Saturday night into Sunday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Saturday night: Decreasing clouds - cooler.
Below normal temperatures
Lows: In the upper 30s and lower 40s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 5 mph.
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday: Partly cloudy skies and a slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms - especially in the afternoon - it will be cool.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 62-65 degrees. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 71 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northerly winds at 10-15 mph - gusty winds possible near showers/storms
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Sunday night: Mostly clear skies - cool. Will monitor for the potential of a few locations being even colder.
Below normal temperatures
Below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 31-37 range - potential for colder in a few spots | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northerly at 5-10 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Monday: Mostly sunny and cool temperatures. Breezy at times.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around 58-64 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 71 degrees.Wind: Northwest winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Can't rule out some gusty winds and lightning with any storms that form on Sunday - showers could also produce gusty winds. I can't 100% rule out a few reports of small hail.
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No major concerns - outdoor events should check radars on Sunday. Also - monitor forecasts for updates on Sunday nights low temperatures - it will likely get down into the 30s. This could cause some concern for plants. I am thinking lower to middle 30s in some of our counties.
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The only wild card in this forecast will be Sunday - there could be a few showers develop as a weak system pushes in from the northwest. This could spark an area of showers that will spread over our region - I can't rule out a rumble of thunder - gusty winds.
Anyone with sensitive plants should monitor Monday morning low temperatures.
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I did put a few showers into the Sunday forecast as a weak disturbance moves into the region from the northwest.
Lowered Sunday night lows
Lowered Sunday night lows
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a couple of thunderstorms possible with gusty winds and small hail.
.Sunday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a couple of thunderstorms possible with gusty winds and small hail.
Sunday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Sunday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Monday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
Wednesday - Will monitor
Thursday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A weak disturbance will move into the region over the next 24 hours. Sunday will bring cool temperatures - I would not be surprised to see some of our region dip into the 30s on Sunday morning (Saturday night/Sunday morning). Frost is not likely - but it will be a bit on the chilly side.
Any showers on Sunday should be mostly light - many areas may not see rain at all. This is a weak disturbance. Yesterday it appeared it might be moisture starved - but today's data indicates perhaps enough moisture will be available to produce a few showers and even a rumble of thunder. Cold air aloft - steep lapse rates also mean a risk for a few reports of small hail and gusty winds (with any storms that form).
Sunday night will bring temperatures down into the 30s in our region - cold for this time of the year. It appears winds will be just strong enough to prevent frost - however, this will need to be monitored.
I will update the blog tomorrow morning if I see any changes.
It will be a bit breezy on Monday - cool temperatures, as well. Highs will only be in the 60s on both Sunday and Monday! I think we used up a lot of our "warm" days back in March! Now we are experiencing just about the complete opposite.
Our odd streak of uneventful severe weather days will also continue. Typically in April we are busy dealing with severe weather outbreaks. Not this year. Let's hope that continues for awhile.
There will be another chance for storms on Wednesday.
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HEADLINES: A weak disturbance will move into the region over the next 24 hours. Sunday will bring cool temperatures - I would not be surprised to see some of our region dip into the 30s on Sunday morning (Saturday night/Sunday morning). Frost is not likely - but it will be a bit on the chilly side.
Any showers on Sunday should be mostly light - many areas may not see rain at all. This is a weak disturbance. Yesterday it appeared it might be moisture starved - but today's data indicates perhaps enough moisture will be available to produce a few showers and even a rumble of thunder. Cold air aloft - steep lapse rates also mean a risk for a few reports of small hail and gusty winds (with any storms that form).
Sunday night will bring temperatures down into the 30s in our region - cold for this time of the year. It appears winds will be just strong enough to prevent frost - however, this will need to be monitored.
I will update the blog tomorrow morning if I see any changes.
It will be a bit breezy on Monday - cool temperatures, as well. Highs will only be in the 60s on both Sunday and Monday! I think we used up a lot of our "warm" days back in March! Now we are experiencing just about the complete opposite.
Our odd streak of uneventful severe weather days will also continue. Typically in April we are busy dealing with severe weather outbreaks. Not this year. Let's hope that continues for awhile.
There will be another chance for storms on Wednesday.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Small chances
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. A chance for some thunderstorms on Wednesday/Thursday - severe weather risk appears low. I will monitor and update - still a bit too far out to make a call on that subject.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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