Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25" - thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday afternoon: Partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms scattered in the area. Click here for RADARS
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Highs: Lower 70 south and the 60s the rest of the area - temperatures are going to vary QUITE a
bit in the region - depending on which side of the front you find
yourself - keep that in mind | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.Near normal to below normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
Precipitation probability - 70% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25" - thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is high
Friday night: Partly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms scattered in the area. Click here for RADARS
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s and lower 60s - temperatures are going to vary QUITE a bit in the region - depending on which side of the front you find yourself - keep that in mind | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph - winds becoming stronger towards morning
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25" - - thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. A few storms could produce very large hail on Saturday - stay tuned for updates. Click here for RADARS
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph - gusts to 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" - thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Click here for RADARS
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the middle 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: West at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Sunday: A few clouds - a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms.
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 68-74 degrees - once again temperatures could vary quite a bit in the region | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 73 degrees.Wind: Northeast at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25" - thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall.
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few thunderstorms over the coming days - once again not everyone will pick up rain. Sorry.
Lightning is the main concern this afternoon and evening (Friday). Keep that in mind if you have outdoor plans.
There will also be an enhanced risk for large hail stones on Saturday in our region.
Best advice is not to cancel any plans but to monitor radars from time to time. I am not planning on changing any of my outdoor plans.
Click here for RADARS
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Monitor radars if you have outdoor plans - a few showers and thunderstorms over the coming days. Front will be near our region - meandering around. Lightning is always a concern.
Saturday will bring a hail threat - perhaps some very large hail reports in a few spots. Monitor updates.
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Once again the wild card is the placement of showers and thunderstorms. Some areas picked up large hail and heavy rain on Thursday afternoon and evening - mainly near the KY/TN line. Other areas picked up nothing at all. Feast or famine it seems
There will be on and off chances right on through Sunday for precipitation - don't change any plans but monitor radars from time to time if you are concerned.
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No major changes
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - cloud to ground lightning is a concern for any outdoor activities.
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Friday night: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - cloud to ground lightning is a concern for any outdoor activities.
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Saturday: A few storms could produce very large hail - gusty winds also.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Unlikely
Saturday - Possible - monitor updates
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Unlikely
Saturday - Possible - monitor updates
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Bottom line the next few days - same as the previous 2 or 3 days. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region right on through Sunday. Not everyone will see rain - not everyone has experienced rain this past week. Sorry about that - that is the nature of this pattern.
I know everyone needs rain - check out the drought maps I put together for you below - it is dry!
I can't 100% rule out a stray severe thunderstorm in this pattern - but I do not see a widespread severe weather "outbreak" over the coming days.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk for a few severe storms on Saturday - I would imagine the risk zone will move around a little bit - don't get too hung up on the exact placement of the risk. But - keep in mind a few storms could become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the main concern. There were quite a few hail reports on Thursday in Kentucky and Tennessee.
There could be an enhanced risk for very large hail on Saturday in or near our region - monitor updates.
Here is that placement - again this may move around a bit in future updates. The orange area is the slight risk zone - the yellow means general thunderstorms. Remember that a slight risk means that a few severe thunderstorms will likely occur but perhaps not widespread in nature.
And here are the CAPE values being spit out by the NAM model off of www.wright-weather.com - remember that CAPE basically is energy. You can see we have quite a bit of color in our region. Perhaps some hail from some of the storms on Saturday - gusty winds. Click image for full size view.
Don't cancel any plans this weekend - BUT keep an eye on radar and check weather updates from time to time. The majority of your weekend should be rain free over most of the region. Some areas will get wet and others will remain dry.
Nature of the beast in this pattern and VERY difficult to forecast any one given spot. Scattered showers and thunderstorms don't impact every county.
There will be a WIDE range of temperatures from the northern parts of our region to the southern parts - this is because of the placement of the warm front. Note the swings now if you have outdoor plans - just because it is warm one day does not mean it will be warm the next. We will go back and forth along this frontal boundary - if you are north of the boundary then it will be a bit cooler - if you are south of the boundary then you will be on the warm side.
Here are the low temperatures for Saturday morning followed by the high temperatures for Saturday afternoon - the two images below that are for Sunday
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HEADLINES: Bottom line the next few days - same as the previous 2 or 3 days. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms in the region right on through Sunday. Not everyone will see rain - not everyone has experienced rain this past week. Sorry about that - that is the nature of this pattern.
I know everyone needs rain - check out the drought maps I put together for you below - it is dry!
I can't 100% rule out a stray severe thunderstorm in this pattern - but I do not see a widespread severe weather "outbreak" over the coming days.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a risk for a few severe storms on Saturday - I would imagine the risk zone will move around a little bit - don't get too hung up on the exact placement of the risk. But - keep in mind a few storms could become severe with large hail and gusty winds being the main concern. There were quite a few hail reports on Thursday in Kentucky and Tennessee.
There could be an enhanced risk for very large hail on Saturday in or near our region - monitor updates.
Here is that placement - again this may move around a bit in future updates. The orange area is the slight risk zone - the yellow means general thunderstorms. Remember that a slight risk means that a few severe thunderstorms will likely occur but perhaps not widespread in nature.
Don't cancel any plans this weekend - BUT keep an eye on radar and check weather updates from time to time. The majority of your weekend should be rain free over most of the region. Some areas will get wet and others will remain dry.
Nature of the beast in this pattern and VERY difficult to forecast any one given spot. Scattered showers and thunderstorms don't impact every county.
There will be a WIDE range of temperatures from the northern parts of our region to the southern parts - this is because of the placement of the warm front. Note the swings now if you have outdoor plans - just because it is warm one day does not mean it will be warm the next. We will go back and forth along this frontal boundary - if you are north of the boundary then it will be a bit cooler - if you are south of the boundary then you will be on the warm side.
Here are the low temperatures for Saturday morning followed by the high temperatures for Saturday afternoon - the two images below that are for Sunday
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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