February 22, 2011
2 PM Update
10 AM Update
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No real changes this morning - there are major disagreements among forecasters as to the track of the surface low on Thursday. And - unfortunately - this has a huge impact on our local weather.
If this low tracks to our north then the odds increase for severe weather for our local counties. However, if the low tracks to our south then we are looking at mostly a heavy rain event.
This mornings data indicates a southward shift in the low vs what we were seeing yesterday. This could mean good news for our area.
I don't believe the models will have a handle on the track of the low until Wednesday night.
This is a stay tuned type event.
I am forecasting rainfall totals of 1-2" for most of our counties with locally 2-4" of rain in a band from eastern Arkansas into Kentucky. We will have to see where the exact placement of that heavier band sets up. Either way - a widespread rainfall event is going to impact the region.
Another rain maker is likely early next week. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2" may occur.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued its day 3 severe weather outlook. I am going to post the probability chart - the 30% region is quite significant this far out. I believe this would be at least a moderate risk (remember the SPC has three levels - slight and then moderate and then finally high risk).
Again - a lot of this will be determined by the track of the area of low pressure.
February 22, 2011
2 PM Update
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler.
Highs: Middle 40s | Wind: North winds at 10 mph.
Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Colder.
Lows: Upper 20s and lower 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Milder. A slight chance for a few scattered showers.
Highs: Highs in the lower 50s | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain developing - 100% chance of rain late. A chance for thunder. Milder and breezy.
Lows: Lower 50s with temperatures rising through the night | Wind: South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Some locally heavy rain possible with strong/severe storms not out of the question. Mild and windy. Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-2" range likely across the area. Locally heavier rain possible in some counties.
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.
10 AM Update
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox
No real changes this morning - there are major disagreements among forecasters as to the track of the surface low on Thursday. And - unfortunately - this has a huge impact on our local weather.
If this low tracks to our north then the odds increase for severe weather for our local counties. However, if the low tracks to our south then we are looking at mostly a heavy rain event.
This mornings data indicates a southward shift in the low vs what we were seeing yesterday. This could mean good news for our area.
I don't believe the models will have a handle on the track of the low until Wednesday night.
This is a stay tuned type event.
I am forecasting rainfall totals of 1-2" for most of our counties with locally 2-4" of rain in a band from eastern Arkansas into Kentucky. We will have to see where the exact placement of that heavier band sets up. Either way - a widespread rainfall event is going to impact the region.
Another rain maker is likely early next week. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2" may occur.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued its day 3 severe weather outlook. I am going to post the probability chart - the 30% region is quite significant this far out. I believe this would be at least a moderate risk (remember the SPC has three levels - slight and then moderate and then finally high risk).
Again - a lot of this will be determined by the track of the area of low pressure.
February 22, 2011
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Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and Thursday. Some heavy rain is possible and possibly strong storms. Stay tuned
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and Thursday. Some heavy rain is possible and possibly strong storms. Stay tuned
Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler.
Highs: Middle 40s | Wind: North winds at 10 mph.
Tuesday night: Mostly clear. Colder.
Lows: Lower 30s | Wind: Northeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday: A mix of sun and clouds. Mild.
Highs: Highs in the lower 50s | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain developing - 100% chance of rain late. Milder and breezy.
Lows: Lower 50s with temperatures rising through the night | Wind: South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Some locally heavy rain possible with strong/severe storms not out of the question. Mild and windy. Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-2" range likely across the area. Locally heavier rain possible in some counties.
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
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Tuesday and Tuesday night will bring colder temperatures to our region. This is behind the cold front that brought our rain on Monday. Rainfall totals of 0.10-0.30" were widespread over the area - especially the central and eastern half of the area.
The next storm - that we have been talking about for quite some time now - will arrive on Wednesday night and Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of the warm front on Wednesday evening and Wednesday night. These showers and thunderstorms will spread into the region from the west and southwest.
On Thursday the whole storm system will push through the region.
The risk for severe weather will depend on the track of the low. If the low tracks to our north then we have a better risk for strong or severe storms.
If the low tracks to our south then we would mainly be facing moderate to heavy rain.
Right now it appears the low will track over our region or perhaps a little north of our local counties.
That would mean there would be a risk for some strong storms on Thursday.
Rainfall totals on Wednesday night through Friday will likely be in the 1-2". Locally heavier amounts will certainly be possible over portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
Another storm system will approach our regiono n Sunday night or Monday. This storm could also spread more rain and thunderstorms into the region.
Active pattern is underway
Stay tuned for updates...
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
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