Wednesday evening into Thursday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Wednesday night: Partly cloudy with a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce hail and high winds. To check weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the 65-70 degree range | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Southwest winds at 10-20 mph and gusty early in the evening
Precipitation probability - 30% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Thursday: A mix of sun and clouds. A chance for a few showers and thunderstorms. To check weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 75-83 degrees - wide range of temperatures in the region. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.Above normal temperatures
Wind: Westerly winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Thursday night: Partly cloudy skies. A chance for a shower and thunderstorm - mainly over southern counties. To check weather radar - click here
Above normal temperatures
Above normal temperatures
Lows: in the upper 40s to middle 50s (temps will vary quite a bit in the region because of the location of the frontal system) | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms Confidence in this forecast is medium
Wind: Northerly winds at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 20% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms Confidence in this forecast is medium
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Friday: A mix of sun and clouds - a chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm south of the front and cooler north of the front - the front will likely be draped over parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois - north of the front it will be quite a bit cooler. To check weather radar - click here
Near normal temperatures
Highs: around 65-70 degrees - note that temperatures will vary in the region (much cooler further north you go in our region - warmer south) | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.Wind: East at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 60% | Rainfall totals: 0.25" but locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms
Confidence in this forecast is low
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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Complicated forecast with rain chances scattered over the next 5-7 days. A few of the storms could produce large hail and gusty winds - although the risk appears low.
Another chance for strong storms will arrive around Saturday. Monitor for updates.
Monitor for the risk of a few severe thunderstorms over the coming days. Don't forget that lightning is always a concern for outdoor events - sporting activities.
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The wild card in the forecast will be the placement of showers and thunderstorms each day for the next 5-7 days. There will be periods of time where some areas will pick up heavy storms while other areas remain bone dry. This will make it extremely difficult to forecast for any one given spot. If you have outdoor plans then I would suggest checking radars from time to time and monitoring for future weather updates.
Also keep in mind that rainfall totals will vary greatly in the region - some areas may not pick up much at all in the coming days while other areas will pick up 1/2" or greater amounts. Feast or famine!
Monitor radar if you have outdoor activities or plans.
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Tweaked temperatures and precipitation probabilities.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Wednesday night: Severe storms will be possible over southeast Illinois and southern Indiana and perhaps into parts of northwest Kentucky. Monitor your local media and NOAA Weather Radio in the event a few storms become severe..
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Wednesday night: Severe storms will be possible over southeast Illinois and southern Indiana and perhaps into parts of northwest Kentucky. Monitor your local media and NOAA Weather Radio in the event a few storms become severe..
Wednesday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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Thursday: Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible - mainly over our southern counties
.Thursday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - a few thunderstorms will be possible - mainly over our southern counties
Thursday night : Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes a few storms over our southern counties.
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Friday: We will monitor Friday for the potential of a few severe storms.
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible watch
Thursday - Unlikely
Friday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Tonight - Possible watch
Thursday - Unlikely
Friday - Will monitor this time frame
Saturday - Possible
Sunday - No
Monday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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You can listen to local emergency services, SKYWARN storm spotters, and more by visiting our scanner feed page - click here
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
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This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: A complicated forecast continues to unfold for our region over the coming days. Some areas have picked up rain today - other areas have had sun and warm temperatures.
If you have outdoor plans the next 3-4 days then I would suggest checking back for updates - check the radar links provided above - check the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page. There will be a WIDE range of weather across our region. This will make it difficult for spot forecasts (meaning "what is going to happen in town X or Y). Temperatures will vary and precipitation will vary greatly.
Temperatures this afternoon - Wednesday afternoon - range from the 60s in areas with clouds and rain into the 80s where the sun is shining.
There will be a frontal system draped in/near our region for the next few days. This will provide a focal point for showers and thunderstorms. Occasionally the thunderstorms could be on the heavy side - hail and high winds will be possible with a few storms. This is most likely across the slight risk zone (see map below) tonight.
The yellow area on this map represents general thunderstorms (likely below severe limits) - the orange area indicates a slight risk zone. Remember that a slight risk of severe thunderstorms means that a few severe storms are likely to occur in the outlined region - but they are not forecast to be widespread in nature. This map is for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Here is the latest Thursday outlook - you can see the general thunderstorm risk zone shifts south a bit. No severe weather risk is outlined for our region on Thursday. The front will return on Friday - bringing the chances further north (back into much of our region).
Temperatures tonight (Wednesday night) into Friday will vary quite a bit in the region - depending on which side of the front you find yourself. A wide range in temperatures
The images below are from www.wright-weather.com - they show just how much of a contrast there will be in the dew points over our region - how much moisture is in the air. You can see once the front passes through that dew points drastically drop off.
This first map is for Thursday afternoon - see the pool of higher dew points over our region - we will have to wait and see just how far that shifts southward. The placement of this pool of moisture will also help decide where the greatest chance of rain will be.
Now on the image above - see how much the dew points have fallen? Drastic drop behind the front - that is a push of cooler air and lower dew points coming in from the north - the higher dew points are pushed well to our south. Again we will have to monitor to see how this pans out - this is the NAM model version of how everything unfolds.
On Saturday we see the dew points rise again as the front moves back north - this puts us back in the risk for thunderstorms.
Check out this sounding for Paducah, Kentucky on Saturday - for those who know a little more about meteorology - this is showing some high CAPE numbers (3000+) for western KY on Saturday - if this were to verify then we might see some reports of hail. The wind fields aren't overly impressive but the instability is more than sufficient for some thunderstorms. Small risk for severe weather.
With that said - another decent shot at thunderstorms will occur on Saturday or Saturday evening- some of the data indicates locally heavy rain and perhaps a small risk of severe weather. The wind fields are fairly weak - instability is larger on Saturday. So there are some positives and negatives for forecasting the severe threat. I don't like to go into much detail beyond 72 hours when it comes to severe weather. Best advice is to monitor future updates - small risk on Saturday for severe weather.
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HEADLINES: A complicated forecast continues to unfold for our region over the coming days. Some areas have picked up rain today - other areas have had sun and warm temperatures.
If you have outdoor plans the next 3-4 days then I would suggest checking back for updates - check the radar links provided above - check the Beau Dodson Weather Facebook page. There will be a WIDE range of weather across our region. This will make it difficult for spot forecasts (meaning "what is going to happen in town X or Y). Temperatures will vary and precipitation will vary greatly.
Temperatures this afternoon - Wednesday afternoon - range from the 60s in areas with clouds and rain into the 80s where the sun is shining.
There will be a frontal system draped in/near our region for the next few days. This will provide a focal point for showers and thunderstorms. Occasionally the thunderstorms could be on the heavy side - hail and high winds will be possible with a few storms. This is most likely across the slight risk zone (see map below) tonight.
The yellow area on this map represents general thunderstorms (likely below severe limits) - the orange area indicates a slight risk zone. Remember that a slight risk of severe thunderstorms means that a few severe storms are likely to occur in the outlined region - but they are not forecast to be widespread in nature. This map is for Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night.
Here is the latest Thursday outlook - you can see the general thunderstorm risk zone shifts south a bit. No severe weather risk is outlined for our region on Thursday. The front will return on Friday - bringing the chances further north (back into much of our region).
The images below are from www.wright-weather.com - they show just how much of a contrast there will be in the dew points over our region - how much moisture is in the air. You can see once the front passes through that dew points drastically drop off.
This first map is for Thursday afternoon - see the pool of higher dew points over our region - we will have to wait and see just how far that shifts southward. The placement of this pool of moisture will also help decide where the greatest chance of rain will be.
On Saturday we see the dew points rise again as the front moves back north - this puts us back in the risk for thunderstorms.
With that said - another decent shot at thunderstorms will occur on Saturday or Saturday evening- some of the data indicates locally heavy rain and perhaps a small risk of severe weather. The wind fields are fairly weak - instability is larger on Saturday. So there are some positives and negatives for forecasting the severe threat. I don't like to go into much detail beyond 72 hours when it comes to severe weather. Best advice is to monitor future updates - small risk on Saturday for severe weather.
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Rainfall will vary greatly across our region - some areas won't pick up much at all while neighboring counties could easily pick up 1/2" or greater. It will be difficult to pin-point one town from the next with this type of pattern.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
Rainfall will vary greatly across our region - some areas won't pick up much at all while neighboring counties could easily pick up 1/2" or greater. It will be difficult to pin-point one town from the next with this type of pattern.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cool/cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Small chances
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Medium
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. The focus on the extended forecast will be the Saturday risk for thunderstorms. This will need to be monitored - especially with there being quite a few outdoor activities Saturday morning and afternoon.
A few thunderstorms could reach severe levels in our region - check back for updates as we push forward through the week. Risk appears small but not zero.
Shower and thunderstorm chances may continue right on into next week as several disturbances move through our region. Hopefully we will all pick up some much needed rainfall. It is dry.
Here is the latest six to ten day outlook for temperatures - we favor above normal temperatures - although it is close to being normal temperatures overall. I think we see a mixture.
A few thunderstorms could reach severe levels in our region - check back for updates as we push forward through the week. Risk appears small but not zero.
Shower and thunderstorm chances may continue right on into next week as several disturbances move through our region. Hopefully we will all pick up some much needed rainfall. It is dry.
Here is the latest six to ten day outlook for temperatures - we favor above normal temperatures - although it is close to being normal temperatures overall. I think we see a mixture.
Seasonal outlooks can be viewed on the web-site - click here
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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