3 PM Update
Good afternoon everyone! Thanks for the snowfall reports - remember you can email me your location and snowfall totals - beaudodson@usaawx.com also on Twitter you can #nwspah for the Paducah, KY NWS Office
If you are looking for sunny and warm weather - then I am not the guy for you. Winter is not over yet! There are signs "down the road" of some improvement. But - we have to get there first! But then again - who are we kidding? March will be here soon and with March will come warmer temperatures.
Remember - meteorological spring begins March 1st!
A new storm system will impact the region on Sunday into Monday. Rain will develop Sunday afternoon and change to snow on Sunday night and Monday morning.
Currently I am thinking there will be a band of 1-3" of snow over portions of the area with locally 2-4" across a portion of Indiana down into Kentucky. This event will be more east based vs west. Portions of the area may not see much snowfall at all. Less as you go northwest and more as you go east.
The exact position of this band is still in play - so stay tuned for updates.
A big arctic outbreak will move into the region this week with another potential snowstorm on Wednesday and Thursday.
Snow will likely develop Wednesday night and continue into Thursday - several inches are not out of the question with this mid-week storm - followed by single digit temperatures.
We have been talking about this event for several days now and it is starting to come more into focus. I doubt I have a handle on this event until Monday.
Take a look at these snowfall total from this morning - I didn't include all of the reports - but I wanted to show you where a heavy band of snow developed over southeast MO and southern IL. The short range models NAILED this band!
- Beau
February 5, 2011
Snow fell over most of the region overnight - as suspected a band of heavier snow formed over southeast MO and southern IL - the short range models actually caught onto this late last night. I was thinking 2-4 might fall over parts of southeast MO into southern IL but had no idea 4-8 would fall. That is what happens when a heavier band forms and dumps snow over a small area.
Interesting!
Today will be cold - snow will move out of the region this morning. A few flurries will linger - some sun will poke through from time to time.
Sunday afternoon into Monday morning will bring a mixture of rain and snow to our region. Most likely changing to all snow on Sunday night with 2-3" possible over portions of our region.
I am thinking parts of western KY into southern Indiana have the best shot at accumulating snow. Part of this will depend on the strength of the low that forms to our south - this is still in question.
I continue to lean towards a better organized storm system with a deeper and stronger low moving into Tennessee and eventually Kentucky. The track will be key as to where snow vs rain falls.
Don't be surprised if official forecasts start rasing totals for this next event.
Otherwise - cold week ahead of us with a chance for snow on Wednesday and Thursday. Still too early to make a call on whether this will be a significant event in our region.
- Beau
February 5, 2011
Very high confidence in the event for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois and high for western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee - category 1 winter storm. Minor event. This is not a big event - this is a small event and most areas will only see a heavy dusting to an inch or two of snow. There could be a heavier band over part of southeast MO into southern IL and into Indiana - a band of 1-3". - locally higher
Click the above image and it will explain the snowstorm rating scale.
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Note - I have changed my Facebook to BEAU DODSON WEATHER
I am now doing video weather briefings
February 5th Video (will be posted by 10 pm on the 4th)
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: None
The forecast for freezing rain, sleet, or snow today, tonight, and tomorrow: Light snow - periods of moderate snow in spots. I am expecting 1-3" of snow across the region. Most areas will pick up 1-2". A band of heavier snow is likely over parts of southeast MO into southern IL with 2-4" - locally higher.
Forecast:
Saturday - Snow this morning. Snow ending by late morning or early afternoon. Cold. High temperatures only in the lower to middle 30s.
Saturday night - Mostly cloudy. Cold. Lows in the middle 20s.
Sunday - Cloudy. A slight chance for rain or snow - more likely in the evening hours. Cold. Highs in the upper 30s.
Sunday night - Rain and snow likely. Some accumulation possible. Lows around 28-31 degrees.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
Barometer readings can be viewed here - Barometer Readings.
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The ongoing snow event will come to an end later this morning and early afternoon. You can track the snow on the winter weather radars (see link above). Again - this is a minor event for most of us - portions of southeast Missouri into central Indiana could see locally heavier totals as a band sets up in that area.
Weather eyes will then turn towards the Sunday night into Monday event. There are disagreements among forecasters as to the timing of this event. Some forecasters believe it might move in on Sunday morning and others believe the precipitation will hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening.
We will split the difference and continue with a chance of snow/rain on Sunday but lean towards Sunday evening for precipitation to increase.
Now - the question turns towards what type of precipitation will fall. Our temperatures will be marginal for all snow. It appears a mixture of snow and rain will occur and then changing to snow on Sunday night.
I will need to fine tune the forecast as far as accumulation totals. Will lean towards the light side - for now and reevaluate the situation tomorrow. I do believe this system will be stronger than forecast and could produce a band of heavier precipitation in or near our region - more likely central and east vs west. If stronger then it could produce a band of 2-4" of snow. Stay tuned.
Bottom line - some precipitation on Sunday into Monday - most likely Sunday evening into Monday morning.
The ongoing snow event will come to an end later this morning and early afternoon. You can track the snow on the winter weather radars (see link above). Again - this is a minor event for most of us - portions of southeast Missouri into central Indiana could see locally heavier totals as a band sets up in that area.
Weather eyes will then turn towards the Sunday night into Monday event. There are disagreements among forecasters as to the timing of this event. Some forecasters believe it might move in on Sunday morning and others believe the precipitation will hold off until Sunday afternoon and evening.
We will split the difference and continue with a chance of snow/rain on Sunday but lean towards Sunday evening for precipitation to increase.
Now - the question turns towards what type of precipitation will fall. Our temperatures will be marginal for all snow. It appears a mixture of snow and rain will occur and then changing to snow on Sunday night.
I will need to fine tune the forecast as far as accumulation totals. Will lean towards the light side - for now and reevaluate the situation tomorrow. I do believe this system will be stronger than forecast and could produce a band of heavier precipitation in or near our region - more likely central and east vs west. If stronger then it could produce a band of 2-4" of snow. Stay tuned.
Bottom line - some precipitation on Sunday into Monday - most likely Sunday evening into Monday morning.
Another blast of arctic air will arrive later on Monday into Tuesday - followed by a possible significant winter storm towards the middle of next week - followed by yet even colder air.
There are concerns about the possibility of extreme cold next week - perhaps the coldest air of the winter season - thus far. I know that is hard to believe!
This will be more likely if we have snow on the ground.
Another storm system may bring snow to our region towards the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. This could be a significant event for portions of the United States.
Stay tuned for updates on this event. I will update the blog a few times a day (now that I am back home).
I posted this map last night - but it is worth posting again :) - this shows just how much below normal we are expecting the temperatures to be next week.
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
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