Severe storms with damage moving through west KY and west TN
Latest warnings - hit refresh
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
- Beau
February 24, 2011
535 PM
New tornado watch for west KY
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0015.html
February 24, 2011
510 PM
Tornadic supercell entering the Missouri Bootheel - tornado warnings have been issued
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Warnings
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
February 24, 2011
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2 PM
Here is a rainfall total forecast for the next 12 hours (this image includes the last four hours of rainfall, as well) - as you can see there are several bands of heavy rain.
Also here is a future cast radar showing some supercells in western Tennessee late this afternoon - these could pose a tornado threat and will need to be monitored
Then later this evening a squall line will push across the region - highest impact from this would be the southern half of the area - say from Cape Girardeau to Golconda and then southward
Here is the future-cast radar showing that squall line (later this evening)
Temperatures have risen to above 70 degrees over portions of western Tennessee - near Memphis. The boundary is slowly moving northward.
Rain continues to fall over much of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and parts of western Kentucky.
The main band of heavier precipitation has shifted northward a bit - out of western Kentucky and into parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
I am nearing 1 1/2" here at my place.
Flash flooding has been reported in the Missouri Bootheel and northeast Arkansas into parts of western Tennessee.
Flash flood watches continue into tonight for much of our region.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued their afternoon severe weather outlook. They continue the moderate risk for portions of western Kentucky - southward into Arkansas and Tennessee/Mississippi.
Everything still points towards the highest risk for severe storms to be over Arkansas and Tennessee - then it may nudge into the Missouri Bootheel and portions of Kentucky.
This continues to be closely monitored.
Satellite imagery shows some breaks in the clouds over Arkansas and western Tennessee/northern Mississippi. This is helping to destabilize the atmosphere.
Thunderstorms are forming a line across Arkansas into Texas. This line of thunderstorms will push east northeast into the afternoon and evening hours.
A tornado watch has also been issued for much of Arkansas.
Any threat for severe weather in western Kentucky would likely hold off until after 6 pm.
The rest of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois will have a small risk of severe thunderstorms tonight, as well.
Additional rainfall totals through midnight tonight will range from 1-3". Locally heavier amounts are possible in the most extreme downpours.
Stay tuned to local media and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest updates
You can find radar links and other links below...
- Beau
February 24, 2011
Long range shows multiple storm systems over the next 14 days. This could be a concern for flooding in the large and small river basins.
- Beau
February 24, 2011
10 AM Update
I have updated the video
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
Watching some clearing over AR/TN - that will help make the atmosphere unstable over that region.
Rain continues to fall over our local counties. Already numerous reports of 1-2" of rain. Portions of northeast AR and western TN have received 2-4" of rain.
Additional rainfall totals of 1-3" are likely over the next 12-18 hours for most of our counties in far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and western KY and western TN - northeast AR.
Rainfall totals when all is said and done should be in the 2-4" range for many counties under the flash flood watch with pockets of 4-6" likely over the northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and western Tennessee.
The highest risk for severe storms will arrive later this afternoon and tonight. The further south you go in the region the better the risk for severe storms.
The Storm Prediction Center will issue a new severe weather outlook at 11 am. At that time we will see where they believe the highest risk for severe storms will be placed.
See the video for graphics.
- Beau
February 24, 2011
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Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Another heavy rain and severe weather event is possible Sunday and Monday...
The blog will be updated every 2-4 hours today
Flash flood watches cover much of the area
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3 inches with some areas picking up 3-5" of rain.
Highest severe thunderstorm risk will arrive later today into this evening...
Questions remain on how much instability there will be later today. When the sun comes out in portions of the severe weather risk area - the atmosphere will heat up a bit. This causes the air to become unstable. Unstable air is more likely to produce severe storms. So - you need instability to help produce severe thunderstorms.
The more unstable the air becomes in Arkansas into Tennessee/Kentucky then the better chance for severe storms. We likely won't know how much instability there will be until a few more hours. I am currently waiting on the first visible satellite images to arrive. That will tell me what conditions are like over Arkansas.
Again - I will update the blog through the day.
My biggest concern area has not changed a bit - the bright red area on my video weather briefing from the last 2 or 3 days - remains the same. This covers the Missouri Bootheel - portions of Kentucky - portions of Tennessee - Arkansas and Mississippi/Alabama.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook - remember they have 3 levels of risk. Slight - Moderate and High. They currently have portions of our region in a slight and moderate risk.
For the latest watches and warnings check your local NWS Office
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php#maps
I will be on the Facebook page giving updates and answering questions
Here is the link
http://www.facebook.com/beaudodsonweather
Area residents should remember not to cross flooded roadways in the event we have heavy rain over the next 48 hours...
We want everyone to be safe - as always! :)
Weather radar can be viewed here
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull for some of our counties - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Some locally heavy rain likely with strong/severe storms not out of the question. Mild and windy. Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-3" range likely across the area. Locally heavier rain possible in some counties totaling 3-5". Flash flood watch continues
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe - especially over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky. Severe weather likely in Arkansas and Tennessee. Hail, high winds, and tornadoes possible. Flash flood watch for much of our region.
Lows: temperatures rising into the 60s and then falling into the 40s behind the front | Wind: South winds at 15-30 mph becoming west at 15-25 mph - gusts over 30 mph.
You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Chance for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Hail, high winds, and tornadoes possible especially over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky. Severe weather likely in Arkansas and Tennessee.
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Chance for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Hail, high winds, and tornadoes possible especially over the Missouri Bootheel into Kentucky. Severe weather likely in Arkansas and Tennessee.
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
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Active pattern is underway. After this event there will be another significant event on Sunday into Monday. Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are possible with the late weekend storm.
Stay tuned for updates...
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
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