Thursday evening into Friday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy. Cooler. A chance for an evening shower or thunderstorm - mainly in Kentucky and Tennessee - a few storms could be severe. Latest watches and warnings - click here
Near normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 40s and lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" in areas that receive rain - locally higher
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Partly cloudy with a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 70 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.Near normal temperatures
Wind: East winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms Confidence in this forecast is high
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Friday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s temperatures will vary quite a bit over the region as a whole because of the frontal system near our local counties | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: Southerly winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Saturday: Partly cloudy - warm - a chance for thunderstorms - a few storms could be on the heavy side.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A chance for heavy storms this evening near the KY/TN border counties. A few severe.
The next shot at thunderstorms for most of the area will be on Friday and again Saturday.
BOTTOM LINE - don't cancel any plans over the coming days - simply be weather aware and check the latest forecast and radars if you have outdoor plans!
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Monitor radars if you have outdoor events this evening and on Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible.
BOTTOM LINE - don't cancel any plans over the coming days - simply be weather aware and check the latest forecast and radars if you have outdoor plans!
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Once again the wild card is going to be just how widespread precipitation will be on both Friday and Saturday. We have had several rounds of precipitation over the last couple of days - some areas did not pick up much in the way of measurable precipitation. It does appear we have a better chance for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday and Saturday - most likely the best chance of the whole week.
BOTTOM LINE - don't cancel any plans over the coming days - simply be weather aware and check the latest forecast and radars if you have outdoor plans!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Thursday night: Severe risk for southeastern counties - near KY/TN border - No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Thursday night: Severe risk for southeastern counties - near KY/TN border - No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Friday: Small risk for a severe thunderstorm.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Saturday: A few storms could be severe.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Southeastern counties
Friday - No
Friday night - No
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Southeastern counties
Friday - No
Friday night - No
Saturday - Possible
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A band of severe thunderstorms pushed through portions of our region late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning - mainly impacting parts of southeast Illinois into southern Indiana and then down into parts of Kentucky.
Most areas remained dry. If you have not received any rain over the last 48 hours - don't shoot the messenger. I told you it would be a complicated forecast this week with many people seeing no rain at all - while others pick up quite a bit! That is exactly how it has played out.
Some of us have only picked up enough precipitation to pepper the car with raindrops - me being one of them! We need more rain.
This evening will be dry over most of the area - the exception will be along the KY/TN border counties where a band of heavy storms will develop and push southward. A few of the storms will be severe with hail and gusty winds. Latest watches and warnings - click here
There will be another chance for rain/storms on Friday and Saturday - hopefully more of us pick up some much needed rain.
Can't 100% rule out a severe thunderstorm - especially on Saturday. Right now it does not look like widespread severe weather. I will monitor, as always.
Unsettled weather will continue into next week with several disturbances moving through the flow. This will mean additional rain chances and thunderstorm chances.
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HEADLINES: A band of severe thunderstorms pushed through portions of our region late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning - mainly impacting parts of southeast Illinois into southern Indiana and then down into parts of Kentucky.
Most areas remained dry. If you have not received any rain over the last 48 hours - don't shoot the messenger. I told you it would be a complicated forecast this week with many people seeing no rain at all - while others pick up quite a bit! That is exactly how it has played out.
Some of us have only picked up enough precipitation to pepper the car with raindrops - me being one of them! We need more rain.
This evening will be dry over most of the area - the exception will be along the KY/TN border counties where a band of heavy storms will develop and push southward. A few of the storms will be severe with hail and gusty winds. Latest watches and warnings - click here
There will be another chance for rain/storms on Friday and Saturday - hopefully more of us pick up some much needed rain.
Can't 100% rule out a severe thunderstorm - especially on Saturday. Right now it does not look like widespread severe weather. I will monitor, as always.
Unsettled weather will continue into next week with several disturbances moving through the flow. This will mean additional rain chances and thunderstorm chances.
Let's take a look at the WIDE range of temperatures over the coming day - can you find the front? Temperatures will vary quite a bit in the coming days - northern areas much cooler than southern areas. The front will be the dividing line.
In order - first will be Thursday night lows - then Friday highs - then Friday night lows - then Saturday highs - then Saturday night low - then Sunday high temperatures!
Here are three videos put together by the Huntsville, NWS Office concerning last years super tornado outbreak. This gives you a good idea as to what the NWS goes through during an outbreak.
Video links below - in order
Part 1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9RdStoAl8c&feature=channel&list=UL
Part 2
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c451AD82MQ4&feature=channel&list=UL
Part 3
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcLdkS2JMW0&feature=channel&list=UL
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Small chances
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The extended forecast looks unsettled with a similar pattern continuing right on into next week - several on/off rain chances - thunderstorm chances. Hopefully we all start picking up some much needed rain.
Feast or famine.
Feast or famine.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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