February 23, 2011
11 PM Update
This is the latest statement sent out to the Transportation Cabinet
February 24, 2011 Update
A strong storm system is already spreading heavy showers and thunderstorms into Arkansas and Tennessee early this morning. This area of showers and thunderstorms will spread into Kentucky between 1 am and 5 am this morning.
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Rain will come in waves today into tonight. There may be a lull in the precipitation in some of our counties on Thursday late morning and Thursday afternoon. Then more rain will spread back into the region.
Much of the State of Kentucky is now under a flash flood watch. Rainfall totals of 1-3" will likely occur in most counties. The southeast portion of Kentucky will likely be spared the excessive rains.
There will be pockets of rainfall totals of 3-5" in some of the counties within the flash flood watch. It will be difficult to determine which counties will receive the heaviest totals until the band actually sets up through the day.
In addition to the flash flood threat there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday evening and Thursday night. This will be highly dependent on the location of the warm front and the track of the area of low pressure.
Tornadoes will be possible along and south of the warm front. The highest threat area for tornadoes will likely be in Arkansas and Tennessee. This will need to be closely monitored.
Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local National Weather Service Offices for the latest updates as this storm unfolds through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night.
Review flash flood safety rules.
Transportation Cabinet Rainfall Forecasts
Districts 1 2, 3, 4, and portions of District 7 may experience widespread 2-3" of rain with a better chance of some 3-5" reports not out of the question otherwise
Districts 5, 6, 7, (northern part of 8) - rainfall totals of 1-3" widespread. Pockets of 3-5"+
Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 - rainfall totals of 1" could be a few spots of higher rain.
Rain will move out of the state on Thursday night and Friday from west to east. The rain will move out of the eastern portion of the state by Friday afternoon.
Another large and significant weather event is likely to occur on Sunday and Monday. This storm system will spread heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms back into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Obviously any additional rainfall on top of this first event will only compound the problems.
Additional flash flood watches and/or flood watches may be needed for Sunday and or Monday.
Transportation Cabinet Officials should closely monitor this unfolding weather situation from now into the weekend.
Beau Dodson
Meteorologist
You can view radar by visiting this site
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
9 PM Update
No changes in tonights data
Main threat will be heavy rain
Questions on severe weather - most likely over the area outlined in deep red on my video update - AR/TN
Whether severe weather threat will enter KY will probably not be known until tomorrow morning.
The time period for severe weather would be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Another chance for severe weather and heavy rain on Sunday/Monday
- Beau
We have been advertising this next storm system for over 10 days now. Long time - the big events always seem to be that way.
Don't forget we have also been tracking a second event for Sunday/Monday. Another big storm is likely to occur at that time.
Video has been updated...
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
February 23, 2011
5 PM Update
Crunching some new numbers - I am concerned about the tornado threat for portions of AR and TN. The question mark continues to be the Missouri Bootheel and Kentucky.
Latest data wants to shift the low a tad further north - this would definitely raise concerns for western Kentucky into south central Kentucky.
The NWS has now expanded the flash flood watch further north to include more of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
No change in my previous forecast for rainfall totals - if anything I have increased them since the video last night.
I will have a full update tonight between 9 pm and 10 pm and will be covering this event from early tomorrow morning right on through tomorrow evening.
For the latest watches and warnings please tune into your local National Weather Service web-site and NOAA Weather Radio.
- Beau
February 23, 2011
Blog is best viewed using Mozilla Firefox because of spacing issues with Internet Explorer.
1 PM Update
No changes - new Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow shows the best risk for severe storms just south of the KY/TN line. VERY close.
The rest of the area is in a risk for severe storms - hail and high winds being the main threat.
We will have to monitor this closely. Tornadoes are possible tomorrow in or near our region. Stay updated as the event unfolds.
Rainfall totals across far southeast MO and southern IL - Kentucky - Tennessee will range from 1-3" with some areas picking up 3+ inches of rain.
The new European Computer Model shows over 3" of rain for the City of Paducah.
Flash flooding will be possible over our area (southeast MO, southern IL, Kentucky and Tennessee)
Here are some new graphics from the Storm Prediction Center - remember the SPC are the ones that issue the severe weather outlooks. They have three levels of risk - slight and then moderate and then high.
Slight risk means that severe weather will most likely occur but not be as widespread
Moderate risk means that widespread severe weather is possible
High risk means that a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely
Don't pay too much attention to the risk levels - just remember that it means severe weather will be possible and pay attention for updates.
The severe weather outlook for Thursday - you can see a slight and moderate risk over our area.
They also issue probabilities - you can see that they are quite high for portions of the region. Probabilities indicate the chances of an event within 25 miles of any given point. You can see a 45% contour on the map (again that is quite high and means that the forecasters are confident that severe weather will likely occur) More information on this map - click here
And finally here is the 5 day rainfall outlook - impressive totals
- Beau
February 23, 2011
10 AM
Temperatures have risen above freezing over most counties - so the threat for frozen precipitation is limited to the far northern counties.
Our big storm that we have been talking about for the last week and a half if now approaching the region. It appears as juicy as ever.
A flash flood watch has been issued for much of western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri
The watch outline can be viewed here
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Additional heavy rain is likely on Sunday/Monday.
- Beau
February 23, 2011
Area residents should remember not to cross flooded roadways in the event we have heavy rain over the next 48 hours...
We want everyone to be safe - as always! :)
11 PM Update
This is the latest statement sent out to the Transportation Cabinet
February 24, 2011 Update
A strong storm system is already spreading heavy showers and thunderstorms into Arkansas and Tennessee early this morning. This area of showers and thunderstorms will spread into Kentucky between 1 am and 5 am this morning.
Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Rain will come in waves today into tonight. There may be a lull in the precipitation in some of our counties on Thursday late morning and Thursday afternoon. Then more rain will spread back into the region.
Much of the State of Kentucky is now under a flash flood watch. Rainfall totals of 1-3" will likely occur in most counties. The southeast portion of Kentucky will likely be spared the excessive rains.
There will be pockets of rainfall totals of 3-5" in some of the counties within the flash flood watch. It will be difficult to determine which counties will receive the heaviest totals until the band actually sets up through the day.
In addition to the flash flood threat there will be a risk for severe thunderstorms on Thursday evening and Thursday night. This will be highly dependent on the location of the warm front and the track of the area of low pressure.
Tornadoes will be possible along and south of the warm front. The highest threat area for tornadoes will likely be in Arkansas and Tennessee. This will need to be closely monitored.
Listen to NOAA Weather Radio and local National Weather Service Offices for the latest updates as this storm unfolds through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night.
Review flash flood safety rules.
Transportation Cabinet Rainfall Forecasts
Districts 1 2, 3, 4, and portions of District 7 may experience widespread 2-3" of rain with a better chance of some 3-5" reports not out of the question otherwise
Districts 5, 6, 7, (northern part of 8) - rainfall totals of 1-3" widespread. Pockets of 3-5"+
Districts 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 - rainfall totals of 1" could be a few spots of higher rain.
Rain will move out of the state on Thursday night and Friday from west to east. The rain will move out of the eastern portion of the state by Friday afternoon.
Another large and significant weather event is likely to occur on Sunday and Monday. This storm system will spread heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms back into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Obviously any additional rainfall on top of this first event will only compound the problems.
Additional flash flood watches and/or flood watches may be needed for Sunday and or Monday.
Transportation Cabinet Officials should closely monitor this unfolding weather situation from now into the weekend.
Beau Dodson
Meteorologist
You can view radar by visiting this site
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
9 PM Update
No changes in tonights data
Main threat will be heavy rain
Questions on severe weather - most likely over the area outlined in deep red on my video update - AR/TN
Whether severe weather threat will enter KY will probably not be known until tomorrow morning.
The time period for severe weather would be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.
Another chance for severe weather and heavy rain on Sunday/Monday
- Beau
We have been advertising this next storm system for over 10 days now. Long time - the big events always seem to be that way.
Don't forget we have also been tracking a second event for Sunday/Monday. Another big storm is likely to occur at that time.
Video has been updated...
http://weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm
February 23, 2011
5 PM Update
Crunching some new numbers - I am concerned about the tornado threat for portions of AR and TN. The question mark continues to be the Missouri Bootheel and Kentucky.
Latest data wants to shift the low a tad further north - this would definitely raise concerns for western Kentucky into south central Kentucky.
The NWS has now expanded the flash flood watch further north to include more of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
No change in my previous forecast for rainfall totals - if anything I have increased them since the video last night.
I will have a full update tonight between 9 pm and 10 pm and will be covering this event from early tomorrow morning right on through tomorrow evening.
For the latest watches and warnings please tune into your local National Weather Service web-site and NOAA Weather Radio.
- Beau
February 23, 2011
Blog is best viewed using Mozilla Firefox because of spacing issues with Internet Explorer.
1 PM Update
No changes - new Storm Prediction Center outlook for tomorrow shows the best risk for severe storms just south of the KY/TN line. VERY close.
The rest of the area is in a risk for severe storms - hail and high winds being the main threat.
We will have to monitor this closely. Tornadoes are possible tomorrow in or near our region. Stay updated as the event unfolds.
Rainfall totals across far southeast MO and southern IL - Kentucky - Tennessee will range from 1-3" with some areas picking up 3+ inches of rain.
The new European Computer Model shows over 3" of rain for the City of Paducah.
Flash flooding will be possible over our area (southeast MO, southern IL, Kentucky and Tennessee)
Here are some new graphics from the Storm Prediction Center - remember the SPC are the ones that issue the severe weather outlooks. They have three levels of risk - slight and then moderate and then high.
Slight risk means that severe weather will most likely occur but not be as widespread
Moderate risk means that widespread severe weather is possible
High risk means that a significant outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely
Don't pay too much attention to the risk levels - just remember that it means severe weather will be possible and pay attention for updates.
The severe weather outlook for Thursday - you can see a slight and moderate risk over our area.
They also issue probabilities - you can see that they are quite high for portions of the region. Probabilities indicate the chances of an event within 25 miles of any given point. You can see a 45% contour on the map (again that is quite high and means that the forecasters are confident that severe weather will likely occur) More information on this map - click here
And finally here is the 5 day rainfall outlook - impressive totals
- Beau
February 23, 2011
10 AM
Temperatures have risen above freezing over most counties - so the threat for frozen precipitation is limited to the far northern counties.
Our big storm that we have been talking about for the last week and a half if now approaching the region. It appears as juicy as ever.
A flash flood watch has been issued for much of western Kentucky and far southeast Missouri
The watch outline can be viewed here
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Additional heavy rain is likely on Sunday/Monday.
- Beau
February 23, 2011
Area residents should remember not to cross flooded roadways in the event we have heavy rain over the next 48 hours...
We want everyone to be safe - as always! :)
Wednesday: A slight chance for amixture of sleet and freezing rain early changing to scattered rain.
Highs: Highs in the lower 50s | Wind: Southeast winds at 10-15 mph.
Wednesday night: Rain re-developing - 100% chance of rain late. A chance for thunder. Milder and breezy.
Lows: Lower 50s with temperatures rising through the night | Wind: South/southeast winds at 10-15 mph. Gusts to 25 mph.
Thursday: A 100% chance for showers and thunderstorms early - then a lull - then showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon and evening hours. Some locally heavy rain possible with strong/severe storms not out of the question. Mild and windy. Rainfall totals by Friday morning in the 1-2" range likely across the area. Locally heavier rain possible in some counties.
Highs: Highs in the lower to middle 60s | Wind: South winds at 15-20 mph.
This blog is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox
You can find me on Twitter under Beau Dodson
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
You can find me on Facebook under Beau Dodson Weather - hit LIKE at the top of the page
Video has been posted and updated on the Weather Observatory web-site.
Bottom line it for me Beau...
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and Thursday. Some heavy rain is possible and possibly strong storms. Stay tuned
For southern Illinois and far western Kentucky...
The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for today, tonight, and tomorrow: Thunderstorm chances increase on Wednesday night and Thursday. Some heavy rain is possible and possibly strong storms. Stay tuned
Your up to the minute National Weather Service seven day forecast (note this may differ from my forecast from time to time) for southern Illinois and western Kentucky can be viewed by clicking here.
Your regional and local radars - including our new precipitation type radar - click here
----------------------------------------------
Active pattern is underway
Stay tuned for updates...
Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management--------------
For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office http://www.weather.gov/organization.php
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click here
To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click here
Other States - Click Here
This site is non-profit and brought to you as a public service.
No comments:
Post a Comment