Monday, February 21, 2011: Rain today then severe weather possible later this week

February 21, 2011

3 PM Update

Rain is moving through the region - quite widespread at that.  I have picked up 0.18" here at my place in Massac County.

Showers and locally heavy downpours will move east through the evening hours.

Colder air is already filtering into our local counties.  The temperature has fallen to 48 degrees here already.

See radar for live coverage of where the rain is currently falling.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here

-  Beau

February 21, 2011

Monday's update below the special weather statement...

Special statement...

A storm system will approach the region on Thursday and Friday (February 24th/25th) .

This system has the potential to produce widespread rain across the region. Some of this rain may be heavy at times.

There will be a risk for thunderstorms with severe weather if the area of low pressure tracks through or to the north of Kentucky.

The potential exists for several inches of rain on Thursday through Friday. This may cause flash flooding and/or general flooding.

Now is the time to review severe weather awareness information and remind everyone of the dangers of crossing flooded roadways.

- Beau Dodson


Monday's Update Below

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Bottom line it for me Beau...

For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...

                                                                               












The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow:  Chance for a thunderstorms with the cold front - lightning being the main hazard.  Gusty winds not out of the question.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a chance for showers during the early AM hours - rain and thunderstorms increasing during the morning and afternoon hours.  Temperatures will fall during the afternoon hours into the 40s.
Highs: Lower 60s falling during the afternoon into the 40s/50s | Wind: South at 10-20 mph becoming west at 10-20 mph.

Monday night: Rain ending.  Colder.
Lows: Lower to middle 30s | Wind: West/northwest at 10-15 mph.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds.  Cold.
Highs: Highs in the lower 40s | Wind: North at 10-15 mph.

Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.

Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
 
Barometer readings can be viewed here  - Barometer Readings.

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Here is the future-cast radar for the 12 pm - 2 pm time range.  You can see the area of showers and thunderstorms lined up over portions of Missouri and Illinois.

Click image for larger view



I am increasingly concerned about the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rain next Thursday and Friday.  Flash flooding could be a concern for portions of the Ohio Valley.  This event will need to be monitored in the coming days.

It is still too early to determine whether severe thunderstorms will develop late next week - again we will need to fine tune this part of the forecast.

It increasingly appears that a severe weather outbreak will be possible.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined an area that includes our region.  If instability can be reached then severe weather will likely occur.  Large hail, damaging winds, heavy rain, lightning, and tornadoes can not be ruled out on Thursday in or near our region.

Stay tuned for updates...

Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management

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