September 30, 2011: A cool weekend ahead - windy at times. Enjoy!

September 30, 2011:
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DAILY VIDEOS are back (blog in the evening and video in the morning) - you can view them on my Facebook page each morning (best on full screen view) or on the Weather Observatory web-site - click here
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This page is best viewed with Mozilla Firefox.  There could be issues with spacing on Internet Explorer
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This forecast covers far southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee - for your local town/area - click here
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Here are my current personal forecast thoughts for far southern Illinois and western Kentucky...
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Thursday night:  A few clouds.  Slight chance for a shower/sprinkle over the north/northeast part of the area (Indiana region).  Below normal temperatures.
Lows:  in the 45-51 degree range.  |  Wind: Becoming northwest at 10-20 mph.  Normal lows for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 10%
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Friday:  A few clouds otherwise sunny - cooler - windy at times.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  in the 65-70 degree range.  |  Wind:  Northwest/north winds at 10-20 mph - gusty at times.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degreesPrecipitation probability - 0%
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Friday night:  Mostly clear and cool.  Below normal temperatures.
Lows: around 39-44 degrees  |  Wind:  North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. Normal lows for this time of the year are around 54 degrees.  Precipitation probability - 0%.
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Saturday: A few clouds.  Cool.  Below normal temperatures.
Highs:  around 59-64 degrees. |  Wind: North winds at 10-15 mph - gusty.  Normal highs for this time of the year are around 78 degrees.   Precipitation probability - 0%
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Tweaked the thunderstorm chance more towards Indiana tonight as the cold front moves in.  Tweaked temperatures a bit.  Many areas may see upper 30s and lower 40s on Sunday morning.  Video's are being posted again (each morning - blog is evening and video is morning)
Link:  http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-video.htm 



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Forecast for your local town/city - Click Here
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Join me on Facebook for more frequent updates on the weather in our local area
Click Here
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The forecast for severe or extreme weather risk for the next 24 hours... 


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For the most up to date severe weather outlooks - click here.
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Visit the Storm Prediction Center's web-site - click here
 
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Thursday night:
  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday:  Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Friday night:
 
Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Saturday:   Severe weather is not anticipated
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You can view the most up to date graphics - clicking here.
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To view all watches and warnings in IL -  Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in KY - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in MO - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in TN - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here
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The map you see below can be viewed by clicking on the watch and warnings map links above.  The maps are interactive and you can move around the United States by simply clicking on the national map - or from the pull down menu where it says regions and US States - again this map is a sample map.  To view the actual interactive map - click here.
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HEADLINE:  The cold front is knocking on our door this afternoon and evening.  It will move to the southeast tonight and cross the Ohio Valley.  This means cooler temperatures and gusty winds over the next few days.  It will feel like fall.
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Most of the precipitation with this front should remain just to our northeast - over parts of Indiana and perhaps northern Kentucky.
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Looking at all of the data this afternoon it appears that we have a decent shot at seeing low temperatures into the 30s on Sunday morning.  There could also be some patches of fog near area lakes and rivers on both Sunday and Monday.
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Here is one chart from the SREF Plume - showing temperature forecast from the different ensembles means - you can see that they do try to get us down into the 30s on Sunday morning.  Just a taste of fall.  Click chart for real size image.
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Winds will be gusty at times on Thursday night and Friday.  Would not be surprised to see some 25-30 mph gusts behind the cold front.  If you are boating then use caution.
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Here is the visible satellite image as of 1:30 pm - you can see the white to our north - those are clouds.  The numbers represent current surface temperatures.  The cold front is right near/along the cloud bank.  Those clouds will push through the area later this evening/overnight.  Click image for real-view size.
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We have a TON of new weather maps on the Weather Observatory web-site - these include temperatures, wind speed, dew points, heat index, barometric pressure, predicted rainfall, climate forecast, medium and long range maps, forecasts and more!  Click here 
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The McCracken County Office of Emergency Management reminds you that owning a NOAA Weather Radio is the best way to receive notifications of severe weather watches and warnings.

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A cool weekend ahead for the region - some gusty winds, as well.  If you are out on area lakes then just be aware of wind conditions.  Would not be surprised to see some gusts over 20 mph - perhaps even 30 mph in some areas!


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Let's check out the how much rain is forecast to fall over the next 24 hours.  This map gives you a general broad brushed idea of what can be expected.
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If you would like to view the most up to date 24, 48, 72, and 120 hour maps then click here.
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I have added thunderstorm probabilities to the web-site - you can click hour by hour and see where the best chances for thunderstorms will exist.  Here is the link - you can also choose your own region by clicking on a state.


ALSO NOW AVAILABLE - Six hour probability precipitation maps.
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You can also now view the probability of X amount of rain (you pick the value on the web-site) in a six hour period of time.  Those maps can be viewed here
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You can view the upcoming days high temperatures and low temperature forecasts by clicking here - choose the day - click on your state to zoom in - LINK
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Also the UV forecast for those interested - click here




We have a number of new radars available on our Weather Observatory web-site!
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We now offer St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, and Dyersburg Interactive City Radars.  We also have the two regional radars and now offer you three GR Earth radars.

http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm---
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We  also have a new interactive radar - you can view that radar by clicking here.
Want to learn more about how to use our radars?  I made a how to video with more information
Click here - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfLa0hI3adU
 
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Drought continues across a large chunk of real estate.  This has been a concern for quite some time now.  Droughts tend to creep.  Many of you have witnessed the extreme fire conditions over portions of Texas and Oklahoma on the different news outlets.  I have been watching this drought slowly creep north and east over the last few months.  This will need to be monitored as we move into the fall and winter months.
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Here is the latest soil moisture anomalies map.  Severe drought continues over Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and parts of Arkansas.  The areas in green are moist regions - the areas in orange and yellow are in need of rain.  The recent rains in our area have helped our cause to push back the drought to our south and west.
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Let's take a quick look at the percent of normal rainfall chart for the month - thus far.  This tells you how much above or below normal we are in the rainfall department.  You can see that we are QUITE a bit above normal.
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You can view these and more drought maps on the Weather Observatory web-site by clicking here

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You can learn more about the current drought by visiting this Climate Prediction Center website - click here.
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1.  No big events in the near term forecast.  Watching a system for late next week.  Long way off - plenty of time to monitor.  Enjoy the fall like weather over the coming days.
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We normally see an uptick during the fall months - will keep an eye.  Don't forget that September is preparedness month.  For more information on the different types of severe weather that can impact our region - click here.
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Now is a GREAT time to buy a NOAA Weather Radio.  Better to have one before storms strike than to be without one during an event.
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Meteorologist Beau Dodson
McCracken County Office of Emergency Management
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To view all watches and warnings in Illinois - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Kentucky - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Missouri - Click Here
To view all watches and warnings in Tennessee - Click Here

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All other states- Click Here

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For the latest watches and warnings please visit your local National Weather Service Office web-site
http://www.weather.gov/organization.php

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