  Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low  

Date Range:  May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk:  Yes - possible event. 
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast.  Low

More information on the long range cycle 
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention).  I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible.  Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here

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1.  I am going to take the next couple of days off from the blog - going to enjoy the holiday weekend.  I know we are going to be quite busy once we push towards late next week into the following few weeks.  A return to active weather appears almost certain.

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Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here

Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.  I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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