Sunday night into Monday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wind: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Remainder of Sunday afternoon: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: in the 55-60 degree rangeBelow normal temperatures
Wind: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
Sunday night: Clearing skies and cold. Frost possible in areas protected from the wind. Protect sensitive plants.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 32-38 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday: Partly sunny and cool. Windy at times. A slight chance for an afternoon shower - very isolated.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 55-60 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: North/northwest winds at 10-25 mph and gusty
Precipitation probability - 10% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Monday night: A few clouds early in the evening - then clearing. Cool.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Tuesday: Mostly sunny - a few high clouds possible late in the day.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 65-70 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.Wind: West/northwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few thunderstorms this afternoon (Sunday) may produce lightning and gusty winds.
There is some concern for just how low temperatures will go tonight - Sunday night. I am thinking in the 32-38 degree range. This could cause some problems for sensitive plants. Winds should be strong enough to prevent widespread frost - however, some frost will likely occur in areas protected from the wind.
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If you have sensitive plants then monitor temperatures on Sunday night or take precautionary measures to protect them in the event the temperature does fall to freezing. Widespread frost should not be a major problem because of wind speeds - however, some frost will be possible in protected areas where the wind doesn't reach or blow.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Monday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Monday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - Monitoring
Thursday - No
Friday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Chilly weather the next couple of days for our region - below normal temperatures.
There is some disagreement on just how low temperatures will fall tonight over the region. If you have sensitive plants then you might consider protecting them if you live in a favored cold spot. I would not be surprised to see some lower to middle 30s over some of our counties.
I placed the lows at 32-38 in the Sunday night time frame - the coldest part of the night would likely be from 3 am through 7 am.
This cool weather is all in response to a large storm system moving up the east coast. We are on the northwest side of this system. That means we are in northwest flow - winds are delivering cooler air from the northwest. This is a big system for the east coast - had this happened back in winter then you would likely be looking at near blizzard conditions in some areas. As is there will be some snow across areas of the northeast into Canada.
Visible satellite this afternoon shows the big - wound up storm system along the east coast. You can see some clouds over our region (Sunday afternoon) - these clouds were producing a few showers (cold showers!).
Here is the water vapor image of the storm - I also placed the equal lines of pressure on the map. You can see the storm is wound up nicely.
Here is the water vapor image with radar overlay on top - lot of precipitation to our east.
Monday and Tuesday will bring breezy conditions - cool.
Here are the low and high temperature forecasts - the first map is for Monday morning lows. Keep in mind that some spots will be colder than the numbers shown here.
Monday afternoon high temperatures - still on the cool side
Tuesday morning lows - map below
Tuesday afternoon high temperatures - map below
Let's take a look at the departures for Monday and Tuesday. These two maps show you how many degrees above or below normal we will be on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. You can see that Monday will bring the biggest departures. We moderate a little bit on Tuesday - so it won't be quite as cool on Tuesday.
Here is the 500mb trough - this shows the jet-stream - see the big trough over our region? The northwest flow - bringing in cooler air. Image is from www.wright-weather.com
Here is the future-cast radar from the high resolution WRF - check out the snowstorm expected well to our northeast! Portions of the northeast are under winter storm warnings.
The first image is for 3 PM Sunday - second image is for the 4 am on Monday morning and the last image is around 7 pm on Monday night. All images are from www.wright-weather.com
Click images for the full view size
There could be a few showers pop-up on Monday afternoon - light and scattered. Widely scattered.
See the extended discussion below for the Wednesday through Friday forecast - unsettled weather likely.
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HEADLINES: Chilly weather the next couple of days for our region - below normal temperatures.
There is some disagreement on just how low temperatures will fall tonight over the region. If you have sensitive plants then you might consider protecting them if you live in a favored cold spot. I would not be surprised to see some lower to middle 30s over some of our counties.
I placed the lows at 32-38 in the Sunday night time frame - the coldest part of the night would likely be from 3 am through 7 am.
This cool weather is all in response to a large storm system moving up the east coast. We are on the northwest side of this system. That means we are in northwest flow - winds are delivering cooler air from the northwest. This is a big system for the east coast - had this happened back in winter then you would likely be looking at near blizzard conditions in some areas. As is there will be some snow across areas of the northeast into Canada.
Visible satellite this afternoon shows the big - wound up storm system along the east coast. You can see some clouds over our region (Sunday afternoon) - these clouds were producing a few showers (cold showers!).
Here is the water vapor image of the storm - I also placed the equal lines of pressure on the map. You can see the storm is wound up nicely.
Here is the water vapor image with radar overlay on top - lot of precipitation to our east.
Monday and Tuesday will bring breezy conditions - cool.
Here are the low and high temperature forecasts - the first map is for Monday morning lows. Keep in mind that some spots will be colder than the numbers shown here.
Tuesday morning lows - map below
Let's take a look at the departures for Monday and Tuesday. These two maps show you how many degrees above or below normal we will be on Monday and Tuesday afternoon. You can see that Monday will bring the biggest departures. We moderate a little bit on Tuesday - so it won't be quite as cool on Tuesday.
The first image is for 3 PM Sunday - second image is for the 4 am on Monday morning and the last image is around 7 pm on Monday night. All images are from www.wright-weather.com
Click images for the full view size
There could be a few showers pop-up on Monday afternoon - light and scattered. Widely scattered.
See the extended discussion below for the Wednesday through Friday forecast - unsettled weather likely.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Small chances
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium Date Range: April 29th-May 4th
Event: Possible active weather.
Severe Risk: Potential
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The extended forecast will center around a storm system that will develop in the central United States towards the middle of the week.
An area of low pressure with an associated warm/cold front will move towards our region on Wednesday and Thursday - some of the current data stalls this front out in or near our region. If this happens then precipitation chances could linger into the weekend or even beyond.
Right now it appears there will at least be a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. A few of the storms could be on the heavy side - widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I will monitor and update.
Longer range models indicate an unsettled pattern into the first part of May - this means a few chances for showers and thunderstorms. We need the rain - our region continues to experience mostly dry conditions.
Here are the latest anomaly maps - you can see we have a precipitation deficit in our local counties
Here is the latest 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day outlook for temperatures - odds favor temperatures going normal to above normal (the dates are at the top of the map - this does not include our current cool snap)
The orange and red areas on the map mean above normal temperatures are favored. The blue areas are where cooler than normal temperatures are expected or favored. Normal lows in our region for this time of the year are in the upper 40s and normal highs are around 70 degrees.
An area of low pressure with an associated warm/cold front will move towards our region on Wednesday and Thursday - some of the current data stalls this front out in or near our region. If this happens then precipitation chances could linger into the weekend or even beyond.
Right now it appears there will at least be a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. A few of the storms could be on the heavy side - widespread severe weather is not anticipated. I will monitor and update.
Longer range models indicate an unsettled pattern into the first part of May - this means a few chances for showers and thunderstorms. We need the rain - our region continues to experience mostly dry conditions.
Here are the latest anomaly maps - you can see we have a precipitation deficit in our local counties
Here is the latest 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day outlook for temperatures - odds favor temperatures going normal to above normal (the dates are at the top of the map - this does not include our current cool snap)
The orange and red areas on the map mean above normal temperatures are favored. The blue areas are where cooler than normal temperatures are expected or favored. Normal lows in our region for this time of the year are in the upper 40s and normal highs are around 70 degrees.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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