Tuesday night and Wednesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms scattered around - mainly early in the evening over southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and parts of Kentucky.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25" for those who pick up a shower or thunderstorm
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. Windy and warmer
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 78-82 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 30 mph possible
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"-0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy skies with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few thunderstorms could produce gusty winds and hail.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" thunderstorms can always produce locally heavier spot amounts
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: Southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"-0.50" thunderstorms can always produce locally heavier spot amounts
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Thursday: Partly cloudy skies with a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.Wind: West/southwest at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 40% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier if a thunderstorm occurs
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Unsettled pattern of weather the next few days with several chances for thunderstorms. Lightning is the main concern for any outdoor activities. There will be sufficient instability for a few storms to become severe on Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. The main concern would be high winds and hail with the most intense storms. Monitor for updates in the event a few storms become severe.
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Monitor for updates in the event a few storms become severe.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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Updated precipitation chances and temperatures.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local areaClick Here. I also strongly encourage you to FRIEND some of the local media meteorologists - I follow all of them and so should you.
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday: A few storms could become severe - more likely late in the day into Wednesday night. There is low confidence in the severe weather risk - meaning that it is conditional on storms forming. Monitor for updates.
Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
.Wednesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
Wednesday night : A few storms could become severe with high winds and large hail. There is low confidence in the severe weather risk - meaning that it is conditional on storms forming. Monitor for updates.
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: A few storms could become severe with high winds and large hail. Monitor for updates.
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Wednesday - Possible
Wednesday night - Possible
Thursday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Wednesday - Possible
Wednesday night - Possible
Thursday - Low chance
Friday -Monitoring
Saturday - Monitoring
Sunday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: An unsettled pattern will be the rule for the coming days. It will be difficult to forecast for any one given spot as far as who ends up with a thunderstorm and who does.not.
The best chance for a widespread rain/storm event will be late on Wednesday into Wednesday night. There will be plenty of instability and enough lift to trigger showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms could produce severe weather. Monitor for updates on local media and NOAA Weather Radio.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of our region in a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Remember that a slight risk means that severe storms are possible but are not expected to be widespread (the severe weather part) in nature. There is a lower than usual confidence concerning the risk for severe storms on Wednesday. Monitor for updates as more data comes in to analyze.
Shower and storm chances will continue into the weekend as a sharp boundary (see the end of the blog for a map showing that sharp boundary) will find itself placed over our region. The best chance for precipitation will be the northern half of the area - say from near Cape Girardeau to Paducah to Marion, Kentucky northward. Any deviation of the front will cause the precipitation chances to increase or decrease - depending on the placement.
This will make for difficult and challenging forecasting through Saturday.
The orange area on this map indicates where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the slight risk zone - the yellow area indicates general thunderstorms.
This map is for Wednesday - the focus will be on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night for the best chance of storms that could produce hail or high winds. This is a CONDITIONAL risk - that means that there remains some question as to how much storm development there will actually be. The confidence in the forecast is LOW as far as the risk for severe storms. Monitor updates on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night if you are concerned.
Wednesday morning lows will be a bit warmer than recent nights - Wednesday afternoon highs will be warmer, as well!
Bottom line is that we will have on/off rain/storm chances this week - the odds of any one location receiving a lot of rainfall is fairly low. You have a better chance north of the front - northern half of our region vs the southern half of the region.
The most likely time period for the heaviest storms - maybe severe - would be late on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Will monitor Thursday into Saturday.
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HEADLINES: An unsettled pattern will be the rule for the coming days. It will be difficult to forecast for any one given spot as far as who ends up with a thunderstorm and who does.not.
The best chance for a widespread rain/storm event will be late on Wednesday into Wednesday night. There will be plenty of instability and enough lift to trigger showers and thunderstorms. A few of the storms could produce severe weather. Monitor for updates on local media and NOAA Weather Radio.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of our region in a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. Remember that a slight risk means that severe storms are possible but are not expected to be widespread (the severe weather part) in nature. There is a lower than usual confidence concerning the risk for severe storms on Wednesday. Monitor for updates as more data comes in to analyze.
Shower and storm chances will continue into the weekend as a sharp boundary (see the end of the blog for a map showing that sharp boundary) will find itself placed over our region. The best chance for precipitation will be the northern half of the area - say from near Cape Girardeau to Paducah to Marion, Kentucky northward. Any deviation of the front will cause the precipitation chances to increase or decrease - depending on the placement.
This will make for difficult and challenging forecasting through Saturday.
The orange area on this map indicates where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined the slight risk zone - the yellow area indicates general thunderstorms.
This map is for Wednesday - the focus will be on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night for the best chance of storms that could produce hail or high winds. This is a CONDITIONAL risk - that means that there remains some question as to how much storm development there will actually be. The confidence in the forecast is LOW as far as the risk for severe storms. Monitor updates on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night if you are concerned.
The most likely time period for the heaviest storms - maybe severe - would be late on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Will monitor Thursday into Saturday.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Small chances
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The main focus of the extended forecast will be the on/off chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Right now it appears the most widespread activity would be on Wednesday night and Thursday morning and then again on Saturday.
The placement of the frontal boundary will make all the difference as far as who ends up with rain and who does not. South of the front the temperatures will bill warm and the atmosphere will be a bit capped - meaning storms won't be able to form as easily as areas to the north of the front.
Areas to the north of the front will have the best chances for widespread rain and storms.
The front may very well find itself draped across the middle of our region. This means you should check back each day to see where the best chance for showers and storms will occur. Right now it still appears the best chance will be over the northern half of the region.
Here is the temperature forecast map for Friday afternoon - notice the SHARP boundary over our region with cooler temperatures north of the boundary and warmer conditions south of the boundary. This will be the focus of precipitation chances. Better chances north of the boundary (on the cool side).
It will be important to note where the boundary ends up each day and how strong the disturbances are that move along the boundary.
The placement of the frontal boundary will make all the difference as far as who ends up with rain and who does not. South of the front the temperatures will bill warm and the atmosphere will be a bit capped - meaning storms won't be able to form as easily as areas to the north of the front.
Areas to the north of the front will have the best chances for widespread rain and storms.
The front may very well find itself draped across the middle of our region. This means you should check back each day to see where the best chance for showers and storms will occur. Right now it still appears the best chance will be over the northern half of the region.
Here is the temperature forecast map for Friday afternoon - notice the SHARP boundary over our region with cooler temperatures north of the boundary and warmer conditions south of the boundary. This will be the focus of precipitation chances. Better chances north of the boundary (on the cool side).
It will be important to note where the boundary ends up each day and how strong the disturbances are that move along the boundary.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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