Tuesday night and Wednesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mild for early April. To view radars - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower to middle 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" in areas that experience rain. Isolated thunderstorms can always produce higher rainfall totals. Not everyone will pick up rain tonight.
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds - an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms as the afternoon wears on. Mild. To view radars - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 72-78 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% especially late in the day | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" in areas that pick up rain
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. To view radars - click here.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-0.75"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southwest at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 80% | Rainfall totals: 0.50"-0.75"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Thursday: Cloudy and not as warm - scattered rain and rumbles of thunder possible.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 60-65 degrees - temps may vary a bit across the area (this will depend on cloud cover and precipitation) | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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There will be a chance for a few strong (isolated severe storms) Tuesday afternoon and evening. Large hail would be the main concern along with a few high wind reports. This is a marginal risk - meaning widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday - a few storms could produce heavy rain and even a report or two of hail. The severe weather risk is small. Isolated. The bigger concern will be lightning - for any outdoor events. Monitor radars. The best chance for showers/storms will be later in the afternoon into the overnight hours.
Thunderstorms will also be possible into Thursday - lightning is always a concern for outdoor events.
Monitor local radars if you have outdoor events planned. To view radars - click here.
Click here for the latest watch and warning map.
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If you have outdoor events you will want to monitor the weather over the next few days - lightning will be possible along with an isolated severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon and evening (Tuesday).
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Temperatures on Thursday may be the wild card on this forecast - some of the data shows temperatures in the 50s during the afternoon over parts of our area - warmer towards KY/TN line
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Updated cloud cover on Wednesday morning
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: An isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible in the area. Hail would be the primary concern along with gusty winds. Lightning is, of course, always a concern in thunderstorms. click here for the latest watch and warning map.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday night: An isolated severe thunderstorm will be possible in the area. Hail would be the primary concern along with gusty winds. Lightning is, of course, always a concern in thunderstorms. click here for the latest watch and warning map.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated - if there is enough instability then I can't 100% rule out an isolated severe storm - hail being the main concern.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Wednesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky? Remember a watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather and you should monitor updates - a WARNING means to take action.
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Remainder of this afternoon/Tonight - A low chance for a severe thunderstorm watch - click here for the latest watch and warning map.
Wednesday - Less than 5% chance for a severe weather watch.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky? Remember a watch means conditions are favorable for severe weather and you should monitor updates - a WARNING means to take action.
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Remainder of this afternoon/Tonight - A low chance for a severe thunderstorm watch - click here for the latest watch and warning map.
Wednesday - Less than 5% chance for a severe weather watch.
Thursday - No
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Another very warm day for our region. Temperatures this afternoon (Tuesday) have risen into the upper 70s and lower 80s over the region. This is well above normal for early April.
Check out these departures for today (Tuesday). This map shows you how much above normal temperatures were on Tuesday - 10-20 degrees!
And it isn't just here - this is the national map showing you the departures. WELL above normal temperatures over a large area of the nation.
A disturbance moving through our region will spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and into the overnight hours. A few of the storms may produce large hail and gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a slight risk for severe weather. Basically that means that a few severe thunderstorms will be possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Click here for the latest watch and warning map.
Remember that thunderstorms produce lightning - if you have outdoor sports events or other events then you should monitor radars. To view radars - click here.
Here is the severe weather outlook for this evening and overnight (Tuesday) - we are in or close to the slight risk zone.
The Wednesday outlook shows the orange (slight risk) for portions of our region. The yellow area just means general thunderstorms are forecast (general means they are not forecast to be severe)
Remember that this map typically changes several times as the SPC updates their outlook.
Let's take a look at the high temperature forecasts for Wednesday into Friday - you can see that temperatures are going to be slightly cooler (but still mostly above normal). This is partly because of clouds and rain chances - also the upper level low pressure area will be moving through our region. This will provide an opportunity for temperatures to be not quite as warm as recent days.
And let's take a look at the departures for Wednesday into Friday - again the departures show you how much above or below normal temperatures will be in our region. Note that the dates are on the top of these images - you can also view these for yourself on the web-site - click here
Thursday may be the coolest day of the week - this will be even more true if we stay socked in with clouds and some precipitation. I may need to lower high temperature forecasts for Thursday.
Some of the computer data shows temperatures into the 30s on Friday morning - I will monitor and update.
One last image - check out the cloud tops down in Texas - these are the severe storms that brought tornadoes to the Dallas area. The deep red colors are high thunderstorm tops
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Another very warm day for our region. Temperatures this afternoon (Tuesday) have risen into the upper 70s and lower 80s over the region. This is well above normal for early April.
Check out these departures for today (Tuesday). This map shows you how much above normal temperatures were on Tuesday - 10-20 degrees!
A disturbance moving through our region will spark some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and into the overnight hours. A few of the storms may produce large hail and gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a slight risk for severe weather. Basically that means that a few severe thunderstorms will be possible but widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
Click here for the latest watch and warning map.
Remember that thunderstorms produce lightning - if you have outdoor sports events or other events then you should monitor radars. To view radars - click here.
Here is the severe weather outlook for this evening and overnight (Tuesday) - we are in or close to the slight risk zone.
Remember that this map typically changes several times as the SPC updates their outlook.
Let's take a look at the high temperature forecasts for Wednesday into Friday - you can see that temperatures are going to be slightly cooler (but still mostly above normal). This is partly because of clouds and rain chances - also the upper level low pressure area will be moving through our region. This will provide an opportunity for temperatures to be not quite as warm as recent days.
Thursday may be the coolest day of the week - this will be even more true if we stay socked in with clouds and some precipitation. I may need to lower high temperature forecasts for Thursday.
Some of the computer data shows temperatures into the 30s on Friday morning - I will monitor and update.
One last image - check out the cloud tops down in Texas - these are the severe storms that brought tornadoes to the Dallas area. The deep red colors are high thunderstorm tops
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 9th-14th
Event: Perhaps a shot at cooler air
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A chance for a shot at cooler temperatures chances.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates. Possible cold air shots.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
More information on the long range cycle .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Friday and Saturday should be mostly dry in our region - Saturday could be the pick day of the week.
Temperatures will be cooler on Friday morning - some data is showing temperatures falling into the 30s - I will monitor and update as more data becomes available and I have a clearer picture of just where temperatures might end up.
A cold front will approach on Sunday. This will bring some clouds and a chance for a few showers. Right now it does not appear that severe weather is likely with the cold front. I will continue to monitor and update.
There is a chance for cooler weather as we move later into next week.
Temperatures will be cooler on Friday morning - some data is showing temperatures falling into the 30s - I will monitor and update as more data becomes available and I have a clearer picture of just where temperatures might end up.
A cold front will approach on Sunday. This will bring some clouds and a chance for a few showers. Right now it does not appear that severe weather is likely with the cold front. I will continue to monitor and update.
There is a chance for cooler weather as we move later into next week.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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