Thursday evening into Friday update
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night: Any showers and thunderstorms that remain from late afternoon will come to an end. Cooler temperatures. Patchy fog possible
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Lows: in the 36-44 degree range - cooler north and east - warmer south and west in the area | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.Near normal to below normal temperatures
Wind: North/northeast winds at 10-15 mph with gusts above 20 mph.
Precipitation probability - 30% early in the evening | Rainfall totals: 0.10"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday: Sunny during the morning hours - a few clouds in the afternoon - cooler.
Below normal temperatures
Highs: around upper 50s northern counties and and lower 60s southern counties. | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Below normal temperatures
Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is very high
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Friday night: Clear and cool/cold. Patchy light frost not out of the question.
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Near normal to below normal temperatures
Lows: generally in the upper 30s | Normal lows for this time of the year are around 44 degrees.
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
Wind: Northeast at 5 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning - then increasing clouds during the afternoon hours - cool morning.
Above normal temperatures
Highs: around 65-70 degrees | Normal highs for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.Wind: Southeast at 5-15 mph
Precipitation probability - 0% | Rainfall totals: 0"
Confidence in this forecast is high
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Don't forget to sign up for the severe weather "heads up" email list - I usually email everyone before a big event - severe weather - tornado outbreaks - winter storms - ice storms. Click here to join
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A few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce a few hail reports - gusty winds.
It will be chilly the next few nights - Saturday morning may be colder than Friday - would not be surprised to see 30s in our area. Patchy frost not out of the question on Saturday morning.
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Monitor radar and warnings if you live in the KY/TN border counties - the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee. Storms will end later this evening.
If you have sensitive plants then you may want to monitor temperatures - especially on Saturday morning.
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The wild card in this forecast will be how low the temperatures will fall - especially on Saturday morning. I am thinking 30s will be the rule over the area - especially the central and northern counties. Can not rule out some patchy frost - especially if the wind becomes calm on Saturday morning.
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Tweaked temperatures a little bit.
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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.
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Remember that the National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces 58 mph winds or higher, hail 1" in size or larger, and/or a tornado. More information with some slides concerning reporting severe weather - click here
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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Rest of this afternoon into Thursday night: Thunderstorms could be severe (hail being the main concern) - mainly the southern counties - storms will end by late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rest of this afternoon and into Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - this afternoon over the area and then very early in the evening - mainly southern counties - storms will come to an end during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
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Rest of this afternoon into Thursday night: Thunderstorms could be severe (hail being the main concern) - mainly the southern counties - storms will end by late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rest of this afternoon and into Thursday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? Yes - this afternoon over the area and then very early in the evening - mainly southern counties - storms will come to an end during the late afternoon and early evening hours.
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Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
.Friday: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
Friday night : Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Friday night: Will there be a chance for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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Saturday: Severe weather is not anticipated. No snow or ice.
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Remainder of this afternoon - Yes - southern counties this afternoon
Tonight - storms will end
Friday - No
Saturday: Will there be a risk for non-severe thunderstorms? No
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To view storm reports from today and yesterday - click here
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Will the Storm Prediction Center issue a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, or western Kentucky?
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Remainder of this afternoon - Yes - southern counties this afternoon
Tonight - storms will end
Friday - No
Saturday - No
Sunday - No
Monday - No
Tuesday - No
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view the official Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here Alternative link - click here
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To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in IL - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here
All other states- Click Here
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The links above are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States.
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Some of you picked up quite a bit of rain over the last 48 hours and other areas remained dry. I can't say I was entirely happy with my forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. I thought the precipitation would be a bit more widespread.
There were a few reports of heavy weather on Wednesday night - some gusty winds and small hail - quite a bit of lightning, as well.
The upper level low that has been causing our unsettled weather is slowly moving across our region this afternoon - Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon hours - especially our southern counties in Kentucky, southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas, and parts of western Tennessee. A few cells could be severe.
There will be a few remaining showers into the early evening hours over our southern counties - then everything will push off to the east and southeast as we move through the evening and overnight hours.
Friday will be dry and cooler.
Temperatures behind this system will be a bit on the cool side. This is especially true when you compare them to recent weeks.
Here are the low temperature forecasts for Friday morning and Saturday morning (Friday is the first map and Saturday is the second map)
Agricultural interests want to know about the frost or freeze potential - the good news is that we are not forecasting a hard freeze. The bad news is that there could be some patchy frost in the region on Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip into the 30s on both Friday and Saturday morning over portions of our region - the wind will be a bit more calm on Saturday morning. Thus - there could be some patchy frost.
Here is what the NAM model is showing - from www.wright-weather.com - for Saturday morning - another models opinion. You get the general idea - there will be some 30s on the map for morning lows. Click the image for the real size view.
Here are the frost and freeze advisories - as of Thursday afternoon - these could change - you can view the latest advisories and most up to date advisories - click here
Right now it appears that our counties will stay above freezing. There are frost and freeze advisories off to our north and east - across portions of the Ohio Valley. But - for our local region - it appears we may stay just warm enough to prevent any major/significant problems. Monitor for updates - in case we have to lower temperature forecasts.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Friday into Sunday
Another cold shot is possible next week - we will need to monitor for additional frost chances.
Easter weekend - this is covered in the extended forecast (see the bottom of this blog post).
There is a new web-site that I strongly encourage everyone to visit - these are the best tornado safety videos that I have seen online and available to the public. A lot of work went into these videos. Missouri StormAware - click here to view the videos
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To view the interactive warning map - click here.
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The Weather Observatory is a strong partner with the National Weather Service - click here to visit your local NWS web-site. For the most up to date warnings/advisories hit refresh on their page.
This forecast analysis covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
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HEADLINES: Some of you picked up quite a bit of rain over the last 48 hours and other areas remained dry. I can't say I was entirely happy with my forecast for Wednesday night and Thursday. I thought the precipitation would be a bit more widespread.
There were a few reports of heavy weather on Wednesday night - some gusty winds and small hail - quite a bit of lightning, as well.
The upper level low that has been causing our unsettled weather is slowly moving across our region this afternoon - Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms will continue into the afternoon hours - especially our southern counties in Kentucky, southeast Missouri, northeast Arkansas, and parts of western Tennessee. A few cells could be severe.
There will be a few remaining showers into the early evening hours over our southern counties - then everything will push off to the east and southeast as we move through the evening and overnight hours.
Friday will be dry and cooler.
Temperatures behind this system will be a bit on the cool side. This is especially true when you compare them to recent weeks.
Here are the low temperature forecasts for Friday morning and Saturday morning (Friday is the first map and Saturday is the second map)
Agricultural interests want to know about the frost or freeze potential - the good news is that we are not forecasting a hard freeze. The bad news is that there could be some patchy frost in the region on Saturday morning. Temperatures will dip into the 30s on both Friday and Saturday morning over portions of our region - the wind will be a bit more calm on Saturday morning. Thus - there could be some patchy frost.
Here is what the NAM model is showing - from www.wright-weather.com - for Saturday morning - another models opinion. You get the general idea - there will be some 30s on the map for morning lows. Click the image for the real size view.
Here are the frost and freeze advisories - as of Thursday afternoon - these could change - you can view the latest advisories and most up to date advisories - click here
Right now it appears that our counties will stay above freezing. There are frost and freeze advisories off to our north and east - across portions of the Ohio Valley. But - for our local region - it appears we may stay just warm enough to prevent any major/significant problems. Monitor for updates - in case we have to lower temperature forecasts.
Here are the high temperature forecasts for Friday into Sunday
Another cold shot is possible next week - we will need to monitor for additional frost chances.
Easter weekend - this is covered in the extended forecast (see the bottom of this blog post).
There is a new web-site that I strongly encourage everyone to visit - these are the best tornado safety videos that I have seen online and available to the public. A lot of work went into these videos. Missouri StormAware - click here to view the videos
We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more! Click here
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We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
. We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars. We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.
Click here for our radar page - WEATHER RADARS---
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We also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
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Want to learn more about how to use our radars? I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 48 hours. This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected. Remember the scale is at the top of the map.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour precipitation forecast maps then click here.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time. Those maps can be viewed here.
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You can view drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here.
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Current conditions - including temperatures, apparent temperatures, heat index, wind chill, wind, pressure, humidity, dew points, and more - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperature and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in
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To view recent records that have been broken - click here
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Date Range: April 9th-14th
Event: Perhaps a shot at cooler air
Severe Risk:
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: A chance for a shot at cooler temperatures chances.
Confidence in my forecast: Medium
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Date Range: April 13th-17th
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates. Possible cold air shots after storm passes.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: April 17th-30th
Event: Unsettled weather - several cold frontal passages Possible cold air shots, as well.
Severe Risk: Yes - possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
Date Range: May 5th-11h
Event: Unsettled weather
Severe Risk: Possible
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: Unsettled weather.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
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Date Range: May 29th-June 3rd
Event: A larger scale system to impact the central United States
Severe Risk: Yes - possible event.
Frozen Precipitation Risk: No
Details: long range cycle forecast indicates the potential of a larger scale event during these dates.
Confidence in my forecast. Low
More information on the long range cycle
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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Remember that as a general policy, in the long range outlook, I try not to mention severe thunderstorms more than 72 hours in advance (unless the signal is so overwhelmingly convincing that it warrants a mention). I will mention thunderstorm risks and I will give as many details as possible. Also remember you can view the long range severe weather outlooks by visiting the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
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1. Easter weekend will bring a cold front with a chance for a few showers/thunderstorms. Right now I believe the best chance for precipitation (scattered in nature) will be Saturday night and Sunday morning - early. The hope is that the front will push out before morning sunrise services.
Severe weather is not anticipated with this cold front.
Sunday, once the cold front pushes off to the east, should bring sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.
You can see the dew point maps (below) where the cold front should be positioned early Sunday morning - see the tongue of higher dew points ahead of the front? Then you can see on Sunday afternoon that the dew points are quite a bit lower. That indicates frontal passage - the cold front has moved through the region. Ahead of cold fronts you see higher dew points because the air is typically coming from the Gulf of Mexico (from the south) - behind the front you typically see drier air move in.
These two maps are from www.wright-weather.com (my favorite source of weather model data)
The above image is Sunday morning around 7 am - the image below is Sunday afternoon
Several cold shots of air will be possible next week - we will need to monitor just how cold temperatures will fall. We could once again see some 30s in the region.
Warmer air will advance into the central United States as we push towards the end of next week into the weekend (the 13th, 14th, 15th) - this will also bring/increase our storm chances.
A more active pattern of weather will then develop towards the end of next week into the following 2 weeks. Stay tuned for updated forecasts concerning this change in our pattern. Now is a great time to buy a weather radio - before we return to a severe weather pattern.
Severe weather is not anticipated with this cold front.
Sunday, once the cold front pushes off to the east, should bring sunny skies and seasonable temperatures.
You can see the dew point maps (below) where the cold front should be positioned early Sunday morning - see the tongue of higher dew points ahead of the front? Then you can see on Sunday afternoon that the dew points are quite a bit lower. That indicates frontal passage - the cold front has moved through the region. Ahead of cold fronts you see higher dew points because the air is typically coming from the Gulf of Mexico (from the south) - behind the front you typically see drier air move in.
These two maps are from www.wright-weather.com (my favorite source of weather model data)
The above image is Sunday morning around 7 am - the image below is Sunday afternoon
Several cold shots of air will be possible next week - we will need to monitor just how cold temperatures will fall. We could once again see some 30s in the region.
Warmer air will advance into the central United States as we push towards the end of next week into the weekend (the 13th, 14th, 15th) - this will also bring/increase our storm chances.
A more active pattern of weather will then develop towards the end of next week into the following 2 weeks. Stay tuned for updated forecasts concerning this change in our pattern. Now is a great time to buy a weather radio - before we return to a severe weather pattern.
Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event. I recommend the Midland Model 300 NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio - that is what I use here at my house!
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Meteorologist Beau DodsonMcCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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Beau Dodson Weather - Facebook
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here
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All other states- Click Here
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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site.
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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Remember most of the maps on the blog can be viewed on Weather Observatory Web-Site
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