3 PM Update
The mid-week storm continues to trend south. Appears our chances for significant snow are dwindling from that storm. Cold week and then we moderate.
Not a single piece of data shows decent snow for our region on Wed/Thursday. Some light snow - but otherwise - cold.
Will continue to monitor.
February 6, 2011
1 PM Update
Winter weather advisory in effect for far southern IL, southeast MO, and western KY. This is for the 1-3" of snow we have been talking about over the last few days. Appears on track - was worried last night when the data lost it. But - appears on track.
Pockets of 2-4" likely over part of west KY and perhaps southeast IL - I still think there will be a heavier band set up somewhere in the region - totals could exceed 4". Still too early to know what counties. But, keep that in mind.
Also - temperatures are warmer today than forecast - expect middle to upper 40s over part of southern IL and 40s for western KY.
Otherwise - no changes.
9 AM Update
Good morning everyone!
We will hold the forecast for today with some light precipitation this afternoon but more likely tonight. Rain changinng to snow. I am still holding with an inch or two - especially over our eastern counties. Can't rule out 2-4" in a band - but those bands can't be forecast until the last minute or once underway.
Main problem will be surface temperatures are a tad warmer - this could hold down accumulation.
Best chances for snow sticking to the ground might end up being in southern Indiana back into parts of western Kentucky. But - we could all see a dusting to an inch.
We will see how it goes - either way this isn't a big event.
The mid-week storm continues to trend too far south and east to bring us heavy snow. We need it to trend north a bit - I won't give up hope until Monday. I have said that Monday will be the day to make a first call on how it all unfolds.
Not looking good for snow lovers - but I said I would give it until Monday before cutting the chord. Appears it may stay too far south of our region to bring heavy snows. But - again - will hold off until tomorrow before making that call.
Beau
February 6, 2011:
Zoom zoom and the first week of February is almost finished! You know what that means? Just 3 more weeks until Meteorological SPRING begins!!! Now, some of you are thinking - what the heck is meteorological spring - and in anticipation of that question I have an answer for you :)
Basically meteorologists divide the seasons into four sections - winter would be December-February and spring would be March through May! Nice and simple. Now - mother nature doesn't always listen to what meteorologists have to say (wish she did). But - typically, of course, meteorological spring means the end of winter is near and warmer weather will start to blossom.
Some of the data continues to indicate we will start to see a moderation of this extreme pattern by the week of the 14th. But - alas - that is a long way off and we have to deal with Jack Frost for at least the near term.
And even with that - winter won't be over ;)
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER You have to click the LIKE button at the top in order to follow along with the updates. Just a simple click and you are there.
I am now doing video weather briefings
February 6th Video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Rain and snow will develop tonight and continue into Monday. Accumulations from a heavy dusting to 1-3" is most likely. Highest accumulations will be over western Kentucky.
Forecast:
Sunday - Cloudy. Cold. Highs in the upper 30s.
Sunday night - Snow and rain likely - changing to all snow late. Lows around 28-31 degrees.
Monday - A for snow. Cold. Highs in the 30s - falling during the afternoon. Accumulations of snow from a heavy dusting to 1-3". Less west and more east.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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A reinforcing shot of cold air arrive later on Monday into Tuesday - followed by a possible significant winter storm towards the middle of next week - followed by yet even colder air.
There are concerns about the possibility of extreme cold next week - perhaps the coldest air of the winter season - thus far. I know that is hard to believe!
However, before we buy into this solution and idea we need to understand that all of this will depend on whether or not we get the mid-week storm wound up. There are questions on this subject - some data suggests that this will not be nearly as big of a deal as earlier forecasts suggested.
We will once again pull the lever on the winter storm slot machine and see what we end up with!
If the storm remains weak then it will simply be cold next week with some light snow - if the storm is stronger than the models are saying then the better shot at record cold temperatures and heavy snow.
I continue to lean towards the low tracking a bit further north than the GFS model is showing and believe the EC may not be too far off - a phasing (coming together) of the jet streams would push the track back north and west.
Stay tuned!
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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