Saturday night into Sunday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy and mild.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 25 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm and windy at times.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 78-84 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-25 mph with gusts above 30 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible - a few storms could be on the strong side. To view radars - click here To view watches and warnings - click here
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph
Precipitation probability - 90% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" - thunderstorms can produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: A chance for some early morning showers and thunderstorms - then becoming partly cloudy.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 70-74 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.Wind: West and southwest at 5-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% before 9 am | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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The main concern will be gusty winds on Sunday into Sunday night - boaters use caution.
The second concern will be thunderstorms on Sunday night into early Monday morning. A few of the storms could produce severe weather - damaging winds and hail being the primary concern. Although an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Monitor for updates.
To view radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
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Boaters use caution on area lakes.
Monitor weather conditions on Sunday night into Monday morning - possibly a few severe storms.
To view radars - click here
To view watches and warnings - click here
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The wild card in this forecast will be whether or not a few storms will be severe on Sunday night. This will need to be monitored.
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night : A few storms could become severe. Monitor for updates..
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Monday: A few storms could be severe before 7 am - monitor for updates.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Sunday night - possible - monitor for updates
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Sunday night - possible - monitor for updates
Monday - Yes - mainly before 7 am - monitor for updates
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
Thursday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: The first concern for this forecast package is going to be gusty winds on Sunday into Sunday night - area boaters should use a bit more care. Winds will be out of the south at speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
The next concern will be showers and thunderstorms that will develop to our west on Sunday and Sunday afternoon - this area of showers and thunderstorms will push east/northeast during the overnight hours on Sunday.
Some of the storms on Sunday night could produce severe weather. There is still some uncertainty on the extent of the instability on Sunday night and Monday morning. Wind fields will be strong and sufficient enough to raise some concerns for severe weather.
Right now the main concern appears to be damaging winds and hail - I can't rule out isolated tornadoes.
Right now I am thinking that the main concern will be from 5 pm through 4 am - first starting over eastern Missouri and northeast Arkansas and then spreading east into Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and eventually Indiana.
The best instability may be over the western half of the region - perhaps along and west of the Mississippi River. A smaller risk will exist to the east of the Mississippi River.
Please monitor for updates as we push forward into the Sunday night and early Monday morning time frame.
The monitor weather radars - click here
To monitor watches and severe weather warnings - click here
The latest day 1 severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center - click here
Precipitation will come to an end on early Monday morning - by Monday afternoon we should be drying out with gusty westerly winds.
A few maps for you - first the high temperature map for Sunday - it will be quite warm
The Severe Weather Outlook - this first map (below) is for tonight (Saturday) and early Sunday morning - you can see the large high risk zone well to our west (the pink zone). We are in the general thunderstorm area - the yellow zone. I don't expect much in the way of activity through Sunday morning - a couple of showers and storms have occasionally popped up on radar today (Saturday) - but they have not been severe in nature.
Now - this map below is for our region on Sunday and Sunday night - again I believe the greatest risk will occur late late in the afternoon and even more likely during the overnight hours on Sunday into early Monday morning.
Right now the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large slight risk zone - the orange colored area. That means severe weather is likely but should be scattered in nature. The yellow area is the general thunderstorm area - thunderstorms that should remain below severe limits.
(The red zone is a moderate risk - that is the greatest risk zone on Sunday - moderate risk means that severe weather is likely to be even more widespread in nature)
I would not get too hung up on the exact outline of the slight risk because I believe it may be expanded a bit. We will just have to wait and see.
Bottom line - some severe storms are possible in our region on Sunday evening into the wee hours of the morning on Monday. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible in our region. Monitor for updates and possible watches and warnings.
Let's look at a couple of high resolution weather models - models give forecasters a general idea of how and where thunderstorms may form - I will give you two model samples. These images are from my favorite model site - www.wright-weather.com.
HEADLINES: The first concern for this forecast package is going to be gusty winds on Sunday into Sunday night - area boaters should use a bit more care. Winds will be out of the south at speeds of 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph.
The next concern will be showers and thunderstorms that will develop to our west on Sunday and Sunday afternoon - this area of showers and thunderstorms will push east/northeast during the overnight hours on Sunday.
Some of the storms on Sunday night could produce severe weather. There is still some uncertainty on the extent of the instability on Sunday night and Monday morning. Wind fields will be strong and sufficient enough to raise some concerns for severe weather.
Right now the main concern appears to be damaging winds and hail - I can't rule out isolated tornadoes.
Right now I am thinking that the main concern will be from 5 pm through 4 am - first starting over eastern Missouri and northeast Arkansas and then spreading east into Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and eventually Indiana.
The best instability may be over the western half of the region - perhaps along and west of the Mississippi River. A smaller risk will exist to the east of the Mississippi River.
Please monitor for updates as we push forward into the Sunday night and early Monday morning time frame.
The monitor weather radars - click here
To monitor watches and severe weather warnings - click here
The latest day 1 severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center - click here
Precipitation will come to an end on early Monday morning - by Monday afternoon we should be drying out with gusty westerly winds.
A few maps for you - first the high temperature map for Sunday - it will be quite warm
The Severe Weather Outlook - this first map (below) is for tonight (Saturday) and early Sunday morning - you can see the large high risk zone well to our west (the pink zone). We are in the general thunderstorm area - the yellow zone. I don't expect much in the way of activity through Sunday morning - a couple of showers and storms have occasionally popped up on radar today (Saturday) - but they have not been severe in nature.
Right now the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a large slight risk zone - the orange colored area. That means severe weather is likely but should be scattered in nature. The yellow area is the general thunderstorm area - thunderstorms that should remain below severe limits.
(The red zone is a moderate risk - that is the greatest risk zone on Sunday - moderate risk means that severe weather is likely to be even more widespread in nature)
I would not get too hung up on the exact outline of the slight risk because I believe it may be expanded a bit. We will just have to wait and see.
Bottom line - some severe storms are possible in our region on Sunday evening into the wee hours of the morning on Monday. Large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes will be possible in our region. Monitor for updates and possible watches and warnings.
This first model shows a line of thunderstorms forming Sunday evening to our west and then slowly moving east during the overnight hours.
This first image is at 11 PM - you can see the line of storms on future-cast radar
This next image is for 2 AM on Monday morning (late Sunday night)
This next image is for the 4 AM time frame on Monday morning
Now - these next few images are another computer model - it shows the line pushing in earlier in the evening vs the one above - so keep this in mind. Again - the biggest threat for storms will probably be from early evening on Sunday through the 4 am time frame on Monday morning - the exact timing will need to be fine tuned on Sunday afternoon/evening.
This first image is around 9 PM on Sunday evening - you can see the line of storms in our region - pushing eastward. The second image is around 11 pm Sunday evening - future-cast radar.
Bottom line...
A line of showers and thunderstorms will form (or be ongoing) across portions of Illinois, Missouri, Arkansas, and Texas during the afternoon hours on Sunday - this line of storms will push eastward/northeastward into and through our local counties.
A few of the thunderstorms could produce large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightning, locally heavy rain, and tornadoes.
The highest risk zone in our local region may be over eastern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas - the line should be in a weakening state as it pushes into southern Illinois and western Kentucky - western Tennessee and eventually Indiana.
However, I do believe everyone should monitor updates - even if the line is weakening as it pushes east.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates. Possible cold air shots after storm passes.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. All of the focus on this update has been on the severe weather threat - the next chance for thunderstorms may arrive around next Thursday-Saturday.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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