Monday night and Tuesday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Monday night: A few showers early then a few clouds and not as cold.
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds through the day - better chance of clouds in the afternoon. It will be a bit warmer. A chance for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon - mainly over parts of southeast Illinois into southwest Indiana.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 68-72 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: West/Southwest winds at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Tuesday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm - scattered if they develop.
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the lower 50s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 49 degrees.
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: Southwest at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a chance for a scattered shower or thunderstorm. Warmer.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-80 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 72 degrees.Wind: Southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts above 30 mph in open areas and on lakes
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25"
Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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No major concerns
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Monitor updates for the mid-week time frame - there could be some thunderstorms in the area.
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The wild card in this forecast will be the chance for a couple of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into Wednesday. Right now it appears the precipitation will be scattered in nature. Trying to pin down what exact area will receive precipitation will be a challenge. It may be that most of the area remains dry - I will tweak the forecast as this becomes a bit more clear.
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Updated temperature forecasts.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Tuesday: Severe weather is not likely - however, there may be a few heavier storms over parts of southeast Illinois, southwest Indiana, and parts of northwest Kentucky.
Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Perhaps a thunderstorm over parts of the area - mainly southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana/northwest Kentucky.
.Tuesday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Perhaps a thunderstorm over parts of the area - mainly southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana/northwest Kentucky.
Tuesday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Tuesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible
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Wednesday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Although monitor for updates because there will be quite a bit of instability. A few storms could produce hail/strong winds
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - Low chance
Thursday - Low chance
Friday - No
Friday night - Monitor
Friday night - Monitor
Saturday - Monitor
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Cold temperatures greeted many residents on Monday morning. Overnight lows dipped into the lower to middle 30s in some of our local counties.
A few showers are moving through southern Illinois this afternoon (Monday) - these will dissipate later this evening.
A large storm system continues to move up the east coast of the United States - this system is responsible for our northwest wind flow and cool temperatures.
Visible satellite shows the system nicely
We are entering an unsettled and complicated weather pattern with several chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The first chance for a few showers/storms will be on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night - then another shot on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Perhaps the best chance will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
I will have to fine tune the forecast as we move forward. I don't think everyone is going to see rain on Tuesday or Wednesday - but better coverage likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Here is what the high resolution WRF model is showing for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning - you can see a few showers and thunderstorms in our region. Again - this will be a complicated forecast for any one given spot. The scattered nature of the showers and storms will make it challenging to say who will and who will not receive rain.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center probabilities for Tuesday (mostly this is for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night) - they have placed us in the 5% risk for large hail and gusty winds - IF thunderstorms develop.
Officially they have not issued a slight risk outline - I will monitor and update on Tuesday morning if that changes.
These images are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for full view size - this is the future-cast radar (time stamps at top of image)
This first image is Monday afternoon - I wanted to show you the snow band over the northeast and into Canada!
This next image is for Tuesday afternoon - you can see a few showers in our region.
And finally this last image is for around 2-5 am on Wednesday morning - maybe even a thunderstorm scattered in the mix - again this is one models opinion on placement of precipitation. It will be tricky - at best - this week to give an exact placement.
I am just giving you a general idea that there will be some precipitation in our region.
Low temperatures on Tuesday morning - graph below
High temperatures on Tuesday afternoon (a bit warmer than Monday)
A storm system is going to wind up to our west this week and a warm front will be in/near our region. This will be one of the trigger mechanisms for thunderstorms. There will be quite a bit of instability on Wednesday afternoon/night. If storms form then a few could be on the heavy side. The severe weather risk appears low - but not zero. Monitor for updates as we move forward into the week.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center risk outline for Wednesday - they have placed us in a 5% probability outline. They have not issued a slight risk - just yet. I will monitor and update if that changes.
The 5% outline is for hail and high winds.
Here are the CAPE maps for Wednesday into Thursday - you can see quite a bit of CAPE in the region Remember that CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere
Images are from www.wright-weather.com
Click images for full size - the first two images are for Wednesday afternoon - the last image is for Thursday afternoon/evening.
Another chance for storms will arrive with the main cold front towards the end of the week into the weekend. A few of these thunderstorms could be on the strong or severe side - thinking right now is that the best chance would be on Friday/Saturday - perhaps emphasis on Saturday.
The Storm Prediction Center has not outlined an area just yet for Saturday - but that may very well change in future updates. I would not be surprised to see our region outlined for a severe weather threat as the storm system pulls into the Missouri Valley on Friday night into Saturday night.
Snow is falling across portions of the northeast - many of you may have seen some of this on the news today (Monday). Some areas are expecting six inches+ of wet snow.
Several nice snow images can be viewed on the WunderGround Weather web-site - this image was taken in Ithaca, New York
Another one from Maryland - beautiful snow (but damaging to trees and power lines)
My friend David Brown - from Kingston, Ontario - sent me the photo below. A little bit of snow on the ground earlier this morning.
Meanwhile our region continues to be on the dry side. Here is the month to date precipitation departures - wide area of the nation is in need of rain.
The scale is at the bottom of the image/graphic. The snowstorm and rain producer in the northeast United States is welcome - they are in a drought.
Temperatures have been mostly above normal for the month of April - although we have had several cold shots and it has not been nearly as warm as March was (March was the warmest on record for the nation)
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HEADLINES: Cold temperatures greeted many residents on Monday morning. Overnight lows dipped into the lower to middle 30s in some of our local counties.
A few showers are moving through southern Illinois this afternoon (Monday) - these will dissipate later this evening.
A large storm system continues to move up the east coast of the United States - this system is responsible for our northwest wind flow and cool temperatures.
Visible satellite shows the system nicely
We are entering an unsettled and complicated weather pattern with several chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms.
The first chance for a few showers/storms will be on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night - then another shot on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Perhaps the best chance will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
I will have to fine tune the forecast as we move forward. I don't think everyone is going to see rain on Tuesday or Wednesday - but better coverage likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Here is what the high resolution WRF model is showing for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning - you can see a few showers and thunderstorms in our region. Again - this will be a complicated forecast for any one given spot. The scattered nature of the showers and storms will make it challenging to say who will and who will not receive rain.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center probabilities for Tuesday (mostly this is for Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night) - they have placed us in the 5% risk for large hail and gusty winds - IF thunderstorms develop.
Officially they have not issued a slight risk outline - I will monitor and update on Tuesday morning if that changes.
These images are from www.wright-weather.com - click image for full view size - this is the future-cast radar (time stamps at top of image)
This first image is Monday afternoon - I wanted to show you the snow band over the northeast and into Canada!
This next image is for Tuesday afternoon - you can see a few showers in our region.
And finally this last image is for around 2-5 am on Wednesday morning - maybe even a thunderstorm scattered in the mix - again this is one models opinion on placement of precipitation. It will be tricky - at best - this week to give an exact placement.
I am just giving you a general idea that there will be some precipitation in our region.
A storm system is going to wind up to our west this week and a warm front will be in/near our region. This will be one of the trigger mechanisms for thunderstorms. There will be quite a bit of instability on Wednesday afternoon/night. If storms form then a few could be on the heavy side. The severe weather risk appears low - but not zero. Monitor for updates as we move forward into the week.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center risk outline for Wednesday - they have placed us in a 5% probability outline. They have not issued a slight risk - just yet. I will monitor and update if that changes.
The 5% outline is for hail and high winds.
Here are the CAPE maps for Wednesday into Thursday - you can see quite a bit of CAPE in the region Remember that CAPE is basically energy in the atmosphere
Images are from www.wright-weather.com
Click images for full size - the first two images are for Wednesday afternoon - the last image is for Thursday afternoon/evening.
Another chance for storms will arrive with the main cold front towards the end of the week into the weekend. A few of these thunderstorms could be on the strong or severe side - thinking right now is that the best chance would be on Friday/Saturday - perhaps emphasis on Saturday.
The Storm Prediction Center has not outlined an area just yet for Saturday - but that may very well change in future updates. I would not be surprised to see our region outlined for a severe weather threat as the storm system pulls into the Missouri Valley on Friday night into Saturday night.
Snow is falling across portions of the northeast - many of you may have seen some of this on the news today (Monday). Some areas are expecting six inches+ of wet snow.
Another one from Maryland - beautiful snow (but damaging to trees and power lines)
My friend David Brown - from Kingston, Ontario - sent me the photo below. A little bit of snow on the ground earlier this morning.
Meanwhile our region continues to be on the dry side. Here is the month to date precipitation departures - wide area of the nation is in need of rain.
The scale is at the bottom of the image/graphic. The snowstorm and rain producer in the northeast United States is welcome - they are in a drought.
Temperatures have been mostly above normal for the month of April - although we have had several cold shots and it has not been nearly as warm as March was (March was the warmest on record for the nation)
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 72 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Small chances
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The main concern in the extended will be on and off shower and thunderstorm chances right on into Saturday afternoon/evening.
It won't rain all the time - there will be scattered chances Tuesday into Friday.
A cold front and a larger storm system will approach the region on Friday night into Saturday afternoon. This will create a better environment for thunderstorms - some of which could be severe. Monitor for updates later this week - a bit too far out for specifics. I like to keep the severe weather forecasts in the short range discussion.
I won't be surprised if we see temperatures down into the 30s at the end of the month even into May. Several cold shots possible.
It won't rain all the time - there will be scattered chances Tuesday into Friday.
A cold front and a larger storm system will approach the region on Friday night into Saturday afternoon. This will create a better environment for thunderstorms - some of which could be severe. Monitor for updates later this week - a bit too far out for specifics. I like to keep the severe weather forecasts in the short range discussion.
I won't be surprised if we see temperatures down into the 30s at the end of the month even into May. Several cold shots possible.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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