Friday evening into Saturday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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The rest of this afternoon into Friday night: Mostly cloudy with a few showers and thunderstorms - especially over parts of southern Illinois into southern Indiana. Further north and northwest you travel - the better chance for rain. Check radar - HERE - if you have any concerns
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 80% northern areas of the region and only a 10% chance over the far southern counties (again - mainly across parts of southern Illinois into southern Indiana) | Rainfall totals: 0.25" with locally heavier amounts
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Saturday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm early - then a chance for a few showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon hours - especially over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois - although scattered in nature if some manage to form..
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-25 mph - winds will be gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday night: Partly cloudy skies. Mild. A slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 60s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 47 degrees.
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph - gusts a bit higher
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Southerly winds at 10-15 mph - gusts a bit higher
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Sunday: Mostly sunny skies - an increase in clouds during the afternoon - it will be a mild day with windy conditions from time to time.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 78-82 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.Wind: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph with gusts above 25 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (Friday) into Friday evening - these are mainly over the northern parts of our region. Check the regional radars to view the precipitation shield.
There could be a few scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday, as well.
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If you have outdoor events then check radar to see where the thunderstorms are located. A much better chance for storms will arrive Sunday night into Monday morning.
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No significant wild cards in this forecast!
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No major changes in this update!
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few rumbles of thunder possible
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Friday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few rumbles of thunder possible
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Very early in the day - and again during the afternoon/evening hours.
.Saturday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Very early in the day - and again during the afternoon/evening hours.
Saturday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Small chance during the evening hours.
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night could bring a few strong thunderstorms. Monitor.
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No
Sunday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Sunday night could bring a few strong thunderstorms. Monitor.
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Sunday night - possible- please monitor for updates
Sunday night - possible- please monitor for updates
Monday - possible early morning hours
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Some clouds and precipitation spread into parts of Missouri and Illinois on this Friday afternoon - this was especially true for our northern counties. A few rumbles of thunder were being reported with the heavier storms.
You can view the radars by clicking here
Here was what radar looked like at noon on Friday - you can see the area of precipitation - mainly to our north and west.
Satellite imagery also shows the area of showers and thunderstorms
It appears that most of Saturday and Sunday will be mostly dry - warm - breezy at times. Not too bad - especially compared to the cold weather from earlier in the week.
Can't rule out a few thunderstorms on Saturday morning and again during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Scattered in nature. A much better chance for precipitation will arrive Sunday night into Monday.
Here are the temperature forecasts for Saturday morning - Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning - Sunday afternoon
Our next storm system will arrive on Sunday night into Monday - having to push it up 24 hours. Earlier updates suggested the main focus would be Monday night. It now appears that the system will arrive a bit earlier.
I am expecting a band of showers and thunderstorms to spread from west to east into our local counties on Sunday night and early Monday morning. The precipitation should come to an end by Monday afternoon.
Let's take a look at that on the NAM Model from www.wright-weather.com
The first image is for Sunday evening - the last two images are from 11 pm through the 5 am time frame on Sunday night into Monday morning - you can see the band of showers and storms on the future-cast radar.
How about the severe weather chances? It is true that a tornado outbreak will likely occur across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri later today into Saturday. Some of that severe weather may spread east on Sunday into Missouri and Arkansas - Iowa, as well.
We have been talking about the threat for a large outbreak over the Central United States for more than a month now - during this time frame. The long range cycle pattern seemed to do well with this event.
Here are the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlooks - the first image is for today (Friday) - the second image is for Saturday (high risk over parts of Kansas into Oklahoma) - the third image is the Sunday forecast. You can see that all of the risk zones stay to our west.
The yellow area on this map (for Friday) is for general thunderstorms (non-severe) - the orange area on this map is where they have placed a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Remember that a slight risk means that severe thunderstorms will likely occur but won't be widespread in nature.
This next image is the severe weather forecast for Saturday - a HIGH risk has been issued for the pink area. That basically means that an outbreak of tornadoes and/or severe storms is being forecast.
If you know someone in the high risk area then you might call and alert them that damaging weather - including significant tornadoes - may occur on Saturday or Saturday night. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS GRAPHIC MAY CHANGE - FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE GRAPHIC - CLICK HERE
This final image is for Sunday - you can see the risk zone to our west - this will need to be closely monitored. I can't rule out a few strong or severe storms into our region on Sunday evening into Monday morning.
The risk zone for Sunday night and Monday morning may need to be adjusted into our counties. Please watch for updates.
We will need to monitor future trends on this system. I can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms. Hail and gusty winds would be the main concern. I will update again tomorrow - especially if there have been changes in the forecast.
Rainfall amounts are probably going to be in the 0.25-0.50" range. Locally heavier if a band of thunderstorms form.
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HEADLINES: Some clouds and precipitation spread into parts of Missouri and Illinois on this Friday afternoon - this was especially true for our northern counties. A few rumbles of thunder were being reported with the heavier storms.
You can view the radars by clicking here
Here was what radar looked like at noon on Friday - you can see the area of precipitation - mainly to our north and west.
It appears that most of Saturday and Sunday will be mostly dry - warm - breezy at times. Not too bad - especially compared to the cold weather from earlier in the week.
Can't rule out a few thunderstorms on Saturday morning and again during Saturday afternoon/evening hours. Scattered in nature. A much better chance for precipitation will arrive Sunday night into Monday.
Here are the temperature forecasts for Saturday morning - Saturday afternoon - Sunday morning - Sunday afternoon
Our next storm system will arrive on Sunday night into Monday - having to push it up 24 hours. Earlier updates suggested the main focus would be Monday night. It now appears that the system will arrive a bit earlier.
I am expecting a band of showers and thunderstorms to spread from west to east into our local counties on Sunday night and early Monday morning. The precipitation should come to an end by Monday afternoon.
Let's take a look at that on the NAM Model from www.wright-weather.com
The first image is for Sunday evening - the last two images are from 11 pm through the 5 am time frame on Sunday night into Monday morning - you can see the band of showers and storms on the future-cast radar.
How about the severe weather chances? It is true that a tornado outbreak will likely occur across portions of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Missouri later today into Saturday. Some of that severe weather may spread east on Sunday into Missouri and Arkansas - Iowa, as well.
We have been talking about the threat for a large outbreak over the Central United States for more than a month now - during this time frame. The long range cycle pattern seemed to do well with this event.
Here are the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlooks - the first image is for today (Friday) - the second image is for Saturday (high risk over parts of Kansas into Oklahoma) - the third image is the Sunday forecast. You can see that all of the risk zones stay to our west.
The yellow area on this map (for Friday) is for general thunderstorms (non-severe) - the orange area on this map is where they have placed a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Remember that a slight risk means that severe thunderstorms will likely occur but won't be widespread in nature.
If you know someone in the high risk area then you might call and alert them that damaging weather - including significant tornadoes - may occur on Saturday or Saturday night. KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS GRAPHIC MAY CHANGE - FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE GRAPHIC - CLICK HERE
The risk zone for Sunday night and Monday morning may need to be adjusted into our counties. Please watch for updates.
We will need to monitor future trends on this system. I can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms. Hail and gusty winds would be the main concern. I will update again tomorrow - especially if there have been changes in the forecast.
Rainfall amounts are probably going to be in the 0.25-0.50" range. Locally heavier if a band of thunderstorms form.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
And here is the 5 day precipitation forecast
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates. Possible cold air shots after storm passes.
Confidence in my forecast. Very High
Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
More information on the long range cycle .
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The focus on the long range will be the Sunday night and Monday morning thunderstorm chances. It should be dry Tuesday into Thursday - some hints of another system late next week.
Short update today on the long range.
Short update today on the long range.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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